Elizabeth, New Jersey 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

908
FXUS61 KOKX 230942
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
442 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure east of New England will undergo rapid intensification
today while tracking to Nova Scotia by this afternoon. The low will
then slowly weaken and track northeast across the Canadian Maritimes
tonight through Monday. At the same time, high pressure over the mid
section of the country builds slowly east. An area of low pressure
will then pass to the northwest Monday night into Tuesday, sending
a frontal system through the area. Another area of low pressure
may pass just south of the area late Thursday into Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
An upper low passing to the south of the area this morning will
keep a few showers in the forecast, but mainly across eastern LI
and SE CT this morning. There is band of steadier rain across
eastern New England that will drop southward this morning, but
should dissipate in a drying NW flow. More importantly though,
this feature will result in rapid intensification of low pressure
east of New England this morning. The low will reach Nova Scotia
by this afternoon. At the same time, high pressure builds east
from the mid section of the country. The pressure gradient
between the two will result in a prolonged period of strong NW
flow through the weekend. Winds will increase to 20 to 30 mph
with gusts 35 to 45 mph, strongest this afternoon. The depth of
the mixed layer is on average about 900 mb, with winds at the
top of the layer 40kt, but averaging 30 to 35 kt throughout the
mixed layer. Skies will also gradually clear from west to east
through the day.

Highs today will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s. This is close
to normal but will feel considerably cooler with the winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Gusty NW winds will continue into Sunday due to the strong
pressure gradient across the region between low pressure over
the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure building in from the
west. Gusts will diminish this evening, but still 20 to 30 mph,
strongest near the coast. There is some uncertainty whether or
not inland areas decouple with gusts becoming more occasional or
stopping all together. Lows tonight will be in the upper 30s to
lower 40s, a bit above normal, mainly due to winds expected to
stay up.

For Sunday, NW gusts are expected to be a bit weaker, more in
the 30 to 35 mph range. Highs will also top off near normal in
the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Approaching high pressure will allow winds to fall off Sunday
night, allowing for lows closer to normal. A milder W/SW flow on
Monday will send temperatures up a few degrees, generally in the
lower and mid 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An active pattern is suggested by the modeling thru next week.

Increasing clouds ahead of a warm front on Mon. No rain however
per the model consensus until Mon ngt when chances increase,
then continued chances on Tue ahead of the trailing cold front.
The best dynamics currently progged N of the cwa, so significant
rainfall is not fcst attm.

Fair and cooler on Wed behind the front. Dry wx is progged with
some wly wind gusts around 25 mph at times.

Temps in the 20s and 30s Thanksgiving mrng per the NBM which seemed
reasonable based on some increasing clouds ahead of another
potential sys.

The models keep the storm track S of the cwa Thanksgiving and
Fri, with chances of low pres development thru the period. This
would bring chances for rain at the coasts and rain or snow
interior. With a cold airmass to tap into, any low deep enough
to bring winds to the N could allow for some snow to reach the
coasts Otherwise, progressive lows will keep the ely component
in place likely resulting in a boundary layer too warm for snow
there. There is a high amount of uncertainty with this portion
of the fcst 7 days out, but did go a little blw the NBM for high
temps based on the fairly high model consensus pops.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low pressure exits northeast through the period with high pressure
to the west.

An MVFR start this morning, quickly becomes VFR by 12Z. VFR remains
for the day today. Tonight, VFR is expected, but occasional MVFR is
a small possibility.

A few showers remain in the area, clearing by 12Z, except for KGON
which may see a few showers through 15Z.

North winds increase this morning becoming NNW/NW sustained 10-15
kts, gusts 20-25 kts. By the afternoon NW winds continue to
increase, sustained 15-25 kts, gusts 25-35 kts. Winds weaken
slightly, but remain strong turning WNW in the evening and
overnight, sustained 15-20 kts, gusts 22-28 kts.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB)TAF Uncertainty...

Amendments are possible for timing of MVFR to VFR improvement this
morning, may be off by a few hours.

Amendments are possible for onset timing of stronger wind gusts
later this morning into the afternoon.

OUTLOOK FOR 09Z SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Sunday: VFR. WNW winds 15-20 kt with G25-30kt, diminishing at night.

Monday: Mainly VFR. Increasing chances of rain Monday night,
eventually becoming likely for most terminals. MVFR or lower
possible Monday night.

Tuesday: Showers/MVFR likely in the day especially east of the NYC
metros, otherwise VFR. SW-W winds G20kt.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR. W winds G20kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A NW gale is forecast across the ocean waters into Sunday
afternoon and into early this evening for the non-ocean waters.
This is due to a rapidly intensifying low moving into the
Canadian Maritimes by this afternoon. The low will then slowly
weaken and lift NE into early next week, while high pressure
builds in from the west. Seas build to 6 to 9 ft on the ocean
by this evening, and 3 to 6 ft across eastern LI Sound. Winds
and seas will gradually diminish Sunday afternoon and night
with sub-SCA conditions expected by Monday morning.

A frontal sys could bring sca cond to the waters Tue and Wed,
especially the ocean. Low chc of sca cond on Thu, with the probs
highest on the ocean.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic impacts are expected through the end of next
week.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ331-332-335-
     338-340-345.
     Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Sunday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...DW
HYDROLOGY...DW