Alamogordo, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

081
FXUS64 KEPZ 140502
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1102 PM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1025 PM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025

 - An overall increase in thunderstorm activity is expected
   through the week, with the usual potential monsoon hazards of
   heavy rainfall with localized flooding, gusty winds, and
   localized blowing dust.

 - With the return of moisture and increased cloudiness, daytime
   temperatures will drop back towards mid-July normals for today
   and through next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1025 PM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025

The area will continue to be sandwiched between two upper high
pressure systems Monday keeping moisture in place over the area.
Lingering convection tonight may help keep clouds largely socked in
through much of the morning and possibly into the early afternoon
hours. If clouds can stay socked in, this will help to delay storms
and depending on how cloudy the area can stay, this will help
suppress convection too allowing for less storms. On the other hand,
cloudy skies that clear out mid-afternoon will add more instability
to storms. CAMs are suggesting storms will initiate over the area
mountains with lesser activity heading into the mid to late
afternoon hours presumably from the cloud cover. Heading into
Tuesday, a small upper low will shift westward just off shore of
Baja California which will weaken the ridge over the desert
southwest. An easterly wave progressing over the Gulf of Mexico will
create a weakness in the other ridge to our east Tuesday. Tuesday
and Wednesday will continue with the afternoon monsoonal
thunderstorm chances but by Thursday this weak low pressure looks to
slowly meander and spin away until where it takes a northerly
trajectory centered over northern Baja and southern California.
This will help bring a focus for moisture and storms wherever this
moisture plume sets up. This will also increase our PWs to above
average which will increase the flash flooding threat with
thunderstorms. This added upper level support could keep
thunderstorms/showers going overnight Thursday into Friday. It
looks like we keep thunderstorm chances each day through the
remainder of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1025 PM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Late night outflows are triggering off more thunderstorms tonight
with lingering showers behind it. Activity should be done by
around 10Z with lingering clouds left to stay through much of the
morning hours. How widespread and intense storms will be tomorrow will
be dependent on how slow/fast clouds can clear out. Can expect at
least storms popping up over the area mountains with isolated to
scattered lowland storms but does look less intense and less
widespread as what we saw today.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1037 AM MDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Moisture will remain elevated throughout the period, keeping
minimum relative humidity values in the mid to upper teens for
most zones, and higher with storm activity. Daily chances for
scattered thunderstorms will be present, with gusty outflow winds
being the primary concern outside of brief heavy rainfall.
Venting conditions will generally range from poor to fair, with
some periods of very good venting, especially westward. Consistent
rainfall chances will temper critical fire weather conditions,
but localized strong winds from thunderstorms still pose a risk
for rapid fire spread should a new ignition occur. Additionally,
lightning into receptive fuel beds may create new starts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  98  73  95  74 /  40  50  30  20
Sierra Blanca            89  63  87  65 /  50  40  20  10
Las Cruces               96  68  92  69 /  50  60  30  30
Alamogordo               94  65  91  67 /  50  40  50  10
Cloudcroft               71  49  67  49 /  60  30  80  10
Truth or Consequences    96  68  92  69 /  40  60  40  30
Silver City              91  60  86  62 /  80  60  80  50
Deming                   99  68  95  68 /  50  60  50  50
Lordsburg                98  67  92  67 /  50  60  60  60
West El Paso Metro       96  73  93  74 /  40  40  30  20
Dell City                94  68  91  69 /  30  20  20  10
Fort Hancock             97  71  95  73 /  50  40  30  20
Loma Linda               88  65  85  66 /  40  40  40  10
Fabens                   96  71  94  72 /  40  40  20  10
Santa Teresa             95  71  92  72 /  40  50  30  30
White Sands HQ           96  71  92  74 /  40  50  40  20
Jornada Range            96  67  92  69 /  40  50  40  20
Hatch                    99  68  95  69 /  50  60  40  30
Columbus                 99  70  94  71 /  50  70  30  50
Orogrande                92  66  90  68 /  50  40  40  10
Mayhill                  81  54  77  54 /  70  30  80  10
Mescalero                83  54  79  54 /  60  40  80  10
Timberon                 78  53  75  53 /  70  40  70  10
Winston                  88  56  85  56 /  60  60  70  40
Hillsboro                94  63  90  64 /  50  60  60  40
Spaceport                95  65  92  67 /  30  60  40  20
Lake Roberts             92  56  87  57 /  80  60  80  50
Hurley                   94  62  89  63 /  70  50  70  50
Cliff                    99  64  93  65 /  70  60  80  50
Mule Creek               96  62  90  62 /  70  50  80  50
Faywood                  92  63  87  64 /  70  50  70  50
Animas                   99  66  93  67 /  50  60  60  60
Hachita                  97  65  91  67 /  50  60  60  50
Antelope Wells           96  65  91  66 /  60  80  60  70
Cloverdale               91  63  87  63 /  60  80  70  80

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...37-Slusher