Lexington, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

000
FXUS63 KGID 221144
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
544 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- All-in all, an incredibly mild and "quiet" weather pattern
  persists through the 7-day (near-record to perhaps record-
  warmth possible Dec. 24-26...see separate CLIMATE section
  below for details).

- Although not yet in our official forecast, there are starting
  to be signs that the expected warmth Wed-Thurs (including
  Christmas Day) COULD BE muted somewhat by stubborn low clouds
  and/or fog...something to keep an eye on.

- The entire 7-day remains void of any official rain/snow
  chances, although there are at least hints that a somewhat-
  strong cold frontal passage this weekend bears watching for
  very light/minimal precip potential.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 424 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

-- ANY NOTABLE CHANGES WITHIN THE 7-DAY FORECAST FROM PREVIOUS
  ISSUANCE?:
Not "high impact" by any means, but as mentioned in Key Messages
above and covered in previous discussion below, forecast high
temps for Wed-Thurs (Christmas Eve-Christmas Day) continue to
gradually nudge downward (possible low cloud/fog impacts), while
temps for Friday are gradually trending upward.


-- BRIEF HIGHLIGHTS/UNCERTAINTIES OF DAYS 3-7 (Wed-Sun):
- In addition to the possible low/cloud fog concerns already
  mentioned for Wed-Thurs, the main things to watch include:
1) Could we eventually need a small precipitation chance around
Saturday night?

2) Could the cool-down from Saturday into Sunday be a bit
sharper than currently indicated (depends on cold front
strength)?


-- EXCLUSIVE FOCUS ON THE SHORTER TERM/NEXT 48 HOURS:
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 330 AM:
As expected, it`s been a dry, but seasonably-mild and somewhat-
breezy night across our forecast area (CWA). In the mid-upper
levels, water vapor satellite imagery and short term model data
clearly indicate an expansive/broad low-amplitude ridge draped
across much of the United States, keeping things fairly quiet
across much of the nation (primary exception the appreciable
moisture/flooding concerns on the West Coast). Closer to home,
skies overnight have have been mostly clear with only limited
amounts of passing high clouds, although the northern/western
fringes of some developing lower clouds are noted within south
central/eastern KS...not terribly far away.

At the surface, south-southwesterly breezes have started to ease
a bit from earlier in the night, but most of the CWA still
reports sustained speeds at least 6-12 MPH with some higher
gusts. Low temps are on track to eventually bottom out between
28-33 degrees most places.


- TODAY:
Guaranteed dry continues, and it`s also all but guaranteed that
our entire CWA will climb a solid 10-20 degrees warmer than
yesterday...just a matter of how much so. Sky cover-wise, the
northern/northwestern fringes of the developing low clouds to
our south could end up flirting with/possibly barely brushing
into our extreme southeast CWA (mainly Mitchell up toward Thayer
counties) later this morning. However, even if this occurs any
low clouds should steadily vacate east this afternoon, with the
vast majority of our CWA seeing sunny/mostly sunny skies today
under only limited amounts of passing high cirrus. Meanwhile at
the surface, a weaker pressure gradient ensures it will not be
as breezy as yesterday, with most of the day featuring south-
southwesterly sustained winds only 5-15 MPH/gusts 10-20 MPH
(overall-strongest north and east and lightest southwest).

Again, the only real question today is how much of a warm-up do
we see? Pronounced low-level warm advection, the prevailing
south-southwesterly wind direction and the mostly sunny skies
all but ensure a solid warm-up, but somewhat-limited mixing
could mute full warming potential somewhat (and have also taken
into consideration that highs yesterday very slightly "under-
achieved" vs. expectations). The net result is that highs have
been nudged downward slightly (up to a few degrees) most places,
but still calling for a very mild late-December day with highs
ranging from the low 60s southeast, to the mid 60s central (Tri
Cities area), and the upper 60s (MAYBE tagging 70?) far
west/northwest.


- THIS EVENING-TONIGHT:
Quiet and seasonably-mild weather persists under only continued
limited coverage of passing high level clouds. At the surface,
breezes will only average 5-10 MPH, although a weak cold front
will flip direction from south-southwesterly this evening...to
northerly post-midnight and toward sunrise. Low temps changed
very little...most places aimed 32-35 degrees.

About the only "catch" very late tonight into early Tues AM is
whether our far southeast CWA perhaps catches some patchy fog
development that should mostly focus slightly east-southeast of
our CWA altogether in central/eastern KS. That being said, did
technically introduce "patchy fog" potential to parts of
Mitchell County KS based on latest blended model visibility
guidance.


- TUESDAY DAYTIME:
Although still plenty mild, the majority of our CWA (especially
western/northern counties) should be at least 5-10 degrees
cooler than today, due to a combination of weak cool-air
advection behind the aforementioned weak cold front, light
breezes shifting from northerly-to-easterly with time (weak
mixing), and probably somewhat greater coverage of high cloud
cover (although our official forecast calls for no worse than
partly cloudy). The net result are high temps aimed from mid 50s
north to low 60s south (actually very similar to today`s highs
in far southeast counties, but easily 10+ degrees cooler than
today in far northern/western counties such as
Valley/Sherman/Dawson).


- TUESDAY NIGHT:
Here starts the beginning stages of our "Christmas question
marks" regarding the degree of development of low clouds/fog and
possible impacts on high temps. Although not yet in our official
forecast (fog is often fickle to forecast especially beyond 36
hours), particularly the NAM and to some degree the latest HRRR
are becoming more suggestive that much of especially our eastern
CWA could see a fair amount of shallow fog development in the
presence of light south-southeast breezes and high near- surface
relative humidity. That being said, perhaps increasing high
level cloud cover could also be a mitigating factor to more
widespread fog? It`s still a tricky call at this point. No
matter how much/little fog develops, low temps are again aimed
fairly uniform across the CWA...most areas 30-34.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1221 PM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

As expected, a solid south/southwest wind today has developed on the
back side of surface high pressure over Illinois. Winds will
continue to gust the rest of the afternoon and into the early
evenings. Winds will drop off quicker over western areas overnight
as weak lee troughing develops, but could hold up fairly steady to
the east. Low temperatures will likely reflect the wind at any one
location...colder where winds drop and a bit warmer where winds
remain. Yet, lows will largely be 10-15 degrees above normal.

Monday = Big warmup across the area. One interesting feature is
the fact it will be warmer across northern Nebraska than
parts of southern Nebraska and north central Kansas, despite
the fact temperatures aloft (H850) to the south are warmer (than
the north). For example, we expect high temperatures to
approach 70 at Ord but low 60s at Hebron or Mankato. It is
mostly sunny all areas as well. Monday`s high temperatures will
be determined by the wind. High resolution models have been
consistent with a stronger west wind coming out of the Nebraska
Sandhills region and pushing east. That favorable compressional
downslope warming will soar temperatures to 70 degrees in those
areas. A similar thing happens in western areas from Dawson down
to Furnas county. But south/east of Hastings and into parts of
north central Kansas, winds are not nearly as strong (light in
fact) and from a southerly direction. Its still really nice but
that explains the warmer surface temperatures expected to the
north/west forecast and cooler temperatures south/east, despite
the atmospheric thermal profile. Whether you like 62 with light
winds, or 72 with a bit more wind, its still pretty nice for
December 22nd.

Speaking of wind, a cold front will pass through the area Monday
night either side of midnight shifting winds to the north and bring
some cooler air. Winds will veer through the day Tuesday settling
in from the south by Tuesday evening. With a mix of clouds/sun,
highs will be noticably cooler than Monday (50s to around 60)
but still nearly 20 degrees above normal. The frontal passage
will be dry.

Christmas Eve and Christmas Day are still mild...but...there
are trends developing to suggest at least minor changes to the
temperature forecast may be coming. There may be some potential
for low clouds and fog from low level moisture pushing north
through eastern Kansas which could hamper the warm up for some
areas, more likely east of US Highway 281. Its early, but the
NAM, ECMWF and today`s RRFS to a lesser degree all indicate some
possible impact on temperatures. Winds are lighter both days,
more southerly Christmas Eve, though more westerly (potentially)
on Christmas Day. The trouble with any amount of low clouds or
morning fog this time of year is the low sun angle, and the
difficulty or inability to dissipate the low level moisture.
Even if it does evaporate over a few hours, the residual
moisture can still hamper an anticipated warm up. Ensembles have
started to trend slightly cooler both days (few degrees),
though still very mild and potentially record breaking. However,
the forecast does reflect this slightly cooler trend by a couple
degrees and is something to watch. Right now, it doesn`t look
like all of south central Nebraska and north central Kansas
would be impacted by any clouds/fog that develop, but if it
does happen, we could have a large temperature spread from west-
to-east not currently reflected in the forecast. And to
reiterate, its early, so trends of low clouds/fog will fluctuate
and adjust with time, as will the resultant forecast. It is
possible models could be overstating moisture return, or the
very dry ground/ambient conditions could also negate some of the
moisture influence.

The "cooler but still mild for December trend" is still on
track for next weekend after a cold front passes. One of the
more interesting things is, if the low clouds/fog hold down
temperatures Christmas Day, we could actually be warmer Friday
after the front due to a more favorable westerly flow and full
sunshine. This is also point worth watching. Eventually, cold
air will gradually deepen through the weekend with each day
cooler than the previous. Can`t totally rule some very light
precipitation but ensembles continue to indicate the probability
of total precipitation of 0.10" through Monday the 29th at less
than 20%, so the forecast remains officially dry.

After the post Christmas cool down, ensembles and operational model
runs both indicate a warm up to end the year (30th/31st) before
colder and slightly more unsettled weather could influence the area
the first few days of the New Year.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 544 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
This is an extremely-high-confidence period regarding VFR
ceiling/visibility, with only varying degrees of passing high
level cirrus mainly near-to-above 20K feet. Even winds will be
seasonably-light, with sustained speeds largely under 12KT
throughout.

- Wind details:
Low level wind shear (LLWS) concerns from earlier this morning
are now ending as the axis of strong winds within the lowest few
thousand feet AGL departs off to the east. As a result, the
entire period should feature seasonably "tame" winds, with
sustained speeds commonly at-or-below 11KT and any sporadic
slightly higher gusts (most favored 16-23Z) mostly at-or-below
15KT. However, there will be some directional shifts...starting
off south-southwesterly today...then turning more westerly this
evening and eventually northerly late tonight/early Tues AM
behind a weak cold front.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 246 AM CST Mon Dec 2s 2025

- REGARDING POSSIBLE RECORD WARM TEMPS DEC 24-26:
Although near-record to POSSIBLY record-warmth is still forecast
for Dec. 24-26 (both high temps and warm low/minimum temps),
particularly high temps for Dec. 24-25 have gradually trended
slightly cooler (more "into question" regarding record
potential), given at least the possibility that shallow low
clouds and/or light winds/limited mixing keeping things at least
slightly cooler than earlier/previous forecasts.

At least for now though, below is where our latest forecast vs.
existing records stand for Grand Island and Hastings airports,
the two NWS-maintained sites for which we issue official Record
Event Reports (RERGRI/RERHSI). Please note that * indicates
that our forecast would tie or break an existing record:


RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES               | Latest Forecast

Grand Island, NE (GRI)

December 24: 64 in 2021                | Forecast: 60
December 25: 62 in 1999,1963,1922      | Forecast: 62*
December 26: 64 in 2005                | Forecast: 61
---------------

Hastings, NE (HSI)

December 24: 66 in 1933                | Forecast: 59
December 25: 62 in 1999,1950           | Forecast: 63*
December 26: 65 in 2005                | Forecast: 61

_________________________________________________________

RECORD WARM LOW/MINIMUM TEMPERATURES   | Latest Forecast

Grand Island, NE (GRI)

December 24: 34 in 1936                | Forecast: 32
December 25: 34 in 1959                | Forecast: 35*
December 26: 38 in 1931                | Forecast: 36
---------------

Hastings, NE (HSI)

December 24: 33 in 2005,1955           | Forecast: 33*
December 25: 34 in 1922                | Forecast: 37*
December 26: 38 in 1959                | Forecast: 36

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Pfannkuch
DISCUSSION...Moritz
AVIATION...Pfannkuch
CLIMATE...Pfannkuch