Holdrege, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

594
FXUS63 KGLD 222336
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
436 PM MST Sun Feb 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend over the next few days; 70s look to return
  Tuesday.

- Breezy to gusty conditions look to return Wednesday behind a
  cold front. This could lead to blowing dust or precipitation.

- Increased concern for fire weather conditions Tuesday and
  Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1212 PM MST Sun Feb 22 2026

Today, a ridge will be in place over the Great Basin, extending it`s
shield over the the Tri-State area. The ridge remains in place until
Tuesday. This will promote mild and warming conditions through this
timeframe. High temperatures today will be in the 40s and by
Tuesday, into the 70s. Low temperatures will also see significant
warming. Temperatures tonight are forecast to drop into the low
teens, but Tuesday night lows look to be in the 30s.

Tuesday, with temperatures being so warm, RH values are forecast to
drop into the teens across the Tri-State area. NBM currently shows
gusts topping out around 20-22 kts in northern Yuma county. However,
GFS, NAM, ECMWF, and CMC-NH are all showing an 850 mb trough pushing
over the eastern CWA creating an afternoon northwesterly LLJ. The
magnitude of this LLJ is still a major question, as the
aforementioned models show anywhere from 25-50 kts. Since we`re
expecting to be so warm and these winds will be following a mild
cold front, we should expect a decent portion of these winds to mix
to the surface. Confidence in briefly critical fire weather
conditions Tuesday afternoon sits at around 25% with confidence in
Red Flag conditions being about 20%.

Overnight Tuesday, an 850 mb high looks to move over the CWA. This
could help cool temperatures off into the upper 20s, slightly cooler
than what the NBM currently shows.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1212 PM MST Sun Feb 22 2026

Wednesday is when the ridge pattern looks to break as our next upper-
level low pushes into the High Plains. The timing of this trough is
a bit of a question, as it could enter the region between Wednesday
afternoon and Wednesday night. Since guidance is heavily favoring a
FROPA after prime day-time heat, temperature ranges have notable
decreased. Highs are expected to be in the 70s, with the
southeastern CWA potentially hitting 80.

The GFS, CMC-NH, and ECMWF all show a strong, windy cold front for
Wednesday. Winds at 850 mb behind the front could range anywhere
from 30-45 kts. GFS, NAM, and CMC-NH also show 0-2 km lapse rates
ahead/with the front in the 8.5-10 C/km. Additionally, 2-2.5 km
lapse rates behind the front look to largely remain under 6 C/km.
This leads to some concern for blowing dust, including a haboob, as
the front pushes through. However, 12Z runs of these models are
coming into more agreement that the front will enter the CWA around
22-0Z from the northwest. This late passage could allow the 0-2 km
lapse rates to relax as the sun goes down, reducing the potential
for blowing dust. Confidence for blowing dust reducing visibility to
less than 1 mile is about 20%.

Additionally, depending on the amount of moisture we have available
in the column as the front comes through, we could see some
thunderstorms. Moisture is the main component missing as mid level
lapse rates and Theata-E profiles support instability. Any storms
would occur around 0-3Z, but would transition to stratiform between
3-12Z Thursday morning. Very little QPF is expected with any
precipitation that occurs.

After this low, we look to remain in northwesterly flow aloft, which
typically provides an unsettled pattern for us. Temperatures will be
slightly cooler Thursday, only warming into the low to mid 60s as
northerly flow persists. Thursday night into Friday, a brief ridge
moves in, likely warming temperatures back to upper 60s to low 70s,
depending on the timing of a cold front. Saturday looks similar to
Thursday, cooler behind the front.

Thanks to no moisture advection, precipitation is unlikely after
Thursday morning and RH values are forecast to drop into the teens.
This will bring back the fire weather threat as wind gusts could
easily be over the 25 kts range, especially Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 425 PM MST Sun Feb 22 2026

VFR conditions will prevail over next 24 hours, with only
passing high clouds expected. Winds will quickly become light
and variable after sunset and remain light until after 16z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...JRM