Lincoln, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

001
FXUS63 KOAX 101951
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
151 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Our mid-week system is trending slower, increasing rain
  chances for the area Wednesday morning (40 - 60 percent).
  Gusty winds up to 35 mph in advance of this system will be
  possible Tuesday afternoon.

- Cool, yet slightly above average temperatures are expected
  this week.

- Another round of rain looks increasingly possible this
  weekend, at the very end and just beyond the current forecast
  period. Rain chances as of now are on the order of 20 to 40
  percent.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

...Today through Tuesday...

Longwave ridging is expected to dominate upper-level flow over
the central CONUS through Tuesday. As such, clear and dry
weather is expected for our area during this time frame.
Embedded in this long-wave ridge, a weak low-amplitude shortwave
is expected to dive southeastward across the northern Plains
into the Mississippi River valley Monday afternoon into Tuesday
morning. There will be minimal moisture with this disturbance,
so no rain is expected. The only noticeable impact will be from
a weak cold front that will move north to south across our area
Monday afternoon. High temperatures Monday ahead of the front
(south of I-80) will reach the upper 50s, while behind the front
(north of US-30), high temperatures may not make it out of the
40s. Nighttime lows Monday night look to fall into the low and
mid 30s. The coldest temperatures are expected to be across
west-central Iowa, where lows in the upper 20s can`t be ruled
out.

On Tuesday, ahead of our next storm system, winds will become
south/southeasterly and strengthen to 15-25 mph. Wind gusts up
to 35 mph will be possible, particularly for areas along and
north of US Highway 20.

...Tuesday Night through Saturday...

By Tuesday night, a trough is expected to eject out into the
Great Plains. This system has trended slower with recent model
runs, allowing for more ample moisture return in advance of this
disturbance. Additionally, this will allow for a surface low to
develop in the central Plains and track northeast into the upper
Great Lakes region. As a result, scattered showers are expected
to develop along and ahead of a surface cold front late Tuesday
night and persist into Wednesday afternoon. All of eastern
Nebraska and western Iowa will potentially see rain during this
time frame, with the greatest probabilities (50 to 60 percent)
across northeast Nebraska and west-central Iowa Wednesday
morning. The rest of the forecast area will see a 40 to 50
percent chance of rain before the front pushes east of our
region Wednesday evening. Even with surface dewpoints into the
50s, no severe weather is expected at this time, though an
isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out owing to fairly steep
(7 to 8 C/km) mid-level lapse rates. Rainfall totals, though
higher than previous versions of this forecast, are still
expected to remain under 0.25 inches as of now. Should this
system trend even slower and not move through the region until
Wednesday afternoon and night, there would be a greater chance
for precipitation and higher rainfall amounts (higher end
estimated would be closer to half an inch). However, this still
appears to be a less likely scenario at this time.

Ridging will build into the central CONUS behind this storm
system, bringing clear skies and highs near 60 degrees for our
area Thursday and Friday.

Medium range guidance is generally in agreement that the next
chance for rain will be this weekend. By Saturday (the end of
this forecast period), both the EURO and GFS have a positively
tilted, longwave trough over the western CONUS, with the trough
axis extending from the northern High Plains southwest into
central California. At the surface ahead of this disturbance,
ample moisture return seems probable, with surface dew points
rising into the 50s and PWAT values returning to the 0.5" to
1.0" range. There is still substantial variability between
models and model runs. Nonetheless, there will be at least lower
end probabilities (20 to 30 percent) for scattered showers to
develop and move into our region from the south/southwest.
Saturday afternoon/evening. The higher precipitation chances
appear to be beyond this forecast period (Sunday into Monday),
so will refrain on any further discussion with this storm system
for now.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1102 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

Lingering patchy MVFR stratus continues to persist across much
of eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, primarily along and north
of I-80. Short-term guidance has struggled to pick up on these
clouds, so there is some uncertainty regarding the end of MVFR
ceilings at KOFK and KOMA. KOMA will see clearing sometime
between 20Z and 23Z, and KOFK may see MVFR stratus linger to
02Z. Have opted for a quicker clearing with our weekend storm
system lifting further northeast and will amend the TAFs if
clouds look to persist. Brief periods of broken MVFR stratus are
possible at KLNK, but the prevailing condition will be to have
periods of scattered clouds that will not impact flight
categories at this TAF site.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Darrah
AVIATION...Darrah