Keene, New Hampshire 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

889
FXUS61 KGYX 230543
AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
1243 AM EST Tue Dec 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure tracks SE across northern New England this evening
into Wednesday morning. This system will bring several inches
of snow across much of the area with significant snowfall along
the coastal plain of Maine. High pressure builds in Wednesday
afternoon into Thursday morning. A cold front crosses Thursday
evening with sub-zero wind chills likely Thursday night. A warm
front approaches late Friday that will bring chances for light
snow into Saturday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY...

Key Messages:

-Snow moves in from southwest to northeast today with
 deteriorating travel conditions by this evening.

Discussion:

Surface low pressure will exit Quebec today before moving over the
Gulf of ME tonight within the left exit region of a LLJ. This area
of low pressure will bring widespread snowfall to the region, which
will advance from southwest to northeast through the day before
arriving towards the Mid-Coast of ME by early this evening. Forcing
for ascent during the day will be fairly weak with limited QPF, and
therefore through sunset only 1-2" on average of snowfall is likely.
High temperatures will range from the upper 20s to middle 30s from
north to south, and this could allow for a little rain to mix in at
times, mainly along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Key Messages:

-Periods of moderate to heavy snowfall is expected tonight for
 portions of the western ME coast. Snow ends Wednesday morning
 into the early afternoon.

-Gusty northwesterly winds on Wednesday are expected, with some
blowing and drifting snow possible.

Discussion:

Snowfall rates are expected to increase later this evening through
the overnight hours along the ME coast as an inverted trof/Norlun
Trof develops with light to at times moderate snow elsewhere. Latest
forecast soundings show strong omega/lift within a saturated DGZ
with some increasing LL instability developing and strong LL
convergence. There is the potential for snowfall rates between
1- 2"/hr across portions western ME tonight, which will result
in very hazardous travel conditions. Latest hi-res guidance
shows between 0.50-1.00" of QPF, mainly from Portland, ME and
points east towards the Mid-Coast of ME. This QPF combined with
snow-liquid ratios of between 12-15:1 yields a wide swath of
6-8" of snow from Cumberland county to Kennebec county with
pockets of 8-12" just inland from the coastline. Based on this
latest guidance and the overall run-run consistency, went ahead
and upgraded the existing winter storm watch to a winter storm
warning. Elsewhere, generally between 3-6" of snow can be
expected with lesser amounts towards southern NH of 1-3" due to
less in the way of forcing and lower QPF. The winter weather
advisory remains largely unchanged but did add Grafton County in
NH based on the latest forecast.

Snow will gradually end from west to east on Wednesday morning but
it may linger through at least part of the afternoon across western
ME. Northwesterly winds will increase in its wake with gusts up to
25-30 mph possible. This could result in some blowing and drifting
snow since snow character is expected to be fairly dry, especially
away from the immediate coastline. High temperatures on Wednesday
will primarily be into the 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Overview: The mid tropospheric flow pattern across the CONUS will
continue to feature a persistent ridge centered over the Great
Plains through the end of the week. Disturbances riding the
northeast flank of the ridge will bring a couple of chances for
light precipitation Thursday into Saturday. The central US ridge
temporarily breaks down late week as Pacific energy pushes
inland across western North America. This will lead to a more
robust trough swinging across the Great Lakes late in the
weekend which will coincide with a growing upstream block near
Greenland associated with a -NAO.

Key Messages:

*Light snow Friday afternoon into Saturday morning could bring
 slick travel. Particularly across southern NH where ensemble
 probabilities of greater than 1 inch of snow are around 60
 percent.

*There is a growing signal for a widespread wintry precipitation
 event Sunday that will bring potential for travel impacts.

Forecast Details:

A cold front will cross the area Thursday bringing chances for snow
showers, mainly in the mountains. Before the front crosses
temperatures will rise into the mid 20s north to mid 30s across the
south with a mix of sun and clouds. NW winds ramp up Thursday
evening in the wake of the cold front. The combination of gusty NW
winds and colder air moving into the area will bring wind chills
below zero across the entire area by Friday morning.

High pressure building in from the north will allow for mostly sunny
skies Friday morning with clouds increasing late in the day as the
next upper level disturbance approaches. This feature will produce
an area of low pressure over the Ohio Valley that tracks ESE to a
position south of Long Island, NY Saturday. There is a large spread
in the track of this feature amongst ensembles with several members
keeping measurable precipitation south of the region. There are also
several members that bring accumulating snow to much of the area
with amounts approaching Advisory criteria across southern NH. The
latest NBM brings chance PoPs (30-50%) across western Maine and
northern NH and likely PoPs (60%) across southern NH, which seems to
be a good compromise given the spread in ensembles.

There will likely be a break in precipitation Saturday afternoon
through Saturday night before a more robust trough approaches from
the Great Lakes. The current model consensus with this feature is
for one area of low pressure to track into SE Canada with second low
forming near coastal New England. This set up would likely yield
snow with potential for a wintry mix while these finer details will
take several days to iron out at this time range.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term...SN will overspread the region today into this
evening with deteriorating flight restrictions to IFR/LIFR.
Periods of +SN and 1/4SM viz is possible overnight, mainly at
KPWM, KAUG, and KRKD. Winds will generally be out of the E-NE at
10-15 kts. Conditions will gradually improve on Wed but
restrictions may persist with SN at KPWM, KRKD, and KAUG through
part of the afternoon. Gusty NW winds will develop with gusts up
to 25 kts possible. No LLWS is anticipated.

Long Term...VFR likely prevails for most Wednesday night into
Saturday. Some -SHSN will bring potential for restrictions at
KHIE Thursday. There is potential a system will bring lowering
cigs and light snow late Friday into Saturday morning with the
highest confidence for restrictions at KLEB, KMHT, KCON, and
KPSM.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels today
into tonight. Gusty NW winds are expected on Wednesday with
gusts up to 30 kts and seas building to 6-8 ft outside of the
bays with 1-4 ft in the bays.

Long Term...Winds will be below 25 kts from 00Z to 18Z Thursday
while seas will run greater than 5 feet. A cold front crosses
late Thursday with NW winds gusting 30-35 kts into Friday
morning. Winds and seas drop below SCA thresholds Friday
afternoon into Saturday.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Tuesday to 1 PM EST
     Wednesday for MEZ007>009-012>014-018-023-033.
     Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM Tuesday to 1 PM EST Wednesday
     for MEZ019>022-024>028.
NH...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Tuesday to 1 PM EST
     Wednesday for NHZ001>006-009-010.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


NEAR TERM...Tubbs
SHORT TERM...Tubbs
LONG TERM...Schroeter