Kearney, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

055
FXUS63 KGID 160428
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1128 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few (potentially severe) storms will be possible late this
afternoon through early evening, mainly along the Hwy 81  corridor.
The main hazards will be hail up to the side of   ping pong balls
and thunderstorm wind gusts near 60 MPH.

- Generally greater coverage of strong to severe storms will  come
Saturday evening into the overnight and Sunday afternoon  and
evening. Baseball size hail and damaging thunderstorm wind  gusts up
to 75 MPH may be possible within the strongest  storms. A few
tornadoes will also be possible, esp. Sunday.

- The severe threat may continue into Monday as the large scale
storm system has trended slower. The greatest threat will  favor the
eastern half of the forecast area, but specific  timing and threat
remains uncertain.

- Near-critical to critical fire weather concerns may return for
  a southwest portion of the area Sunday given strong S winds
  blowing near 20-30 MPH and gusting as high as 35-45 MPH.

- Temperatures ahead of a cold frontal passage early next week  will
keep highs in the mid 80s and 90s (through Sunday) before
temporarily dropping down to the 60s to 70s by Tuesday. A steady
increase in highs will likely follow through the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 427 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

This evening-overnight: No major changes in the latest thinking
regarding severe weather potential. Still appears the main
threat area will focus in the far E/SE portions of the forecast
area...along and ahead of a weak boundary. There`s not a lot of
temperature differences on either side, and winds are weak such
that convergence isn`t very strong either. Main differentiators
is moisture, with dew points in the mid 50s in places like
Hebron vs. lower 30s in the Tri-Cities. It got quite warm/hot
out there today, so areas that do have decent low level moisture
have moderate instability in the 1000-2000 J/kg range amidst
steep mid level lapse rates over 8 C/km. Wind shear is modest,
but sufficient, for organized deep convection with latest SPC
mesoA page indicating 30-40kt of effective deep layer shear,
decreasing with SW extent. Forecast soundings and sfc T/Td
spreads >30 degrees suggest inverted-V profiles/elevated bases
and wind gusts as the primary severe threat. The steep mid level
lapse rates and modest shear also support a severe hail threat,
particularly in the initial cores. Expect fairly quiet
conditions between midnight through early afternoon Saturday.

Saturday PM: The next round of potential severe weather will
come as early as late Saturday afternoon, but more likely during
the evening into early overnight hours. A deepening upper trough
over the W CONUS will begin to exert it`s influence by later in
the day in the form of modest height falls and difluent and
divergent upper level flow. Latest CAMs appear to be converging
on a general solution where today`s weak boundary stalls out,
then lifts northward as a warm front during the afternoon,
reaching central Nebraska by 00Z Sunday. Most likely area for
convective initiation will favor areas to our west along the
High Plains within a broad swath of Erly upslope flow and closer
to the arriving height falls. This activity will likely congeal
into one or two MCSs that roll E/NE during the late evening and
overnight, sustained by a strong LLJ increasing to 50-60kt by
03Z. Moderate to strong instability (MLCAPE as high as 2000-3000
J/kg), strong effective deep layer shear (40-50kt) - including
strong upper level storm-relative flow/venting - and very steep
low to mid level lapse rates all suggest potential for upper-
end type hail and damaging wind. In fact, wind-driven large hail
could be a concern. Will also need to watch the southern end of
an expected MCS or any embedded supercells, esp ones that
interact with the warm front, for a few tornadoes. This would be
most concerning in the 00-03Z time frame as LCLs lower and low
level SRH ramps up with the aforementioned LLJ.

The above scenario is the one that appears to be most probable
at this time (MCS rolling off the High Plains later in the day
with primarily a hail/wind threat), but isolated late afternoon
CI eastward into our area along the warm front is also
plausible...a la the 18Z HRRR. This scenario is highly
conditional due to some capping and weaker forcing, but
potentially high- impact, if it were to pan out. This scenario
would increase the high- end hail threat (up to around baseball
size) and also probably the tornado threat. Want to see more CAM
consistency before ramping up this messaging.

Sunday: appears any convection from Saturday night will have
shifted N/NE of the area by sunrise Sunday AM...setting the
stage for strong destabilization of a broadening warm sector. In
general, appears there will be most of the ingredients necessary
for a higher-end severe weather threat, including strong
tornadoes...but as always, the details matter and are still
murky this far out. With the lack of AM convection, don`t think
instability will be an issue, and the arrival time of stronger
upper level forcing appears to be well-timed towards the peak
heating hours. So even through mid level temps will be quite
warm (14C+) early in the day...some cooling/height falls
towards 00Z Mon along with strong destabilization should be
enough to support robust CI. Once storms form, should have
most/all of the ingredients in place for significant severe
weather...with the main uncertainty lying in the location of a
likely triple point (closer to Lexington or closer to Tri-
Cities) and QUALITY of boundary layer moisture. Some models
(e.g. 12Z EC) really mix the BL and lowers Tds into the
50s...whereas the NAM shields the BL a bit more and maintains
mid to upper 60s Tds through the late afternoon. RRFS is
somewhat in between. Thus...this casts some uncertainty on
mainly the tornado threat...at least early on in the convective
cycle. Threat could increase in time - even per the 12Z EC -
with gradual lowering of LCLs and increasing low level shear.
Not sure what convective mode would be by then, though. Still
plenty of time to hash out those details.

System as a whole has trended slower...which brings more of our
area into play for another round of significant severe weather
potential on Monday. This looks to be our last day (for at least
a few days) of severe weather threat as the upper trough finally
moves through Monday night. Haven`t looked into details of
Monday and beyond very much today since there`s plenty of
impactful weather in the short term.

One last thing...still monitoring the potential for a wedge of
critical fire weather conditions to punch into far W/SW zones
behind the dry line Sunday afternoon. Phillips down into Rooks
County would be most at risk, even if they see rain Saturday
night, as much of the fine (1hr) fuels are still susceptible to
large fire growth.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1128 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR conditions for the first 12 to 15 hours will give way to
a developing showers and thunderstorm risk in the last part
of the forecast. Initially, winds have turned northeast behind
a cold front and maintained around 12 kts. This should continue
overnight and Saturday morning though windspeeds should taper
off a bit as pressure rises fade. We expect a mostly clear sky
overnight but increasing mid/high clouds thorugh the midday
hours at both airports on Saturday. The main story later
Saturday will be developing showers and thunderstorms in the
late afternoon & evening. Increasing low level moisture and
advancing will spell fairly widespread coverage of showers and
storms after 3-4 pm and continue through the evenings. Look for
occasionally MVFR ceilings as more steady preciptiation sets up.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/Moritz