York, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

348
FXUS63 KGID 130548
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1148 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An upper level disturbance crossing through the area late
  tonight into Wednesday will bring precipitation chances back
  to the forecast. Best chances look to be mid-late evening on
  into Wednesday morning, favoring areas mainly along/east of
  HWY 281. Can`t rule out a few non-severe thunderstorms.

- Gusty NW winds are expected through the day on Wednesday
  behind a passing cold front. Gusts of 35-40 MPH are not out of
  the question.

- Dry conditions are expected Thursday through Saturday, with
  preciptiation chances ramping back up early next week as
  another upper level low looks to cross the Plains. Still
  plenty of timing/track details to iron out...at this time this
  looks to be a rain event.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 359 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

Currently...

Upper air and satellite data showing the area currently sitting
under southwesterly flow...set up between a disturbance making
its way east through CO and broad ridging centered from the
Gulf Coast northward toward the western Great Lakes region.
Outside of far western portions of the forecast area, skies
elsewhere have been mostly to outright sunny today. At the
surface, a tightened pressure gradient remains across the
region...sandwiched between a massive area of high pressure
centered over the Great Lakes/Ontario region and low
pressure/troughing over the High Plains. This has resulted in
gusty southeasterly winds today...at times near 40 MPH.
Temperatures across the forecast area actually exceeded
expectations this afternoon, with every ASOS/AWOS reaching the
60s. Most spots are in the low-mid 60s...but a few spots in far
SW areas have crept into the upper 60s.

This evening through Wednesday...

Models showing this upper level disturbance currently moving
through CO taking a more east-northeast path through the
Central Plains this evening into Wednesday, bringing another
round of precipitation chances to the forecast area. Agreement
is pretty good showing the timing of the upper system moving
tonight into western portions of the forecast by 12Z
Wednesday...then into western IA by evening. Expecting at least
the early evening hours to remain dry...with models then showing
increasing potential for spotty/scattered activity developing
along/east of the surface dry line. This activity looks to
mainly be focused across the southern half of the area, and with
models showing the potential of a few hundred j/kg of
CAPE...can`t rule out some thunderstorms developing. Kept
precipitation chances broad through the overnight hours...as
increased lift from the upper low itself spreads across the
area, and the accompanying surface cold front will be making its
way in from the NW. Kept the west-east departure of
precipitation chances on the slower side during the morning
hours...even kept some 20 percent chances lingering in the east
into early afternoon.

Surface cold front is currently expected to be roughly halfway
through the forecast area around 12Z Wednesday, ushering in
NWrly winds area-wide by late morning. Similar to today, gusty
conditions are expected, potentially upwards of 35-40
MPH...only difference is Wednesday`s winds will be out of the NW
(vs the SE today). Expecting more cloud cover to start the
day...but along with precip chances, coverage will clear from
west to east with time. The airmass accompanying the front isn`t
a significant change, but highs are expected to be cooler than
today, with most areas forecast in the mid-upper 50s.

Wednesday night-early Thursday morning...dry conditions
expected, with mostly clear skies. Winds don`t totally die
off, but will drop off closer to 5-10MPH by sunrise...and colder
temps are expected. Overnight lows are forecast to drop into
the mid-upper 20s in the northwest to low 30s in the southeast.

Thursday through Saturday...

Overall quiet conditions are expected for the latter part of the
work week into the start of the weekend...with models in good
agreement showing the upper level pattern being dominated by
upper level ridging. At 12Z Thursday, models showing the main
ridge axis being pretty broad and roughly centered through the
Plains...amplifying and sliding east into Friday as the next
storm system/trough moves onto the West Coast. Flow turns
southwesterly on Saturday as that western CONUS system pushes
further inland...with a closed low potentially developing in the
CA/AZ/Mex border area Saturday night (still some differences
between models to work out).

Expecting mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies through this
period...with mainly southerly winds. Highs for Thu-Fri are in
the upper 50s-low 60s...with low-mid 60s forecast for
Saturday.

Sunday in the start of the new work week...

Main story for Sunday and more so into Monday and Tuesday will
lie with the track of that upper level low. Models are in
generally decent agreement looking at the big picture...showing
the upper low moving east along the Mexico border, then taking a
more northeastward turn out of NM Monday morning. During the
day Monday into Monday night, this system continues moving
northeast into the Central Plains...but that far out in time,
models have some timing/location/strength differences to iron
out. During the day on Sunday, NBM kept some 20 percent chances
across southern portions of the forecast area...possible those
PoPs could end up being removed. Model thermal profiles continue
to support this being a rain event.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1147 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
Threat for scattered thunderstorms persists into the early
overnight (TEMPO groups 06-09Z to highlight the most favored
time frame), with additional off and on showers into Wednesday
morning. Ceilings are likely (70-80% chance) to drop to MVFR for
at least some portion of especially the 09-18Z time frame, with
a chance (20-40%) for them dip to IFR at least briefly.

A sharp cold front sweeps across the area Wednesday morning, and is
expected to move through the KEAR/KGRI area in the 12-15Z
timeframe. North-northwesterly gusts over 35kts are possible at
times through the afternoon.

Skies clear from west to the east through the afternoon, and winds
decrease substantially after sunset.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...Mangels/Pfannkuch