Ogallala, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

475
FXUS63 KLBF 051711
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1211 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Precipitation chances tonight into Monday morning

- Elevated to near critical fire weather concerns on Wednesday
  with drier and warmer conditions and gusty winds

- Precipitation chances mid-week into the end of the
  week/weekend

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 202 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Surface high pressure will track south of the forecast area
through Kansas this morning. Westerly winds will develop on the
back side of the exiting high later this morning persisting into
the afternoon hours. Winds will be generally light across the
western half of the forecast area today with stronger winds
expected over the northeastern forecast area. A warmer airmass
will build into the forecast area today in advance of an
approaching back door cold front. Highs this afternoon will
reach the middle to upper 60s across the forecast area. Minimum
RH this afternoon will reach 15 to 20 percent across
southwestern Nebraska. Winds will be fairly light this afternoon
over areas where near critical RH is located. Even with the
stronger winds over northeastern areas, minimum RH in the 25 to
30 percent range will preclude any critical fire danger
conditions. Tonight, a shortwave trough will drop south into
Minnesota. This will force a backdoor cold front through the
forecast area overnight. Behind the frontal passage overnight
into Monday morning, increasing post frontal, mid- level
frontogenesis will increase from central South Dakota into
northeastern and eastern Nebraska. This will lead to an
increased threat for precipitation overnight tonight into Monday
morning. Given forecast timing of best lift, precipitation will
fall as light snow. As for QPF and snow amounts, the latest NBM
ensembles indicate very low probabilities (10 to 20%) of QPF >
0.05" during the 12 hr period from 06z to 18z Monday. That being
said, will keep pops low- ie. slight chance as little to no QPF
is expected. Mid level forcing will weaken Monday afternoon,
ending the threat for precipitation. However, with easterly
winds behind the backdoor front and expected cloud cover, highs
will struggle to get out of the 40s in northern Nebraska Monday.
Further south, some breaks in cloud cover are expected toward
SW Nebraska. This will allow highs to reach into the middle 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 202 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Southerly winds will increase on Tuesday with gusty winds of 15
to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. There may be an elevated
concern for fire weather on Tuesday afternoon, however at this
time moisture advection should keep min RH above 25 percent, and
the strongest winds will be across the northern portion of the
forecast area and not overlapping the lowest RH across southwest
Nebraska. Upper level ridge begins to break down into mid-
week. An upper level low will pass north across the northern
plains on Wednesday with a trailing cold front. Uncertainty
still remains on the timing of the cold front passage through
the area, there is about a 6 hour discrepancy in the models and
the timing of the frontal passage will be very important in
regards to fire weather concerns and temperatures. At the moment
fire weather concerns look to have a brief period of elevated
to near critical generally across southwest Nebraska where
temperatures are expected to reach the upper 60s to low 70s and
min RH will be in the upper teens to 20s. However if the front
slows and the front passage is later could see compressional
heating out ahead of the front and will see warmer temperatures
and the potential for lower min RH, leading to greater fire wx
concerns, will need to continue to monitor the system.

Precipitation chances will increase Wednesday evening into
Thursday. At this time the mode of precipitation generally looks
like rain showers, with the greatest potential for thunderstorm
chances east of the forecast area into central and eastern
Nebraska. As temperatures cool behind the front there may be a
chance for a rain/snow mix in the overnight hours across
portions of western and north central Nebraska. Although
temperatures will be cooler on Thursday after the cold front
passage, they will still be near normal for this time of year
with highs in the 50s, thus if there is any snow accumulations,
they should not hang around long and any rain/snow mix will only
be in the overnight hours when the temperatures will be in the
20s to low 30s, then precipitation should change back to all
rain by Thursday afternoon.

To end the week and into the weekend, the pattern at this time looks
to be a little more active and could see precipitation chances
persist into the weekend. Temperatures should remain mild with highs
in the 50s to 60s through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

VFR conditions are expected this evening into Monday morning.
Northwest winds of 5 to 10 knots will continue through the
afternoon, with gusts up to 20 knots, especially across north
central Nebraska. Winds will shift to the northeast this evening and
overnight at 5-10 knots before becoming easterly Monday morning with
speeds increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Skies will remain mostly clear
through the evening, with mid to high clouds moving into the area
overnight into Monday morning, particularly across western and north-
central Nebraska.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Buttler
LONG TERM...Gomez
AVIATION...Jacobs/Labenz