North Platte, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

620
FXUS63 KLBF 102204
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
404 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions are largely expected through the forecast
  period with only light rain possible in the east Tuesday
  night into Wednesday.

- Strong winds ahead of and behind a frontal passages Tuesday
  night will lead to gusts around 40 mph.

- Temperatures are generally expected to remain above normal
  with afternoon highs likely to reach the 50s and 60s each day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 403 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

Afternoon satellite analysis depicts rapidly clearing skies after
morning stratus dissipated. Heavy snowcover remains expansive over
eastern Colorado but is safely displaced to the southwest of the
local area. Streaming cirrus clouds across the peaks of Wyoming help
illustrate general zonal flow across much of the central and western
CONUS as low-amplitude ridging centers over northern Mexico and the
next disturbance approaches the Pacific Northwest.

For tonight...broad high pressure will begin to nose in from the
north with surface height rises as a result. This should allow winds
to gradually wane. Previously mentioned mid to upper-level clouds
will stream across South Dakota and may intrude across far northern
Nebraska. Otherwise, partly to mostly clear skies are expected
across the area. Various high-res guidance including HREF/SREF
ensemble outputs paints some modest visibility issues in the form of
light fog. Meanwhile the HRRR is much more aggressive with more
expansive sub 1SM visibilities. For now, will omit any mention of
fog given weak low HREF/SREF probabilities and pass along to
incoming shift to monitor trends. Low temperatures will range from
near 30 degF in the west to the upper 30s in the east.

Veterans Day...dry conditions will again prevail across the area.
Aforementioned high pressure will continue to settle south with a
backdoor cool front moving into north central Nebraska. This should
hold back temperatures in this area. Have trended temperatures
towards the cooler MET guidance as a result which has most locations
holding in the middle 40s. Meanwhile, further south and west, strong
southerly flow should prevail and bolster temperatures into the 50s
to near 60 degF. Winds should remain modest across the area though a
few locations across the Sandhills could see gusts nearing 20 to 25
mph during the afternoon. Southerly flow will likely increase Monday
evening as high pressure settles east and a surface low begins to
take shape across southwest Canada. This will prompt an influx of
richer low-level moisture, directed right through western Nebraska.
As a result, a fairly narrow swath of milder low temperatures are
forecast Monday night with lows only falling to around 40 degF near
a North Platte to Cody line but falling off in either direction to
the low 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 403 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

Tuesday and Wednesday...The only potential for precipitation in the
period. Latest ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index advertises anomalous
sustained winds as well as gusts with values nearing 0.6-0.7. Little
to no Shift of Tails values indicates little to no outliers within
the ensemble suite that would suggest more noteworthy speeds. WAA
will ramp up as lee-troughing forms along the high plains. Strong
h85 flow will peak around the late morning hours for areas east of
Highway 83. With the influx of moisture, the threat for lingering
low-stratus and possibly fog will need monitored. Latest forecast
for winds closely aligns with NBM probabilities where it`s near 100%
probability of seeing gusts exceed 22 knots (25 mph) and ranging
from 50-90% for gusts to exceed 34 knots (39 mph). The latter of
these probabilities are highest across the our northern zones with a
continuation of these up through much of central Nebraska. High
temperatures Tuesday will again reach the 50s for most locations.
Later in the day, a frontal boundary extending south from a surface
low tracking along the International Border. Winds will flip from
south to northwest quickly as the front passes. NAM guidance
suggests slight positive anomalies with respect to PWATs with values
around 0.50". Frontal forcing will be adequate to lead to at least
isolated to scattered showers across our eastern zones. It`s worth
mentioning that the NBM fails to resolve PoPs in our western zones
where the NAM supported by some SREF guidance suggests precipitation
forming off the Black Hills and Laramie Range moving into our
western zones. For now, PoPs are only confined to our eastern zones
and particularly east of Highway 83 but later forecasts may require
including PoPs in our west as well. QPF appears to remain light.
Even with slightly above climatological PWATs, the progressive
nature of the front as well invading dry air should prevent longer
duration precipitation event. As a result, QPF will likely be
limited to a quarter of an inch or less for all locations. While the
SPC maintains a general thunder outlook for our eastern zones, poor
overlap of lapse rates and forcing should preclude much if any
convective nature to the activity and so not expecting any QPF
"surprises". With flipped winds to the northwest on Wednesday,
slightly cooler temperatures are expected but values should manage
to hold onto the 50s still. Gusts will also be weaker, given a
weaker signal in EFI and deterministic solutions. Even so, gusts may
approach 25 to 30 mph.

Thursday and beyond...shortwave ridging arrives by early Thursday
with strong mid-level height rises across much of the central
Plains. The next disturbance will approach the West Coast sometime
late in the week with broadening southwesterly flow in the lead up to
this. All this to say that temperatures should remain above normal
through the forecast period. Precipitation potential will need
monitored but for now, the forecast remains dry for the time frame.
Ensemble guidance hold most precipitation potential outside the
local area and little evidence exists to suggest this changing in a
significant way.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1123 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

Lingering low clouds are expected to diminish within the hour
for the two TAF sites, KVTN and KLBF terminals, however could
see low clouds and MVFR or lower conditions for locations east
of HWY 83, lingering over the next couple hours, but expect all
areas within the forecast region to be VFR by mid afternoon.
Skies will clear out for the afternoon and evening with only
scattered high clouds expected. Winds will be light generally
out of the west, but variable at times, with wind speeds of less
than 10 kts expected today into Monday morning. Winds will
begin to shift to the east by late Monday morning.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NMJ
LONG TERM...NMJ
AVIATION...Gomez