Alamogordo, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

601
FXUS64 KEPZ 290422
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1022 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1004 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026

 - Isolated showers and storms focusing over Hudspeth County
   through midweek, otherwise dry and somewhat breezy.

 - Seasonal temperatures through the workweek, then warming to
   above normal for the holiday weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1004 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026

A stagnant weather pattern is modeled for much of the week with
strong high pressure aloft over the Ohio Valley and troughing over
the Northwest. This will set up somewhat of a battle between moist,
SE flow from the Gulf and dry, SW flow to the west. Areas E of the
US-54 corridor will keep slight rain/storm chances into midweek as a
modest moisture plume sets up over the southern high plains.
Hudspeth County will have the best chances of storms each day
through Wed, but only 10-20% as PWs hold steady at or just above 1".
Gusty outflows and blowing dust from the east will be the primary
hazards for the RGV. Winds remain on the breezy side from the
southwest for western NM through midweek with very dry air moving
in Wed/Thu (elevated-near critical fire wx).

The moisture plume is modeled to fizzle out later in the week as the
upper high migrates west towards the Four Corners region, bringing
temperatures back above normal. The exact placement of the high will
determine what our storm chances will be, but the mountains should
be favored. Most of the area should be dry and hotter for next
weekend. Highs will climb back to near or above 100F for the
lowlands late in the period. Outside of outflows, winds will be
generally light later in the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1004 PM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026

The outflow continues to progress NW towards KTCS and KDMN. It`ll
struggle to reach KDMN due to the prevailing westerlies, but KTCS
should see a wind shift to S soon. Isolated -SHRA linger SE of
KELP tonight over Hudspeth County, keeping the terminal dry.
Occasional gustiness tonight to 20kts from SW, especially for
KELP, then more consistent gusts to 20-25kts during the day for
all terminals. FEW CU develop in the afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Critical fire weather conditions across Southwest New Mexico this
afternoon with southwest winds 15 to 25 mph and Min RH 12 to 18%
causing a few hours of Red Flag criteria for Gila NF and portions
of Grant/Sierra/Catron Counties. Fuel moisture is currently at
climatological peak dryness and ongoing drought across western New
Mexico has ERCs at the 90th percentile. Wildfire growth will be
possible next few days.

Elevated fire weather conditions will continue across Southwest
New Mexico through the early half of this week, with little to no
rain chances. Winds decrease slightly Monday/Tuesday (southwest
10 to 20 mph) below critical thresholds, but very dry air will
remain in place. Further drying this week will lead to single-
digit RH across Gila NF by midweek. More favorable moisture will
exist further east across West Texas and Eastern New Mexico, where
isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible for Lincoln
National Forest Thursday into next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  76  97  76  97 /  10   0  10  10
Sierra Blanca            67  90  66  91 /  30  20  20  20
Las Cruces               68  95  70  95 /   0   0   0  10
Alamogordo               70  96  70  95 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               54  73  53  73 /   0   0   0  10
Truth or Consequences    69  96  68  95 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              62  88  62  88 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   67  98  68  97 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                65  94  66  94 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       75  96  76  95 /   0   0   0  10
Dell City                70  95  69  96 /  20  10  10  20
Fort Hancock             73  96  73  97 /  30  10  20  20
Loma Linda               69  89  68  89 /  10  10  10  10
Fabens                   73  97  73  97 /  10  10  10  10
Santa Teresa             71  95  72  94 /   0   0   0  10
White Sands HQ           75  97  76  96 /   0   0   0  10
Jornada Range            68  96  70  95 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    69  99  71  98 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 73  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                69  94  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  59  85  57  84 /   0   0   0  20
Mescalero                57  84  56  84 /   0   0   0  10
Timberon                 55  81  53  81 /   0   0  10  10
Winston                  58  87  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                66  93  66  93 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                64  95  66  95 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             57  88  56  88 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   63  91  63  91 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    62  94  62  94 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               60  90  59  89 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  65  91  65  90 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   65  95  66  94 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  65  94  66  94 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           67  94  68  94 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               63  88  64  88 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...39-Aronson