Holdrege, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

614
FXUS63 KGLD 021742
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1142 AM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unsettled weather pattern Thursday through Saturday with high
  chances for precipitation (rain and snow) and below normal
  temperatures.

- Very low chance (~10%) for 2-3 inches of snow around the Tri-
  State border area tomorrow afternoon.

- About a 40% chance blowing snow will impact travel Saturday
  morning.

- Dry, warming trend expected to start Sunday and last into at
  least the middle of next workweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1134 AM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Current observations show an upper trough center roughly over
Southern Nevada with a shortwave trough moving northeast through the
Plains. At the surface, the low pressure system that moved through
the area yesterday is moving through Iowa to the northeast with the
pressure gradient weakening as it move further away. For the
remainder of today, winds should slowly lower from southwest to
northeast with gusts decreasing from 35-40 mph down to around 20 mph
later in the afternoon. Temperatures are still expected to warm into
the 50s and low 60s with mostly sunny skies until later in the
afternoon. 700-500mb moisture is then forecast to move through the
area and increase cloud cover and maybe allow for a few sprinkles or
very light showers.

Tonight, temperatures are forecast to drop into the upper 20s and
30s as cloud cover clears and winds become mostly calm in the weaker
pressure gradient. Temperatures may be higher than forecast if the
southerly low level flow kicks in a bit faster and brings in higher
dewpoints. Lows would then likely be in the 30s.

Tomorrow begins another round of active weather as another shortwave
moves through the larger trough and brings a low pressure system
through the area from the south later in the day. This is forecast
to bring plenty of lift and moisture into the area as the day goes
on. Skies are forecast to be mostly cloudy to cloudy which will help
keep temperatures in the 30s and 40s along with precipitation that
falls. Rain is forecast to begin developing during the morning
hours, but be more widespread by the afternoon hour as the northern
part of the surface low nears the area. Liquid amounts remain
forecast around 0.10 to 0.50 inches for the entire day.

There are two low chance hazards to keep an eye out for. The first
is the possibility for snow. If temperatures do manage to cool into
the twenties tonight (mainly around Eastern Colorado) and the low
moves in quickly enough during the morning, temperatures may not be
able to warm much above freezing with dewpoints also in the upper
twenties. This could allow for a rate driven change into snow.
Though it would likely be a wet snow, the forecast liquid amounts
could allow for as much as 3 inches during the day for locales
around the Tri-State border. Similar to recent events, the snow
would likely melt quickly and have difficulty sticking to roadways.
The other potential hazard favors locales along and south of I-70.
Thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon hour, especially if
the low moves close enough that there could be some dry air that
gives breaks in the clouds and allows daytime heating to add some
instability. With the effective and low level shear forecast to be
around 40 and 20 kts respectively, there is the possibility for a
stronger storm or two to develop that could produce some small hail.
The actual hazard is that the low ceilings and potential low level
shear could actually allow for a quick tornado, especially if a low
level convergence zone can develop and form a boundary in the warmer
sector. Overall, the chances are fairly low for hazardous weather,
but it will be worth watching to see how this low advances. Snow
greater than 2" has a 10% chance, tornado chance is around 1-2%.

Tomorrow night, the low is forecast to become a bit more elongated
and weaker which should lower the forcing available for
precipitation. Still, chances for rain and snow will continue
through the night, but likely with less accumulation. Temperatures
are forecast to generally be in the 30s and 40s with the moist air
keeping dewpoints higher and the cloud cover inhibiting radiational
cooling.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 152 AM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

This weekend will see persistent precipitation before we dry
out for most of the next workweek.

Friday morning, we will start off with a deep trough extending
from the west Hudson Bay down to northern Baja California. This
trough will very slowly move east with the 250 mb trough axis
moving over the CWA around 6Z Sunday. This will put the High
Plains, especially the GLD CWA, under a fairly turbulent,
southwesterly flow. Down at 850 mb, an inverted trough will form
a large scale convergence zone extending from the TX/NM border
northward up through North Dakota. Over the weekend, the
convergence zone will rotate clockwise, pivoting around the
Texas Panhandle. On the eastern side, there will be substantial
moisture being funneled into the Great Plains from the Gulf via
a 30-50 kts LLJ driven by a high pressure system off the east
coast and a low over western Texas, the one driving the trough.
Over the northern Rockies, a high pressure system will descend
out of the mountains to the east, pushing cold air into the
convergence zone. As mentioned before, this system will be
moving slowly, meaning the CWA will have a very good chance of
precipitation between 12Z Friday and Saturday afternoon/evening.

We can expect the precipitation to start off as rain, and some
occasional rumbles of thunder are possible, but no severe storms
are expected. Friday afternoon into the evening hours, as the
northerly air pushes in and we lose our diurnal heating,
temperatures will likely drop into the low to mid 20s overnight,
allowing the P-type to become snow. Unfortunately, northerly
winds look to increase in intensity and 20-30 kts gusts are
forecast across the area. There is a ~40% chance winds will gust
up to 40-45 kts Saturday morning as a northerly 850 mb LLJ of
that magnitude moves into the CWA and may mix down these more
intense winds. There is about a 40-50% chance blowing snow will
impact travel and reduce visibilities down to around a mile. We
cannot rule out blizzard-like conditions, but there is not a
signal for strong forcing, meaning snowfall rates will be light
to moderate. Currently, models are highlighting locations along
and west of KS HWY 25 and south of U.S. HWY 36 to be the prime
location for impactful blowing snow between midnight and noon
Saturday morning. If this area were to expand, it would likely
expand northward and encompass Yuma county.

In the afternoon Saturday, as the inverted trough continues to
push off to the southeast out of the area, PoPs gradually
dwindle, completely exiting the area around midnight Sunday
morning. Due to the northerly winds and persistent cloud cover,
especially in the western CWA, temperatures look to remain
fairly cool, likely in the mid 30s to low 40s Saturday. If the
clouds clear out quicker and the winds weaken, temperatures
could be 5-8 degrees warmer than current predicted.

As for snow totals, there is a pretty big spread, especially in
the western CWA where the temperatures will cool the quickest.
25-75 NBM is showing a 0-7 inch spread around Burlington, CO. On
a positive note, there`s less than a 10% chance of seeing more
than 9 inches of snow, and there`s about an 80% chance for most,
if not all, of the CWA to see at least 0.2 inches of QPF!

Sunday, we will finally see the upper-level trough axis moving
past the area as a ridge builds in from the west. This will
start a dry, warming trend through the rest of the long-term. By
Tuesday or Wednesday, we could be seeing temperatures warming
back into the 70s. Low temperatures will follow a similar trend;
Monday night, will cool to around freezing, but the following
two nights look to remain above freezing. Climatologically
speaking, we are still likely to see freezing temperatures
return over the next few weeks as out average last freeze dates
are around the start of May.

List of acronyms
NBM - National Blend of Models
PoP - Probability Of Precipitation
LLJ - Low Level Jet
QPF - Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
P-type - Precipitation type
mb - Millibar
kts - Knots
Z - Zulu time (UTC)
CWA - County Warning Area
GLD - Goodland

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1134 AM MDT Wed Apr 2 2025

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are expected for most of the
period, with ceiling beginning to lower tomorrow morning after
12Z as rain begins moving into the area. For the remainder of
this afternoon and evening, winds are forecast to slowly lower
from around 20-25kts from the northwest, to around 5-10kts from
the northeast in the evening and overnight hours. This evening,
there is a chance for some virga and very light showers between
21-06Z, mainly favoring KMCK. If the showers did develop, they
would likely be isolated and brief. Otherwise, as alluded to at
the beginning, main concern is for lowering ceilings and
rain/thunderstorms to develop after 12Z tomorrow. Currently, the
forecast has the precipitation moving in generally after 16-17Z,
but ceilings could begin to lower early in the morning. Ceilings
would likely drop to around 1000ft, less if heavy precipitation
falls.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...CA
AVIATION...KAK