Wayne, New Jersey 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

419
FXUS61 KOKX 230713
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
213 AM EST Tue Dec 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system impacts the area today and moves offshore
tonight as low pressure develops. The low will move farther out
into the Atlantic on Wednesday, then high pressure builds from
the west Wednesday night. Weak low pressure will pass to the
southwest on Christmas Day, with high pressure briefly returning
at night. Another low will pass nearby from Friday into
Saturday, followed by another frontal system Sunday into Sunday
night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Key Messages:

* Winter weather advisories remain in effect for most areas well
  NW of NYC. The advisory is partly impact-based due to possible
  morning commute impacts, with slick conditions expected on
  colder, untreated surfaces.

* Light to occasionally moderate snow this morning as the warm
  front lifts into the area. Snow will mix with and change to
  rain for the coast this morning with inland areas potentially
  mixing with rain by afternoon.

* Total accumulations: 2-4 inches well inland/higher elevations,
  1-2 inches for most of the rest of the interior, and an inch
  or less for NYC and the coast.

Widespread light snow is expected to begin early this morning,
though a dry BL will delay the onset a bit. Marginal surface
temperatures along the coast should drop a bit as the lower
atmosphere saturates to the wetbulb temperature. This should
allow for a light snow before sunrise. An increasing SW flow
will slowly warm surface temperatures and the BL through the
day, allowing for snow to mix with and change over to rain along
the coast this morning. Warm air should continue to make its way
north through the afternoon, pushing this transition line
northward as well. Inland areas may remain mostly snow, but mix
with rain as precip ends this afternoon.

Overall, QPF is around a quarter of an inch with snowfall
amounts being generally 1-3 for inland areas. Elevated locations
to the NW may approach 4 inches of snow before precip ends this
afternoon. The coast and the NYC metro will see less than an
inch.

Temperatures climb above freezing by afternoon as precip begins
to taper off, even inland, with highs from the mid/upper 30s
inland to the lower 40s in the NYC metro area and along the
coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

The cold front moves through the area tonight with an tightening
pressure gradient building over the area as the surface low
intensifies to the east and strong high pressure moves in from
the west. This will promote an increasing NW flow, especially
late tonight. Lows will be in the low to middle 30s.

Gusty flow continues Wednesday with generally dry conditions and
mostly clear skies, especially into the afternoon. NW winds of
15-20mph with gusts up to 35 mph are possible and will be
strongest in the morning. By afternoon, high pressure moves
closer and weakens the pressure gradient, allowing winds to
weaken. Highs will be in the low 40s.

Weaker winds Wednesday night will allow for a cooler night as
high pressure overhead will provide a better chance for
radiational cooling. Lows will be in the 20s areawide.

A weak frontal system moves through Christmas Day, but other
than a wind shift from the SW to the NW, the day should be
mostly dry and seasonable with highs in the low 40s. High
pressure builds into the area from the north allowing for cold
air to infiltrate once again. Lows Christmas night will be in
the teens inland to 20s along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages:

* Accumulating snow possible Friday into Saturday.

* Chances for light rain and snow late Saturday night into
  Sunday night.

The long term period remains active as a series of northern
stream frontal systems impacts the region. There is a lot of
uncertainty with the timing and track of these lows, and
therefore the potential impacts the systems will have across the
region.

With the high to the north, and potentially colder air in
place, another northern stream frontal system is likely to
impact the region Friday into Saturday. A lot of uncertainty
remains with the track and timing of the low, with some global
guidance keeping the low farther to the south and west, and
slower, with far less impacts, while other global guidance
tracks the low closer, and quicker, to the region, with the
potential for more significant precipitation, snow accumulation,
and impacts. With the uncertainty have followed the NBM
deterministic guidance. As a result, with colder air now
expected to be in place, the precipitation is expected to be
snow across the region, potentially beginning as a rain/snow mix
along the coast, Friday morning, and continuing through
Saturday. Currently the best timing for accumulating snow will
be Friday afternoon into late Friday night. And depending is
warmer air can move in aloft late Friday into Friday night,
there is a low chance of light freezing rain across portions of
northeastern New Jersey into the Lower Hudson Valley, and
possible into southwestern Connecticut.

The cold air potentially retreats Saturday night into Sunday as
yet another frontal system impacts the area late Saturday night
into Sunday. This system is currently forecast to track west,
well inland, of the region, with the precipitation being mainly
a snow/rain mix, going over to all rain for a time Sunday.

Dry weather looks to returns Monday.

Once again there is a lot of uncertainty with the timing and
tracks of the lows during the extended period, so remain up to
date with the forecasts and potential impacts.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A warm front approaches overnight and lifts through the region
Tuesday. A cold front then moves through later in the evening.

VFR through most of the overnight. Conditions decline to MVFR/IFR
during the morning push as light snow develops toward and after 10Z.
The snow changes to rain or rain/snow mix late morning into early
afternoon at most terminals, with the exception of KSWF and KHPN.
Precipitation ends by late afternoon, likely as drizzle, especially
across coastal terminals. Improvement to VFR likely does not occur
until after 00Z Wed.

Winds become SW overnight at 5 to 10 kt, with outlying terminals
under 5 kt. A general S or SW flow continues through the day, before
veering W, then NW, tonight behind a cold frontal passage.

Expected total snow accumulations:

KSWF: 2-3 inches
KHPN: 1-2 inches
KTEB/KBDR: 1 inch
KEWR/KLGA/KJFK: Up to an inch
KISP/KGON: Up to a half inch

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments likely later this morning and much of the day for
changing flight categories with the snow and rain.

Timing of precip and changeover may be off by an hour or two.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Late tonight: VFR conditions return with W winds developing.

Wednesday: VFR. W winds 12-15g25-30kt.

Thursday: Mainly VFR. Chance of MVFR with rain/snow mix.

Friday Morning: VFR.

Friday Afternoon - Saturday: MVFR/IFR with snow or mixed
precipitation. E-NE gusts 20-25kt possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Increasing SW flow today could gust up to 25 kt at times on the
ocean in the afternoon as seas build to 4 ft. Expecting the
gusts to remain occasional enough to forgo issuing a SCA during
this timeframe.

SCA now in effect tonight for the ocean waters as NW gusts
behind a cold frontal passage increasing to above 25kt. These
gusts will increase across all the waters late tonight allowing
for widespread SCA conditions across all waters. These
conditions persist through much of the day on Wednesday. Gale
Watches are also in effect for the ocean zones on Wednesday as
there may be a period of gusts in excess of 35kt Wednesday
morning into the early afternoon.

SCA conditions subside Wednesday night as high pressure builds
into the area.

With low pressure tracking near the forecast waters on Christmas
Day winds and seas on the ocean waters will be at SCA levels
and subside Thursday night as high pressure briefly builds into
the area. Another low passes near the waters Friday into
Saturday with SCA conditions developing on the ocean waters
Friday night and continuing into Saturday. Wind gusts and seas
fall below advisory levels Saturday evening as high pressure
briefly builds in. Yet another low affects the waters Sunday
with the return of SCA conditions on the ocean waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected into early next week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     CTZ005.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ067>070.
NJ...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     NJZ002-004-103.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM EST Wednesday for
     ANZ331-332-335-338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 6 AM EST
     Wednesday for ANZ350-353-355.
     Gale Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon
     for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET/MW
NEAR TERM...MW
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MET
AVIATION...JE/DR
MARINE...MET/MW
HYDROLOGY...MET/MW