McCook, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

917
FXUS63 KGLD 160556
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1156 PM MDT Sun Mar 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and warming trend expected throughout the week, fire
  weather conditions increase throughout the week.

- Breezy conditions expected and patchy blowing dust possible
  Tuesday midday and afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1146 PM MDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Early this morning, the remainder of the low pressure system that
brought high winds to the area yesterday will be exiting to the
east. Northerly CAA will persist this morning, and occasional gusts
around 10 kts are expected around sunrise as temperatures fall into
the 7-12 degree range. This will lead to wind chills ranging from
-10 to 0.

Thankfully, this afternoon, a ridge will be building in from the
south, allowing some southerly advection. There won`t be a lot of
warming from this wind shift, but it will keep temperatures from
dropping any further. Highs today are forecast to climb into the
40s, with the southwestern CWA warming up the most.

This ridge will persist until tomorrow midday, allowing southerly
flow to continue until then. This will work to bring some warmer
temperatures into the CWA. Overnight tonight, lows look to
largely remain in the 20s with pockets cooling into the upper
teens. Tomorrow, is forecast to warm into the 70s ahead of our
next cold front.

This cold front poses a risk for patchy blowing dust. Winds with and
behind the cold front are forecast to gust around 30 kts from the
northwest. HREF probabilities for greater than 30 MPH are above 50%
for locations along and north of I-70, however are only greater than
35% for 35 MPH gusts north of U.S. 34. Lapse rates from GFS, NAM,
RAP, and SREF all show 0-2 km lapse rates are high, supporting
lofting. All but the RAP also show a capping layer at 2-2.5 km,
increasing confidence in blowing dust reducing visibilities. As it
stands, there is a 10% chance of less than 1 mile visibility in
blowing dust along and north of I-70, increasing to 25% along and
north of U.S. 34. Most likely timing for blowing dust will be
between 18-0Z. If dust occurs, plumes are most likely, with a less
than 2% chance of a haboob.

On the plus side, dew points are expected to rebound and keep
minimum RH values in the upper teens to low 20s. This will limit the
fire weather threat for Tuesday afternoon.

Overnight Tuesday, even though a cold front will have moved through,
with the increased dew points, temperatures are forecast to remain
in the 30s. No notable precipitation is expected in the short-
term.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 137 PM MDT Sun Mar 15 2026

No changes seen in the long term forecast as a long wave ridge
over the Great Basin will dominate the weather pattern for the
majority of this week. Looking at probabilities for highs during
the latter half of the week, the current forecast still looks
to be well on track. Temperatures will warm through the week
with not much seen in the way of precipitation. As for now, well
above normal temperatures are in the forecast later this week
with daytime highs on Friday and Saturday currently forecast
between 85-90 degrees.

The main concern though this week will be fire weather with the
increasing temperatures and dry conditions in the forecast.
Relative humidity values will fall to around 15% across most if
not all of the area for the good majority of the week. Currently
Tuesday and Wednesday have the potential to be the breeziest
with an increasing 850mb jet embedded within the northwest flow.
Wind gusts of 30-35 mph are forecast Tuesday favoring the
northwest portion of the area. With anticipated deep mixing in
place would not be surprised if each afternoon localized gusts
up to 25 mph would occur.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 956 PM MDT Sun Mar 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both KGLD and KMCK
through the period. KMCK will see gusts in the 20-30 kts range
become less frequent between 6-9Z. KGLD may see occasional gusts
around 20 kts 6-7Z and during the afternoon hours today.
Otherwise, good flying conditions are forecast!

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Strong to damaging winds are forecast to continue through this
afternoon and evening with northerly winds of 35-45 mph gusting
up to around 70 mph. Wind direction is not expected to shift
much if at all during this time. Going into the night, GDFI
values drop into the single digits as winds lessen quite a bit
with gusts up to around 15 mph. After midnight, winds look to
take on a northwesterly component with colder area low
temperatures in the upper single digits to lower teens range.

Fire weather concerns may continue through this week as well
with a strong signal for well above normal temperatures
especially by the end of the week. Regional ERC forecasts from
NIFC show ERC`s returning into the 90th percentile. At this time
there is no strong signal for a windy day but with deep mixing
most likely due to the warmer temperatures daily wind gusts at
least in the 20-25 mph range may be possible.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...CA
FIRE WEATHER...Trigg