Holdrege, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

109
FXUS63 KGLD 222302
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
402 PM MST Mon Dec 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above average temperatures and dry conditions will
  persist through the end of the week.

- Near record to record high temperatures are possible on
  Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1246 PM MST Mon Dec 22 2025

Latest upper air analysis shows a ridge over Mexico extending
into the Southern Plains. Zonal flow was in place over the
Central Plains north of the ridge. Cloud cover was much less
than yesterday due to dry air overhead.

A very pleasant day is expected for the rest of today.

Tonight warm air advection will continue, causing lows to be
quite warm. Lows will be near record values for the warmest low
for many sites. A pre-frontal trough will move through tonight
causing the westerly winds to turn to the northwest.

Tuesday morning a backdoor cold front will move in during the
morning. This will cause winds to turn to the south behind the
front. Cold air advection will cause highs to be cooler than
today, but still roughly 20 degrees above normal. Due to very
large dew point depressions in place, am not expecting anything
more than some high clouds with the frontal passage.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1246 PM MST Mon Dec 22 2025

The main focus for this part of the forecast is the record
temperature potential for Wednesday and Thursday.

Wednesday the upper level ridge remains in place over the
Plains. Westerly winds will aid in warm air advection. This is a
similar wind direction that has occurred when temperatures have
warmed more than expected earlier this month. As such,
confidence is high that highs will be around three degrees
warmer than forecast. Relative humidity will fall to less than
20% for the western two thirds of the forecast area, possibly
more with warmer highs. However the winds will be similar to
today; not high enough to warrant a concern for fire weather
conditions.

Thursday and Friday the upper level flow becomes more zonal
over the Plains as a long wave trough over Canada flattens the
ridge out further, pushing it south. A backdoor cold front may
move into the forecast area from the northeast Thursday. Models
are in better agreement with this than what was seen yesterday.
This lowers confidence that highs will be in the upper 70s. The
current forecast for highs on Thursday looks reasonable based on
the probabilities of highs exceeding 70F. No precipitation is
expected due to the dry environment. Friday highs will be cooler
but still be roughly 20 degrees above normal.

Saturday onward is when models differ with the weather pattern.
The main difference is regarding the eastward progression of
the closed low that moves onshore. More models are coming more
agreement that the closed low will progress more to the east
instead of southeast. The difference begins to show up with what
the models do with the trough once it moves onshore: does it
continue east and become absorbed in the long wave trough over
the eastern half of the CONUS, or does it stall over the West
Coast and deepen before moving east sometime early next week.
(The mean of the GEFS agrees with the closed low stalling.)
There are some models that have a solution in the middle of the
two. The AI GFS has a closed low moving east across the CONUS
through the weekend. This closed low will be the source for wide
spread precipitation wherever it tracks, unless it becomes
absorbed in the longwave trough. Ironically models are in better
agreement with the weather pattern early next week (northwest
flow with a longwave trough over the Eastern CONUS) than they
are with the weather pattern this weekend. What can be gleaned
from this tangled mess of model data is that a pattern change
and cooler temperatures are coming at some point after Christmas
with the breakdown of the ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 400 PM MST Mon Dec 22 2025

GLD: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. Ceilings,
if any, will be confined to cirrus above 20,000 ft AGL. Light
and variable winds this evening and overnight will shift to the
SE-SSE and increase to ~13-17 knots during the late morning
(~18Z Tue) and persist through the afternoon. Winds will veer to
the SSE-S and decrease to ~8-12 knots shortly before sunset
(~23Z Tue).. near the end of the 00Z TAF period.

MCK: VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. Ceilings,
if any, will be confined to cirrus above 20,000 ft AGL. Light
and variable winds this evening and overnight will shift to the
ESE-SE and increase to ~10-14 knots during the late morning to
early afternoon (~18Z Tue) and persist through the remainder of
the 00Z TAF period.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 1206 AM MST Mon Dec 22 2025

Well above average temperatures will persist through the
remainder of the week. Some locations may approach monthly
(December) record highs. For reference, average highs this time
of year are ~40F.

==============================
Record Highs for December 24
==============================
Burlington.........79 in 1955
Goodland...........77 in 1955
McCook.............74 in 1964
Hill City..........67 in 2021

==============================
Record Highs for December 25
==============================
Burlington.........67 in 1929
Goodland...........74 in 1950
McCook.............70 in 1929
Hill City..........76 in 1950

==============================
Monthly (Dec) Record Highs
==============================
Burlington.........81 in 1939
Goodland...........83 in 1964
McCook.............81 in 1964
Hill City..........83 in 1964

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...Vincent
CLIMATE...Trigg