Lexington, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

244
FXUS63 KGID 022041
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
341 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- 15-25% chance this evening of a few brief and isolated showers
mainly along and just north of the state line.

- A ~36 hour period of off-and-on mainly showers start Thursday
afternoon, lasting as late as Saturday morning.

- Generally 0.25-0.5" of precipitation with peak amount up to 0.75-
1" (greatest accumulations west) will fall ahead of Saturday.

- Temperatures descending towards the 40s by Saturday and will
  gradually rise back to the 70s by midweek next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Tonight...

A majority of the area should remain precip free tonight and seeing
only only a couple of clouds remaining on the backside yesterday`s
disturbance. Strong southwesterly flow aloft retains with a now
stationary upper-level jet holding over southeastern Nebraska. A few
brief light showers to sprinkles can`t be completely ruled out late
this evening/tonight for mainly areas along and just north of the
KS/NE state line. A few of the finer resolution models resolve a few
brief and isolated showers popping up along this boundary. The best
chances (up to 15-25%) generally lie towards the western areas.

At the surface, gusty northwest winds, presently gusting near 15-25
mph, will soon pump the breaks, backing off to only a light 5-10mph
wind by this evening. Rising pressure behind yesterday`s surface low
will gradually turn winds clockwise overnight, eventually settling
towards the east Thursday. Lows tonight will run around 10-15
degrees cooler from the previous night, down to the mid 20s to upper
30s.

Thursday through Saturday...

We remain under an amplified pattern as a strengthening ridge to our
east and a deepening mid-to-upper level low to our west allows for
the strong southwest flow aloft to retain. An embedded and faint
shortwave trough will draw up some scattered showers across the
Central Plains with a few embedded thunderstorms possible. The
initial wave is expected to arrive Thursday afternoon, beginning a
~36 hour period of off-and-on precipitation chances lasting through
Saturday morning for the area.

The greatest uncertainty lies with precipitation amounts, as modeled
trends have nudged the bulk of the heaviest showers now west of the
area. The track of the precipitation center now looks to just barely
pass up and around the area. Most places can expect to receive at
least 0.25 to 0.5 inches of precip within the day and a half period.
Places in our western half (closer to the QPF maxima) may receive up
to an 0.75-1 inches. Light snow/flurries will be possible at the
tail end of these showers Friday night into Saturday morning.

Otherwise, temperatures through Saturday are expected to continue to
descend towards the 40s as the longwave trough out west slowly passes
overhead. The coldest day within the next 7 days will likely fall
Saturday as highs are expected to hug the 40s. A compressing surface
pressure gradient Saturday behind a passing cold front should
activate 20-25mph northerly winds, gusting as high as 40 MPH through
the afternoon.

Sunday & Beyond...

The remainder of the extended forecast period remains dry (PoPs
<15%) with a gradual warmup up on track for early next week. An
extended period of weak northerly winds and colder air aloft
influenced by the upper-level trough, will allow some cooler air to
seep down over the weekend. This will limit the chances for a quick
rebound in temperatures until at least Tuesday. The leading
long range scenario points towards a ridging pattern taking over the
end of next week that could transpire a warmup and generally keep
things pretty quiet.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

MVFR conditions are expected to end soon for both terminals (by
21z). Clouds will continue to scatter out through the remainder
of the day. Ceilings after 21z should remain VFR through the
rest of the TAF period.

Winds start off strong and out of the northwest between 10-20kt
with occasional gusts as high as 30-35kt. These gusts should
drop off fairly quickly this afternoon, returning to a light
5-10kt wind by the late evening hours. Rising pressure
overnight will allow the light winds to slowly turn clockwise
towards an easterly direction for Thursday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stump
AVIATION...Stump