Norfolk, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

862
FXUS63 KOAX 120333
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1033 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- After today`s showers wrap up, mainly dry conditions and
  seasonal temperatures are expected through the mid-week.

- Warmth returns by Friday, with increasing chances for heat
  indices to hit 100 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

WV imagery reveals broad trofing across the CONUS with a
tightly wound shortwave near Falls City and a broader wave
directly on its heels. As a result, the broad lift has produced
overcast skies and low convection. Very little lightning was
observed, but the vorticity and low-level lapse rates have
telephone lines lightning up around the Kearney area with many
reports of non-supercell tornadoes. Our lapse rates leave a lot
to be desired, so don`t expect those funnel reports to cause our
phones to ring at this WFO. Otherwise, expect showers to taper
and end by about 10pm as they push east.

Clouds will be hesitant to clear for all but the northern two
tiers of counties overnight with the front hung up in northwest
Missouri. As a result, the municipalities that saw the warmest
temps this afternoon (80s) will see the greatest amount of
radiative cooling overnight and end up among the coolest
locations. While Omaha and Shenandoah should hold mid-60s,
Norfolk and Albion may drop closer to 60 under the stars. The
clear skies and calm wind brings concerns for fog development,
but 19Z CAM guidance produces fog only where today`s heaviest
rainfall fell. Have added patchy AM fog to the grids there.

.TUESDAY...

As the second shortwave pushes through the area on Tuesday,
it`ll amplify the upper trof and drag a cold front through the
area. CAA at H8 lasts only about 8 hours, but high temps (78-85)
will fall shy of seasonal norms by about five degrees. Behind
the front, the winds will be blowing out of the north, having
completed a 270 degree veering in about 24 hours. The weak
surface high on Tuesday night means light and variable winds,
clear skies, and another consideration of patchy fog.

.WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY and MORE...

Widespread sunshine and southerly return flow help drive temps
warmer as ridging produces notable height rises across the
central CONUS. A shortwave traipsing through the Dakotas on
Wednesday may produce some severe weather or at least some rain
and thunder, but Nebraska and northern Iowa look to be glanced
by the system at best... at least from this vantage.

By Thursday, western- most locales should hit 90F with the rest
of the area hitting or flirting with that mark by Friday and
Saturday. With dewpoints expected in the low 70s, heat indices
should top 100F. Model guidance is in relative agreement that
zonal flow will develop early next week. This should bring and
end to the dry spell and deliver regular chances for showers /
thunder as a parade of shortwaves is likely to be driven across
the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1029 PM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

VFR conditions are favored this evening before fog developments
in western Iowa and spreads into eastern Nebraska later tonight.
Fog is expected to impact KOMA and KOFK, with lower confidence
in impacts at KLNK. Fog is expected to produce MVFR conditions
overnight, with patchy areas of IFR to LIFR conditions possible.
Fog will gradually improve after sunrise, with VFR conditions
expected through the following afternoon and evening. Winds will
remain calm and variable overnight before becoming westerly in
the morning and veering to northerly by the afternoon.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Wood