McCook, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

544
FXUS63 KGLD 260621
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1221 AM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild weather is forecast today with clear skies and lighter
  winds. There could be a few sub-severe storms this afternoon
  and evening.

- Another round of potentially severe storms are expected Friday
  afternoon into the evening hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1220 AM MDT Thu Jun 26 2025

The remainder of the early morning hours are expected to see storm
activity lower and push east of the area as the air becomes more
stable, outflows push off to the east, and the upper shortwave also
shifts east. With the remnants of showers and storms upstream in
Central Colorado, skies are forecast to remain cloudy through the
night and help keep temperatures generally in the 60s.

For today, a fairly mild day is forecast for the area as the upper
pattern over the area is forecast to be somewhat zonal, keeping the
flow weak. With the weak flow, winds are forecast to be lighter
around 5 to 15 mph tomorrow. Sunny skies are forecast for the area
due to marginally drier air that is forecast to push into the area,
allowing temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 80s.

Late in the afternoon and evening, there is the possibility of a few
storms as guidance hints at a very weak upper low upstream of the
area with a weak surface low pushing through the area. On top of
causing the winds to slowly shift to out of the east during the day,
these features may allow some storms to develop either over the
higher terrain in Eastern Colorado or along convergence boundaries.
With the drier air in place, storm coverage and intensity are
forecast to be fairly low, potentially with no storms forming at all.
If storms did form while the surface low pulled in some more
moisture, we could see storms pop up across more of the area along
outflow boundaries. Even then, storms would be unlikely to be severe
or long lived.

Tonight, some cloud cover could linger if storms managed to form,
but otherwise mostly clear skies are forecast. Winds are also
forecast to be light as the pressure gradient weakens. With this,
low temperatures should cool to near dewpoints around 60
degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1255 PM MDT Wed Jun 25 2025

A weak shortwave trough sliding through the lee side of the
Rockies and a weak surface low over southeast Wyoming and
western Nebraska will tap into a marginally unstable atmosphere
across the western and northern portions of the CWA to produce
some isolated convective activity late Friday afternoon into
Friday evening along a weak dry line boundary. Any storms that
form should be very short-lived and isolated as a lack of
moisture and limited deep layer forcing will keep updrafts from
sustaining themselves for any long period of time. Temperatures
will also be significantly warmer on Friday as the drier airmass
easily heats up into the low to mid 90s.

The heat will be on this Saturday as a weak shortwave ridge
builds over the area. Increased subsidence will limit cloud
development and allow highs to climb into the upper 90s or a
good 10 degrees above average. Although overall rain chances
will be low, there could be enough heating to overcome a weak
capping inversion aloft by the late afternoon and evening that
will support an isolated thunderstorm. If storms fire up, they
could produce some gusty winds due to the dry airmass in place
aloft.

Heading into next week from Sunday through Wednesday, a
deepening longwave ridge over the western third of the CONUS
will allow a deep layer northwest flow regime to take hold in
the upper levels. Unfortunately, this sets up a decent pattern
for a series of mesoscale convective complexes to form over
eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska and then sweep to the
southeast across the forecast area each evening as the system
follows the theta e axis. Confidence on this scenario is a bit
lower than average, but is something we need to monitor over the
next couple of days as both a heavy rainfall and severe weather
threat could accompany any MCS that forms. The northwest flow
pattern will allow for cooler temperatures to filter in with
highs cooling back into the mid 80s for next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1105 PM MDT Wed Jun 25 2025

For KGLD... VFR conditions are forecast for the period. Storm
development and coverage is pushing east of the terminal, which
should keep the terminal free of storms. The only thing to watch
for tonight is additional outflow boundaries which could shift
the winds and allow for some low level cloud cover to develop.
Winds in the absence of storms are forecast to remain from the
west/northwest through the night, then shift to out of the
northeast during the day, and then finish from the southeast
after 00Z. Winds should remain around 10 kts or less. There is a
10% chance that a storm or two could move near the terminal
between 00-06Z.

For KMCK... Storms remain within a few counties of the terminal
at the start of the period. With coverage decreasing and the air
becoming more stable, have opted to not include storm mention at
this time. However, storms do remain possible through 09Z,
especially tied to an outflow boundary that should near the
terminal around 06Z. Otherwise, the other thing of note is the
possibility of low ceilings around 1000ft after 10Z as the air
remains fairly moist near the terminal. If the low ceilings
develop, they should end by 15Z. After that, VFR conditions and
clear skies are expected. Winds in the absence of storms are
forecast to be from the west/northwest through the first few
hours after the outflow boundary passes through. Winds should
then slowly shift to be more from the east going into the
afternoon hours.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...Grigsby
AVIATION...KAK