Alamogordo, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

810
FXUS64 KEPZ 120431
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1031 PM MDT Mon Aug 11 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1030 PM MDT Mon Aug 11 2025

-  Daily thunderstorm chances expected with Tuesday and Friday the
   most active.

-  High temperatures in the lowlands stay in the mid to upper 90s
   through the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1030 PM MDT Mon Aug 11 2025

The UL pattern this evening, at least at H500, shows an area of
high pressure over the NV/CA border with another ridge covering
the SE US, extending into the Atlantic. A trough is cutting
through these two ridges extending from a low over Canada. The
CA/NV high`s trough axis extends into Southern NM, but a couple
vort maxes can be seen moving through the flow upstream from it on
WV. The one over UT is interestingly anticyclonic but there is a
cyclonic swirl over NM. The HRRR and RAP show convection ongoing
through the night and into the morning for Central and Eastern NM,
including eastern zones of the CWA, likely forced by this slowly
approaching vort max. A portion of the vort max will continue
eastward into the Plains while a portion of it will get left
behind over NW NM as an extension of the trough to our northeast.
This added UL support and cold pool aloft will foster at least
scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon, and
models are on board with this scenario. Main concerns will be
small hail, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall. Temperatures
will also be closer to normal thanks to cooler temperatures aloft
and increased cloud coverage.

UL high over CA/NV will begin shifting east Tuesday evening,
gradually reforming into the Plains by Friday morning. In spite of
the presence of the high, GFS indicates only modest warming at 500
mb while moisture continues to increase. Thunderstorm chances will
favor areas west of the Rio Grande where there will be better
instability. Highs will be near or just above normal. We do see
some warming aloft on Thursday evening, but continued moisture
transport and height falls ahead of an approaching trough appear
to offset any mid-level warming.

By Friday, lasting into the weekend, southerly flow will be fully
established across the CWA. Friday may be particularly active as a
s/w trough slowly swings through New Mexico though it will weaken
throughout the day. The ridge tries to rebuild some over the
weekend though the GFS hints at an easterly wave for Saturday.
Either way, by next week, the UL high is expected to be centered
across the Four Corners. Not the most favorable pattern in terms
of thermodynamics, but moisture will remain above average, keeping
thunderstorm chances in place though less so than this weekend,
especially the early half.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1030 PM MDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Primarily VFR conditions will continue with variable skies with
bases as low as 100, lower in TSRA. ISO to SCT TSRA/SHRA is
ongoing as of 4z, affecting primarily DMN, LRU, and ELP.
Expectation is for this activity to diminish/shift south and east
over the next few hours. Confidence on impacts, if any, remains
low through first few hours of the forecast period.

At least SCT TSRA/SHRA is expected to redevelop tomorrow afternoon
with highest chance for impacting TAF sites to be after 0z.
Confidence on timing precludes mention for this cycle. +TSRA and
gusty winds will be the main impacts.

Otherwise, expect light and variable winds with direction
favoring the south.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1037 AM MDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Fire weather concerns will be low through the period. Shower and
thunderstorm chances exist each day almost areawide. Greatest
chances will focus over the mountains. High temperatures will
decrease slightly from the previous day, returning back to around
the seasonal average. Min RH values will be at or above 15% each
afternoon through the middle of the week, increasing further by the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  75  97  72  97 /  40  30  30  10
Sierra Blanca            65  93  65  91 /  30  50  40  40
Las Cruces               68  93  67  94 /  40  20  40  10
Alamogordo               66  93  65  93 /  20  30  30  20
Cloudcroft               49  70  48  70 /  20  60  30  40
Truth or Consequences    67  93  67  93 /  10  30  30  20
Silver City              60  90  60  87 /  20  50  40  70
Deming                   67  97  67  96 /  40  30  50  20
Lordsburg                65  96  66  94 /  30  30  50  40
West El Paso Metro       73  95  71  94 /  40  20  40  10
Dell City                67  94  67  95 /  30  30  20  20
Fort Hancock             72  97  70  96 /  30  50  30  30
Loma Linda               66  88  64  89 /  20  30  30  20
Fabens                   71  95  69  95 /  40  30  30  10
Santa Teresa             70  94  69  94 /  50  20  40  10
White Sands HQ           70  95  69  94 /  30  30  40  20
Jornada Range            66  93  66  93 /  30  30  40  20
Hatch                    65  96  66  96 /  20  30  40  20
Columbus                 70  96  69  95 /  50  20  40  20
Orogrande                67  92  66  92 /  20  30  30  20
Mayhill                  52  78  53  81 /  30  60  30  40
Mescalero                52  80  52  81 /  30  60  30  40
Timberon                 52  78  52  78 /  30  50  30  30
Winston                  53  85  54  85 /  10  50  30  60
Hillsboro                60  92  60  92 /  30  40  40  40
Spaceport                63  93  64  92 /  20  30  30  20
Lake Roberts             55  90  55  88 /  20  60  40  80
Hurley                   61  91  61  89 /  30  40  40  50
Cliff                    63  97  62  94 /  10  40  30  70
Mule Creek               60  93  60  91 /  20  30  30  60
Faywood                  62  90  62  89 /  40  40  40  50
Animas                   66  97  65  95 /  40  40  50  50
Hachita                  65  95  64  94 /  50  30  50  30
Antelope Wells           65  94  63  92 /  50  40  60  40
Cloverdale               63  90  62  88 /  50  50  60  50

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...34-Brown