York, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

926
FXUS63 KGID 020955
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
455 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Although various, intermittent chances for rain still litter
  our forecast the next 3-4 days, there is little-to-no concern
  for severe thunderstorms, with anything more than a few
  spotty/weak storms unlikely (not even enough a chance to
  carry thunder in our official forecast at this time).

- The only content currently highlighted in our latest Hazardous
  Weather Outlook (HWOGID) is a fairly marginal mention of near-
  critical fire weather conditions this afternoon within parts
  of our Kansas coverage area (CWA).

- There is an outside chance for minor slushy snow accumulation
  mainly within our northwest half late Fri night-Sat AM IF it`s
  still precipitating as temperatures become cold enough to
  support snow, but at this time this possibility is low enough
  confidence (and probably low enough impact) that it`s not yet
  deemed worthy of HWO inclusion.

- Temperature-wise: at least the majority of the next week will
  lean on the slightly-cooler side for early-April, with highs
  most days/most areas only 40s/50s and lows on most nights
  20s/30s (a warmer pattern appears to be looming starting
  middle of next week).

- Going hand in hand with previous: some of these upcoming
  colder nights (particularly this weekend when lows in the 20s
  are most likely) should serve as a reminder that despite our
  very mild March and recent partial green-up, THE GROWING
  SEASON HAS NOT YET STARTED (we typically don`t start issuing
  Frost/Freeze headlines until at least mid-late April)

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 454 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

-- UP FRONT/ADMIN NOTE:
Check back here by 545 AM for an updated/complete discussion,
but wanted to at least ship out the KEY MESSAGES along with a
recap of last evening`s round of severe storms now.

- RECAP OF TUESDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING WEATHER/SEVERE STORMS:
As discussed here the last few mornings, Tuesday`s low pressure
system was somewhat of a "forecast headache" right up until the
zero-hour, as it not only featured potential hazards other than
possible severe storms (some...such as daytime wind gusts of
45+ MPH most areas and potential blowing dust in our
southwest...didn`t materialize), while the coverage/intensity of
severe storms was always question due to limited low-level
moisture return, uncertainty in track of surface low center,
etc.).

As it turned out, the main low pressure system moved eastward
into our area a bit slower and a bit farther south (latitude
wise) than generally expected even 24 hours ago, which gave
overall- meager moisture a little more time to surge/wrap northward
ahead of it in "just in time" fashion. However, even with
surface dewpoints only mid-upper 40s at best in most of our CWA,
the combo of mainly slightly-elevated instability/CAPE on the
order of 500-1000 J/kg in combo with intense deep-layer shear
50-70KT proved sufficient to ignite at least 5 separate elevated
supercells within several counties along/north of I-80 between
7-11 PM. These storms yielded several reports of hail ranging
from nickel to golf ball size, along with a wind gust to 73 MPH
at Grand Island airport. In northwest Grand island, some power
pole and miscellaneous minor damage was reported, which we
believe could have been caused by a briefly-strong gustnado
(based on some video/photos). If anything, these elevated storms
in our north "overachieved" a bit versus expectations, but
fortunately (and as expected) our far southeastern zones were
almost entirely spared the region`s "main show" of severe storms
that impacted central-into-northeast KS.

On a positive note: While the majority of our CWA missed out on
meaningful rainfall, portions of several of our northern
counties (especially roughly 10 miles either side of a Ravenna-
St. Paul-Fullerton line) picked up a widespread 0.75-1.50".

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Tue Apr 1 2025

A cold front is slowly moving to the ESE from the TAF sites
tonight. Looking at upstream obs and the RAP`s 925MB RH I would
expect an IFR ceiling to move into the TAF sites in the next
couple of hours. The winds will slowly back tonight and will
become westerly and gusty this morning. Ceilings will gradually
rise to MVFR before scattering out this evening.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...NWS Hastings