West Wendover, Nevada 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

971
FXUS65 KLKN 102150 CCA
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
209 PM PDT Tue Jun 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 136 PM PDT Tue Jun 10 2025

 * There is a 15%-40% chance of a mix of isolated dry to scattered
   wet thunderstorms and showers this afternoon and evening

 * Precipitation chances continue at 15% to 50% for a mix of isolated
   dry to scattered wet thunderstorms, across Northern Nevada for
   Wednesday as central NV stays dry.

 * Quiet pattern with warming temperatures will return Thursday
   through next weekend

&&


.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 1236 PM PDT Tue Jun 10 2025


WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Upper low located over the four corners and a shortwave trough
approaching from the Pacific will team up for another 15% to 40%
chances of a mix of isolated dry to scattered wet thunderstorms
and showers almost area wide this afternoon and evening. This is
thanks to a boundary located near the I-80 corridor which will
serve as a focus for storms, as of now storms have initiated
across Eureka and Lander counties, and as evening approaches
additional storms are expected across Humboldt, Nye, Elko and
White Pine. Good news is dynamics will only support general
thunderstorms with erratic outflow winds up to 40 MPH, brief heavy
rain and a few lightning strikes. For Wednesday the shortwave
trough will be a solo player for northern Nevada, as it makes its
way onshore then across the Snake river plain to our north. Models
have trended a bit more north, but most concerning is the timing
has been faster in recent runs, with the best energy moving
through during the morning hours, leading to diminished potential
for rain with this wave. Models have also trended a more stronger
and dynamic trough as well which may lead to the possibility of a
few storms reaching severe levels. Current thinking based on the
ensembles is that the timing and track trends will be short lived.
Either way there is another 15% to 50% chance for scattered
thunderstorms across and north of the I-80 corridor for Wednesday
afternoon. There may be a small area of concern across far NE Elko
County including the Jackpot area for a 20% chance for storms that
form in this area to become severe, even with the best lift and
dynamics farther north, the Storm Prediction Center does have the
Jackpot area under a Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms, with
strong winds being the main threat. By Wednesday night a cool
front will enter Nevada and push south to near Tonopah, this front
will bring an end to storm chances and for northern NV some
slightly cooler temperatures. Temperatures will peak Tuesday
afternoon, as highs will reach the mid 80s to mid 90s, while night
time lows only drop into the mid 50s to mid 60s. Wednesday will
depend on clouds for northern NV, as highs could be cooler in the
low 80s to low 90s, however central NV will continue to see mid
80s to mid 90s. Winds will be based by the location of the
boundary, to its north, winds will be W to WNW at 5 to 15 MPH,
while south of the boundary winds will be SW at 10 to 20 MPH with
a few gusts up to 25 MPH possible. Wednesday SW winds will be area
wide as the approaching shortwave lifts the boundary into Idaho,
before returning it south as a cool front late in the evening.

Days 3-7 6/12 to 6/17 The primary changes that will occur between
Thursday of this week and next Tuesday will be incursions of weak
low pressure troughs moving across northern and central Nevada.
The main impact will be breezy conditions Friday afternoon and
evening and then again on Saturday as that particular low pressure
trough moves across the region. These troughs currently by the
weather prediction models and ensembles are being forecasted as
dry system. Then by Sunday the 5OO MB high pressure ridge
temporarily builds over the rockies, just to our east as depicted
by the ensembles and WPC Day 3-9 cluster analysis. Next low
pressure trough is schedule to push through the area on next
Monday and Tuesday. Looking at the cluster analysis by WPC 34 % of
the clusters show a deeper and much cooler/windier system coming
through northern and central Nevada, where as the other 2 clusters
at 66% indicate a much weak trough with nearly zonal flow
slightly cooler condtions around 5-10 degrees above normal with
less wind. Depending upon how the system unfolds in the extended
will definitely have a contrastive affect on the sensible weather
that will occur at that time


FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

There is a high confidence of the chances of thunderstorms and
showers for Tuesday afternoon and evening, and for northern Nevada
on Wednesday afternoon and evening. There is moderate confidence
on the ratio of dry vs wet storms for Tuesday and Wednesday,
current forecast call for wet storms to out number dry by 3 to 1.
There is a moderate confidence for a 5% chance for severe
thunderstorms for far NE Nevada Wednesday afternoon, with strong
outflow winds the main hazard should storms form. During the
Thursday 6/12 to Tuesday 6/17 time period , there is moderate to
high confidence that the area will see these incursion of low
pressure troughs moving across the area on nearly zonal flow. The
high pressure will will remain much weaker under this pattern.
High temperatures remaining 4-8 degrees above normal with nearly
dry conditions. Minor deviations were made to the wind/& gust
grids from 21utc to 03 utc Friday and again on Saturday where the
grids for that time period were modified using the NBM blend tool
where we mixed 2 parts forecast and 1 part 90th percentile winds
and gusts. The reasoning behind the increase of winds over the
regular NBM winds was for the gradient plus the deeper mixing down
of higher momentum winds from aloft during the deeper afternoon
mixing.


&&


.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)

VFR conditions forecast to be the primary flight conditions at
all terminal sites through Wednesday. Mid level moisture pooling
along a boundary this afternoon will lead to a 15% to 40% chance
for isolated to scattered showers across Nevada. VCTS will be
possible for all terminals with the exception of KTPH through 03Z
this evening, with any storms that do form will dissipate quickly
after sunset. Hazards include gusty outflow winds up to 35KT,
brief heavy rain, and a few lightning strikes. Winds outside of
storms, will be based on the location of the boundary, to its
north, winds will be light out of the W to WNW at 5KT to 10KT,
winds south of the boundary will be out of the SW at 5KT to 15 KT
with gusts up to 25 KT possible.

KTPH remains AMD NOT SKED due to communications issues with the
ASOS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Over all high pressure will dominate the districts through
Wednesday. Expect mostly dry conditions through the forecast
period this evening through next Tuesday. However with some
middle level moisture, instability and lift, for this evening there
is forecast scattered to isolated dry and wet dry thunderstorms
across northern portions of Humboldt, most of Elko, White Pine,
Eureka, and northern Nye counties. A low pressure shortwave is
forecast to move across southern Oregon and Idaho and northern
Nevada on Wednesday with a northward shift of scattered to isolated
dry and wet afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorm across
that area. SPC has a marginal risk for some of those thunderstorms
producing strong down draft wind gusts in excess of 45 knots.
Farther south across portions of southern Eureka, Lander, White
Pine, and northern Nye the forecast is indicating that conditions
will be too dry for thunderstorm develop. A low pressure trough is
forecast to move across the fire weather zones producing some
marginal warm, dry and breezy impacts Friday and Saturday during the
afternoon and evening hours. Another shortwave trough is forecast
across northern and central Nevada Monday into Tuesday of next week.
&&


.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...98/85
AVIATION...98
FIRE WEATHER...85