Winchester, Nevada 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

586
FXUS65 KVEF 021944 RRA
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1245 PM PDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
remain in the forecast through Thursday as an upper level system
shifts through the region. Impacts will be limited with small hail
and sudden gusty winds possible, as well as light to briefly
moderate snow above 5000ft. Temperatures will begin to recover on
Thursday, and return to near normal over the weekend with well above
normal readings expected by the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday.

Potent shortwave passing through the region has brought scattered
showers along with low snow levels to the region today. A nice
little convergence band was set up from eastern San Bernardino into
southern Lincoln County, which included the western portions of the
Las Vegas Valley. A few locations over the far western valley did
receive anywhere from a tenth to a quarter inch of rain this
morning. Snow levels were generally around 5000 feet, but with the
convective nature of some of these showers, we did have a few
reports of rain/snow mix down to around 3000 feet. A few areas in
Lee Canyon did report some light accumulations with the ski resort
seeing around 2-4 inches and the Bristlecone Trail snotel site at
8900 feet receiving 5 inches. For the remainder of the afternoon, we
will continue to see showers develop as we start to get more heating
and the instability increases with the main focus areas being across
far eastern San Bernardino, southern Clark, Mohave, and eastern
Lincoln counties. Some brief heavy rain and small hail will be
possible with any of these showers. Another area to watch would be I-
40 east of Kingman near Fort Rock where the elevation rises to
around 5000 feet. It is not out of the question to see some brief
heavy snow at times this afternoon. It is also possible that we
could see an isolated lightning strike along with some small hail
from any of this convection. For areas over western San Bernardino,
southern Nye, and Lincoln counties, showers will be a bit more
isolated through this afternoon.

Still seeing some gusty northwest across the region behind the
front, but winds have slowly been diminishing early this afternoon.
This trend will continue into this evening as gradients continue to
weaken. A secondary cold front is expected to push into central
Nevada this evening which will bring a return to some gusty
northwest winds across Esmeralda, central Nye, and northern Inyo
counties; however, wind speeds will remain below advisory levels.
Winds will be much lighter Thursday.

On Thursday, the upper level system will remain entrenched over the
region and wont move significantly from where it sets up tonight.
Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected in
southern Nevada and western Arizona Thursday, with the best chance
for dry conditions being in California where dry anticyclonic flow
should be set up and will prohibit precipitation development.
Moisture will be decreasing and the mid levels should warm up
slightly compared to this afternoon, so precipitation activity and
impacts should be lower than what is able to develop today. Snow
levels on Thursday will also be higher, around 5000-6000ft, so the
potential for snow impacts will also be lower even though the chance
for precipitation may be better on Thursday in the Kingman and Fort
Rock, AZ area than today. Winds on Thursday will continue to be from
the northwest and remain lighter than what we have seen for winds
the past few days. Temperature today will be colder than yesterday,
remaining 15-20 degrees below normal. On Thursday, temperatures will
warm a few degrees compared to today but will still remain at least
10 degrees below normal for this time of the year.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Wednesday.

The broad area of upper-level troughing will finally close off over
southern Nevada on Thursday before it starts to push eastward on
Friday. Expect gusty north winds across the forecast area on Friday
and Saturday afternoons as a result of the trough shifting east and
a growing ridge of high pressure building over the southeastern
Pacific Ocean to our west. Chances of wind gusts over 40 mph remain
confined to the higher terrain as well as north-south oriented
valleys such as the Colorado River Valley. Expect impacts to east-
west thoroughfares as well as to area lakes, with wave heights at or
above 2 feet possible. Slight PoPs persist in our far northern and
eastern zones Friday afternoon, though accumulation is likely to be
little-to-none.

Through the weekend and start of next week, skies clear and
temperatures increase above seasonal normals as a ridge of high
pressure builds in the Pacific across the Desert Southwest. Monday
and Tuesday have a 60% and 90% chance, respectively, for reaching 80
degrees here in Las Vegas. HeatRisk increases back to "Low" (Level 1
on a scale of 0-4) for desert valleys over the weekend including Las
Vegas, Moapa Valley, Death Valley, Pahrump Valley, and the Colorado
River Valley.

[Note] "Low" HeatRisk does not mean that chances of heat-related
illness are low for any one individual - it means chances are low
for the general population. People who should take extra precautions
during "Low" HeatRisk days include those out of town from cooler
locations, those consuming alcohol, caffeine, or other drugs, and
those without adequate means of hydration or air conditioning.

Meanwhile, chances of 90 degrees return to Las Vegas and 100 degrees
return to Death Valley mid-to-late week as the southeastern Pacific
ridge continues to build into the extended forecast. HeatRisk climbs
to "Moderate" (Level 2 on a scale of 0-4) for our lowest valleys on
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Winds
and lower ceilings/showers will continue to be the primary concern
through the afternoon. Winds should generally remain out of the
northwest to west through sunset, although temporary changes in
directions could occur depending on shower activity in and near the
valley.  CIGs with bases of 6kft AGL to 8kft AGL will be common
through the afternoon and could possibly drop as low as 4kft AGL if
a shower moves over the field.  Showers are expected to end after
sunset, and sky conditions will gradually improve overnight.  Winds
on Thursday are expected to be light and, at times, favor a westerly
direction, but speeds should remain less than 10 knots.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Conditions at the Las
Vegas area terminals will be similar to what is described for Harry
Reid. Elsewhere, showers and a few isolated thunderstorms with
associated lower ceilings and terrain obscuration will continue
across southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and extreme southeast
California this afternoon. Shower coverage will begin to decrease
late this afternoon and evening, along with improving sky
conditions. The strongest winds this afternoon are forecast across
the western Mojave Desert, including KDAG, where a few gusts
approaching 30 knots can be expected, especially over and near
higher terrain. All areas will see winds decrease overnight, with
most sites dropping to 10 knots or less by sunrise.  All TAF sites
should see winds less than 10 knots on Thursday, with VFR conditions
prevailing.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gorelow/Nickerson
LONG TERM...Soulat
AVIATION...Planz

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