Holdrege, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

877
FXUS63 KGLD 221106
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
406 AM MST Sun Dec 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm today with highs in the 60`s. Cooler and more seasonable
  start to Christmas Week. Dry conditions forecast for the next
  3 days.

- Continued chances for precipitation Christmas night. May have
  another low chance for precipitation at the end of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 123 AM MST Sun Dec 22 2024

Another warm day is forecast for the Tri-State area with highs
forecast to warm into the 60`s, maybe even the upper 60`s. A
shortwave trough is forecast to move through the Northern Plains
today and bring a broad area of low pressure and a front
through the area. This is forecast to shift the winds to out of
the northwest, but that`s about the extent of the impacts with
weak forcing and relatively dry air preventing further changes
in conditions. Winds may gust to 20-35 mph for counties along
the Nebraska border if the center of the lower pressure can
shift southeast fast enough. This evening and into tonight, the
axis of the shortwave is forecast to swing near the area and
bring some mid to high level moisture and cloud cover over the
area. The cloud cover should help keep temperatures up around 30
degrees, even with the forecasted light winds.

For the beginning of Christmas week, a pseudo zonal/northwest
flow upper pattern is forecast over the High Plains as a weak
trough tries to develop ahead of a ridge over the Rockies. With
these waves, mid to high level moisture is forecast to continue
to advect into the area from the west/northwest. This should
increase cloud cover over the area with the main uncertainty
being how persistent the cloud cover will be. So in the wake of
the front on Sunday, zonal pattern aloft, and mix of cloud cover
and sunshine, dry but more seasonable conditions are forecast
both day with highs in the 50`s and lows in the 20`s. Monday
could be a bit cooler during the day if the cloud cover is more
persistent than forecast, while Tuesday could be a bit warmer if
the edge of the ridge over the Rockies shifts east a little
faster. With the weak flow aloft, winds should be fairly light
both days with speeds around 5 to 15 mph.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 359 AM MST Sun Dec 22 2024

Long range guidance continues to indicate that a pronounced
ridge /block/ will remain in place over central Canada as
periodic shortwave energy moving ashore the PAC NW (on the
southern and eastern periphery of a large cyclonic gyre/vortex
in the northern Pacific) erodes.. and ultimately supplants.. the
western CONUS ridge, resulting in a more progressive pattern
over the CONUS (beneath the ridge in central Canada). With [1] a
pronounced, persistent ridge at higher latitudes (central
Canada) acting as a blockade against Arctic airmasses and [2] a
progressive pattern with serial/periodic shortwaves at lower
latitudes in the central CONUS (a pattern that spatiotemporally
limits warm advection in the immediate lee of the Rockies).. an
atypically homogenous airmass (850 mb temperatures ranging from
+2 to +6C) is expected over the Central-Northern Plains for
most or all of the extended period.

Above normal temperatures are likely. While precipitation could
accompany periodic waves progressing east across the Rockies
and Central Plains on (1) Wed night-Thu and (2) Fri-Fri night..
expect little, if any(*), potential for winter weather.

(*) In the absence of an Arctic airmass, thermal profiles would
be warm enough to preclude wintry precipitation in almost all
scenarios this week. Almost, all.. so, what`s the exception?
There is -one- specific/unique scenario that could produce
hazardous winter weather, a scenario in which prolonged heavy
precipitation `melts-out` above freezing thermal profiles,
fostering a rate-driven transition from rain to heavy wet snow.
What would it take for that to happen? What would that look
like? -- A slow moving, intensifying mid-latitude cyclone. The
Tri-State area would *have* to be in the deformation band /on
the northwest periphery/ of a [1] slow moving, [2] intensifying
mid-latitude cyclone. While technically possible, such specific
circumstances are far, -far- less probable than other outcomes.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 403 AM MST Sun Dec 22 2024

For KGLD & KMCK... VFR conditions are forecast through the
period. Through the daytime hours, there could be high level
clouds moving across the area, but nothing forecast below
15000ft. Winds near the surface are forecast to be from the west
to start the day and then veer to out of the northwest around
16-19Z as a weak front moves through the area. KMCK has a chance
to see a few gusts around 15-20 kts between 17-23Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...KAK