Lakewood, New Jersey 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

311
FXUS61 KPHI 130759
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
359 AM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will stall out across the Mid Atlantic
today, where it will remain through the weekend. Several waves
of low pressure with showers and storms will impact the region
along with below normal temperatures through early next week.
Bermuda high pressure will then begin to take hold toward the
middle of next week with increasing temperatures and daily
chances of showers and storms remaining. A cold front may impact
the region later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The weak front continues to creep slowly south across the
forecast area early this morning. A wind shift and slightly
cooler air arrive behind it. The winds turn East/Northeast
behind the front so the flow off the ocean will keep temps in
check today. Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s will be common
today with perhaps some mid 80s for metro Philadelphia and
inland Delmarva. Little in the way of precip much of the day,
but a couple scattered showers/tstms possible later this
afternoon for the western areas (Berks County, PA) and Delmarva.
We`ll continue with the chance pops for these areas. Skies will
be mostly sunny this morning then increasing clouds for the
afternoon.

Tonight, moisture continues to increase over the area as
onshore flow continues and improved dynamics aloft arrive on
scene. Weak low pressure moves along the previously mentioned
front and works its way across the PA/MD areas overnight. We
will continue with high likely/low categorical POPs for the
entire area. Total rainfall will not be that much, mostly a
tenth or two, with greater totals for southern Delaware where a
few tstms may develop. Lows will be in the 50s across the north
and 60s elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The short term period through the weekend will be characterized
by cloudy, showery, drizzly, and humid conditions with below
normal temperatures. Overall, nothing of particular interest to
note as far as impacts go with the convective activity in our
region, however the showery conditions won`t be good news for
any outdoor activities.

Quasi zonal and relatively weak flow will prevail aloft through
the weekend, though will will remain in the vicinity of the
right entrance region of a zonal jet toward our northeast. A
more pronounced shortwave trough looks to approach the area by
Sunday night. At the surface, a stalled to slowly moving frontal
boundary will remain in place across Delmarva into Virginia.
Weak low pressure will slide offshore on Saturday, then surface
ridging will strengthen some into Sunday, which should push the
frontal boundary a little farther south.

As far as precipitation chances go, fairly low predictability
in this period regarding any details of timing and coverage.
Showers and any storms will be directly influenced by the
remnants of whatever happens upstream to our west and southwest.
With that said, the daytime Saturday looks to have the highest
probability of measurable rain for the entire weekend, though
there will be chances of showers through the period. PWats will
be high (1.5-2.0"), so any robust and persistent convection that
can develop will be capable of locally heavy rainfall. Our
southern and western most area are highlighted in a Marginal
Risk for excessive rainfall by WPC for at least a 5% risk of
heavy rainfall leading to flooding. The severe risk is low
overall, and we are not currently outlooked by SPC. Lightning is
certainly possible with any stronger cells though.

For temperatures, highs will be mainly in the mid 60s to low
70s Saturday and Sunday. Depending on exactly where the front
stalls on Saturday, portions of Delmarva could reach near 80
degrees. Sunday will likely be the cooler of the two days given
the stronger surface ridging in place. The current forecast for
high temperatures could be a little optimistic, but there`s
still time for some change. SOme record coolest high
temperatures could be in jeopardy. Lows in the mid 50s to low
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Unsettled conditions persisting into the middle of next week
with rebounding temperatures. A shortwave trough will pass
offshore early Monday with quasi zonal flow remaining early in
the week. By midweek, broad upper ridging should begin to take
shape. At the surface, the weekend frontal boundary will begin
to washout by Tuesday as another weak surface low passes
offshore. Bermuda high pressure offshore will then take hold of
the local conditions as low pressure develops across the
Midwest, leading to persistent southwest flow and warm advection
locally.

The unsettled and lousy weekend conditions will persist through
Monday as another weak low moves offshore. Greatest chances of
rain will be Monday, then lower chances of showers and storms
will remain each day as the weak progresses. As the
southwesterly flow ramps up Tuesday through Wednesday,
temperatures will rebound quickly. Highs will be back into the
80s Wednesday, and some low 90s possible again by Thursday. By
the middle to end of the week, showers and storms will be more
diurnally driven in nature.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

.Today...VFR expected with high clouds much of the day and
perhaps some lower clouds towards dusk. A couple scattered
showers later this afternoon especially across Delmarva and
western counties. These could affect KRDG/KILG. Not enough
confid to include in the 06Z TAFS however. Winds will be East to
Northeast increasing to around 10 knots after dawn. Medium/high
confid.

.Tonight...Deteriorating conditions after 02Z/03Z with rains
arriving and MVFR conditions probable. IFR or lower possible
after 06Z, but not included in the 06Z TAFS with confid of them
developing not the greatest, East winds 5 to 10 knots. Medium
confid.

Outlook...

Saturday through Monday...MVFR and IFR conditions prevailing.
Periods of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Easterly winds.
Visibility restrictions likely at times.

Tuesday...Restrictions probable initially, though some
improvement anticipated. Chances of showers/storms remaining.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak front is crossing the waters early this morning. Few
clouds and no precip is associated with the front. A wind shift
to East/Northeast is behind the front however. Later tonight a
weak low will move along the front and move across the waters
later Sat. Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels. Fair
weather is expected today and rains and fog will be over the
water tonight.

Outlook...

Saturday through Monday...Overall, sub-SCA conditions expected,
though there is the potential for SCA conditions Sunday night
through Monday. VSBY restrictions in showers, drizzle, and
isolated to scattered thunderstorms throughout this period.
Areas of fog also possible.

Tuesday...Improving conditions expected. Chances of
showers/storms remain.

Rip Currents...

For today, east- northeast winds around 5-10 mph turn more
easterly in the afternoon. Breaking wave heights remain around
1-3 feet with a weak southeasterly swell of 1 foot around 9
seconds. There will be a LOW risk for dangerous rip currents at
all beaches.

For Saturday, weak southerly winds in the morning will
transition to northeasterly in the afternoon and increase to
around 10 mph. Breaking wave heights remain around 1-3 feet with
a continued weak southeasterly swell around 1 foot at 9-10
seconds in length. Will maintain a LOW risk for dangerous rip
currents at all beaches.

For specific beach forecasts, visit weather.gov/beach/phi

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Staarmann
NEAR TERM...OHara
SHORT TERM...Staarmann
LONG TERM...Staarmann
AVIATION...OHara/Staarmann
MARINE...OHara/Staarmann