Keene, New Hampshire 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

821
FXUS61 KGYX 130337
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1037 PM EST Tue Nov 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Winds gradually diminish through this evening. High pressure
builds into New England Wednesday and Thursday. The next chance
for meaningful precipitation looks to come towards the end of
the work week as an unsettled pattern develops.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
1036 PM Update...
Clouds continue to slowly dissipate and retreat towards the
northern mountains per latest satellite imagery and surface
observations. Area webcams are showing improvement as well, even
in the Mount Washington area.

Windy conditions persist across the region. This has acted to
allow for a well mixed layer and temperatures in the lower to
mid 30s as of 03Z. In any case, temperatures will fall through
the lower to mid 20s by morning.

Update...
Plenty of low level clouds continue across the mountains and
occasionally downstream of the region this evening. Have
increased the cloud cover for the near term and blended into the
latest HREF solution which allows this moisture to gradually
dissipate overnight. Otherwise, mainly just changes to lowering
the marine flags for Casco Bay in the marine section.

Prev Disc...
Decent pressure gradient remains in place overnight
but does slowly weaken as sfc low to our E starts to weak and
sfc high build in from the W. Strongest winds should be
diminishing after sunset, but still gusty through the evening,
before we see just sustained winds around 10 mph. Otherwise,
everywhere should go clear later this evening, with lows ranging
from around 20 in the mtns to the mid to upper 20s in the S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The center of the sfc high tracks down the St. Lawrence Valley,
on Wed, so we maintain a little pressure gradient, but no where
near as breezy as Tuesday. Actually, in NH will likely see
winds generally stay around 10 mph, while we can expect some
some gusts to 20-25 mph in ME. Should be sunny all around, with
highs only in the upper 30s in the mtns to the mid to upper 40s
in the S. The ridge axis just move into the CWA on Tuesday
night, although in some spots, especially in the S, may see
enough flow to prevent full decoupling, but certainly mtns
valley should decouple for most of the night where lows will be
close to 10 above, while the S zone will generally fall in the
20-25 range, but the colder sheltered areas could see some mins
in the teens.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Some changes will be afoot within the upper level flow pattern
the second half of this week through the weekend as blocking starts
to develop in the North Atlantic. This blocking will result in an
upper low forming near the Canadian Maritimes Thursday. Global
models generally agree this upper low will gyrate over the western
Atlantic through the weekend, and possibly through early next week.
Embedded waves within the upper low may rotate through the area
Friday through the weekend, bringing chances for precipitation while
confidence in the location and timing of these waves is low due to
the wobbling nature of the system. A seasonably cold airmass will be
in place Thursday and temperatures will struggle to moderate through
the weekend with persistent NE to NW surface winds.

A narrow ridge of high pressure will be over the northeast Thursday.
After a cold start Thursday, temperatures will climb into the upper
30s across the north and the mid 40s across the south for highs.
High pressure will retreat northward Friday as a splitting trough
slides south of New England. All the while, the upper low will
retrograde westward and will spread chances for precipitation into
the area. Confidence in the timing and placement of this
precipitation is low, while thermal profiles may support frozen
precipitation early Friday morning and again Friday night, mainly in
the north.

The splitting trough sliding south of New England Friday will start
to interact with the upper low Saturday. Global models suggest this
interaction will cause the upper low to retrograde farther west
bringing continued chances of precipitation on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term...Gusty winds will diminish somewhat after sunset,
but still some gusts of 20-25 kts through the evening before we
see the gust drop off everywhere, except maybe KAUG. Otherwise
expect clear skies and VFR through Wed night.

Long Term...Winds will be primarily out of the north-northwest
through the period with gusts approaching 25 kts at times. VFR
conditions will prevail Thursday through Thursday night before
some lowering ceilings and spotty precipitation arrive on Friday
through the upcoming weekend. The greatest potential for
restrictions look to be across eastern terminals of ME.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...The strongest winds should start to diminish after
sunset, with winds gradually winding down from W to E overnight.
Still will need a period of SCAs once the winds subside and will
likely see SCA conditions into Wed evening at least in the open
waters.

Long Term...North-northwesterly winds of 25-30 kts are likely
Thursday through the upcoming weekend as low pressure develops
near the Canadian Maritimes. Seas will be at 4-6 ft outside of
the bays with 1-3 ft in the bays themselves. SCAs will likely be
needed.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ150.
     Gale Warning until 5 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ151-152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Wednesday for ANZ153.

&&

$$

NEAR/SHORT TERM...Cannon
LONG TERM...Schroeter