Ogallala, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

045
FXUS63 KLBF 101115
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
615 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near to above average temperatures arrive today and are
  expected through the end of the week.

- A cold front stalls across the region tonight, bringing near
  daily chances of showers and thunderstorms through the
  weekend.

- A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms
  Wednesday and Thursday, with wind and hail the primary
  concerns. Main area of concern Wednesday is along and east of
  Highway 281. For Thursday, the risk covers most of southwest
  into north central Nebraska.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

With upper level ridging and high pressure across the region today,
temperatures climb above seasonal averages. Widespread highs in the
upper 80s to lower 90s are expected, with some portions of southwest
Nebraska reaching into the mid 90s. Throughout the day, a low
pressure system tracks south across the Dakotas, tracking into
northern Nebraska tonight. As this low and associated cold front
track into the region, it may provide enough forcing for showers and
thunderstorms along and north of the Highway 20 corridor.

The front is expected to stall out across the Sandhills on
Wednesday, though the exact location of where it stalls is still a
bit uncertain. To the north of the front, temperatures remain on the
cooler side, but will generally be around seasonal averages which is
typically in the lower 80s. South of the front, temperatures remain
warmer than average, with highs remaining in the upper 80s to lower
90s.

Along the front, dew point temperatures are expected to reach the
upper 50s to lower 60s, providing plenty of moisture for
thunderstorm development. Current high resolution guidance places
CAPE values around 1000 to 2500 J/kg across the northern Sandhills
into north central Nebraska. The forecast soundings show a
relatively tall CAPE profile, and modest shear ahead of the front.
LCLs remain relatively high, suggesting higher based convection, and
primarily a hail and wind threat. With these ingredients in place,
the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of
5) across portions of north central Nebraska on Wednesday, mainly
along and east of the Highway 281 corridor.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

The front remains stalled out across the region Thursday, with
guidance suggesting a dry line tracking across western Nebraska.
With dewpoints remaining in the upper 50s to lower 60s, moisture
remains abundant for thunderstorm development. Shear again appears
marginal on Thursday, but may be supportive of another round of
strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday afternoon into the evening.
Another Marginal Risk has been issued for Thursday, covering most of
western and north central Nebraska, with wind and hail being the
primary concerns. Will also be keeping an eye on the forecast trends
for potential heavy rainfall along and east of Highway 83.

A series of disturbances track through the region into the weekend,
bringing continuing chances of precipitation through the weekend.
Will need to keep an eye on how these fronts track through the
region, as warm air advection from the south keeps temperatures
above average south of the fronts, where temperatures may remain in
the upper 80s to lower 90s into early next week. Along and north of
the fronts, temperature forecasts are likely to continue fluctuating
as frontal placement will greatly determine temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 614 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across western and north
central Nebraska today through tomorrow morning. Of note today will
be the potential for gusty winds across northern Nebraska, with
gusts generally expected to remain less than 20 knots. Clouds track
into the region tonight, ahead of an advancing cold front, with no
impacts on ceilings. More concerning tonight is the potential for
LLWS across southwest and north central Nebraska. In general, winds
aloft are expected out of the south around 35 knots, however
guidance is in a bit of disagreement at which level. Will omit LLWS
from TAFs for now, but expect it will be back in future TAFs as
guidance comes into better agreement.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Richie
LONG TERM...Richie
AVIATION...Richie