Alamogordo, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

954
FXUS64 KEPZ 311137
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
537 AM MDT Sat May 31 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

 -  Thunderstorms will be more confined to the higher terrain
    areas Saturday and Sunday with isolated activity over the
    desert lowlands.

 -  Drier and warmer conditions expected Tuesday through
    Thursday.

 -  Confidence is increasing that temperatures return to the
    triple digits next Friday and into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 154 AM MDT Sat May 31 2025

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms remain in the
forecast for the next few days. Then we transition to a more hot
and dry like pattern during the middle and end of next week,
typical for this time of year.

For today, benign upper level flow aloft will overlay southern NM
and west TX with very little forcing and not as rich of moisture
in the low levels. This coupled with a slight warming and drying
trending in the mid levels will diminish rain chances across the
desert lowlands Saturday afternoon and evening. Forecast model
soundings show that warming/drying layer at about 500mb during the
afternoon and evening, inhibiting development across the desert
lowlands. That said, afternoon isolated/scattered convection over
the Sacramento and Gila Mountains will likely push outflow
boundaries across the lowlands. Any outflow boundary interaction
over the lowlands could induce an isolated shower/storm or two
during the evening timeframe. Hence the reduction in PoP coverage
across the lowlands and focusing over areas along and east of the
RGV.

Much of the same can be expected on Sunday, with the focus in
isolated shower/storm coverage switching to areas across
southwestern NM during the afternoon. By Sunday night into Monday,
the upper level closed low over AZ/NV/CA vicinity will begin to
open up into a wave and slowly lift north and east. As it does so,
increased mid level moisture will advect in across NM Sunday
night into Monday morning. Rain chances will increase area wide
during that timeframe with isolated to scattered showers and
embedded thunderstorms expected. Rain chances quickly diminish
through the day on Monday as drier air aloft quickly infiltrates
the region.

The next upper level system will move across the Desert Southwest
during the Tuesday into Wednesday timeframe, bringing with it
isolated rain chances across northern portions of the CWA before
quickly exiting the region Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Warming temperatures and dry weather conditions will be the theme
through the remainder of the forecast period as the sub-tropical
high begins to form and anchor over the northern half of Mexico.
This will mean hot temperatures returning to the Borderland Region
late next work week into the weekend. Confidence is increasing
that high temperatures will increase above 100 degrees late next
week,

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 531 AM MDT Sat May 31 2025

VFR conditions expected through the period. VIS reductions ongoing
at KTCS/KDMN/KLRU due to HZ from overnight BLDU, HZ should
diminish just after sunrise. Skies generally FEW-SCT at 10-15 kft
and SCT-BKN at 20-25 kft, SCT-BKN 10-15 kft during the afternoon
CU development. Winds light and VRB through the morning, becoming
southerly at 7-12 knots during the afternoon and evening. Daytime
heating will make for CU development aft 18Z, mainly over area high
terrain. AFT 19-20Z ISOL/SCT SHRA/TSRA development, generally over
area mountains and areas to the north. Chances for RA/TS over any
terminal will be quite low, but still possible, and will be handled
in subsequent TAF issuance amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 154 AM MDT Sat May 31 2025

Fire weather concerns are LOW through the weekend and into early
next week. Isolated to scattered shower/storm activity over the
high terrain with isolated convection expected over the lowlands
on Saturday through Monday. Main threats will be gusty/erratic
outflow winds and lightning. Min RH values will vary depending on
location, with areas along and west of the RGV between 13-23
percent and areas east between 17-37 percent on Saturday, with
similar RH values on Sunday and Monday. Overnight recoveries will
be good to excellent each morning. General winds will be
southerly each after at 5-15 mph, with more terrain and drainage
influence over the high terrain. Slightly stronger and more
southwesterly wind expected on Monday.

Drier and warmer weather conditions heading middle and end of next
week with a return of Elevated fire weather conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  95  72  97  72 /  20  20  10  40
Sierra Blanca            87  62  91  65 /  20  20  10  30
Las Cruces               91  64  93  65 /  10  20  10  40
Alamogordo               91  64  95  64 /  30  10  10  30
Cloudcroft               68  49  71  49 /  40  10  40  30
Truth or Consequences    93  66  94  66 /  10  10  20  50
Silver City              86  59  87  57 /  10  10  30  60
Deming                   94  64  95  65 /  10  10  20  50
Lordsburg                93  62  92  61 /  10  10  20  60
West El Paso Metro       92  72  95  71 /  20  20  10  40
Dell City                91  63  95  67 /  30  20  10  20
Fort Hancock             95  67  98  69 /  20  20  10  30
Loma Linda               86  65  89  65 /  20  20  10  40
Fabens                   94  67  97  70 /  20  20  10  40
Santa Teresa             91  66  94  67 /  20  20  20  40
White Sands HQ           93  72  95  71 /  20  20  10  40
Jornada Range            92  63  95  63 /  20  20  10  40
Hatch                    95  63  97  65 /  10  10  20  40
Columbus                 93  68  95  68 /  10  10  20  50
Orogrande                91  65  93  67 /  20  20  10  40
Mayhill                  78  54  82  54 /  50  10  30  30
Mescalero                79  54  82  53 /  40  10  30  30
Timberon                 77  50  80  51 /  40  10  20  40
Winston                  85  52  86  51 /  20  10  30  60
Hillsboro                91  61  93  59 /  10  10  20  50
Spaceport                92  61  94  61 /  10  10  10  50
Lake Roberts             88  54  88  53 /  20  10  30  50
Hurley                   89  58  89  57 /  10  10  20  50
Cliff                    93  59  93  58 /  10  10  20  50
Mule Creek               90  58  89  57 /  10  10  20  60
Faywood                  88  61  89  60 /  10  10  20  50
Animas                   93  64  91  62 /  10  10  20  60
Hachita                  91  62  91  62 /  10  10  30  60
Antelope Wells           91  62  90  61 /  20  20  50  60
Cloverdale               87  62  85  59 /  20  20  40  60

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...38-Rogers