Holdrege, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

328
FXUS63 KGLD 090358
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
958 PM MDT Tue Oct 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Smoke emanating from wildfires in Idaho and Wyoming will
  impact portions of the area today, mainly in eastern CO and
  adjacent KS border counties where visibility may occasionally
  be reduced to ~5 miles and air quality may be slightly
  degraded, at times.

- Dry conditions and above average temperatures will persist
  through the duration of the work week.

- Near-average temperatures will return in the wake of a dry
  cold frontal passage this weekend. Critical fire weather
  conditions may accompany the frontal passage on Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 654 PM MDT Tue Oct 8 2024

The overall forecast remains on track. Watching some weak mid
level moisture moving towards the area from the mountains but
think that this will be mainly virga or at best some sprinkles
across E Colorado overnight due to dew points in the 20s. Haze
and some smoke looks to return tomorrow so have added in haze to
the forecast as the near surface smoke models don`t currently
appear as favorable for reductions in visibility; although the
noticeable haze should continue for at least one more day.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 145 PM MDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Synoptic Overview: A high-latitude (40-70N) omega block, the
center (ridge) of which extends northward from the Northern
Plains to Hudson Bay, will remain the dominant synoptic feature
over North America in this period. Meanwhile, at lower latitudes
(25-35N), a southern stream jet.. presently situated along the
southern Pacific Coast and Desert Southwest.. will strengthen
and extend eastward across the Southern Plains (tonight) and
Deep South/Gulf Coast (Wed-Thu).

Tonight: Cyclonic shear vorticity on the northern periphery of
a strengthening -- and increasingly west-east oriented --
southern stream jet over the Desert Southwest and Southern
Plains may aid in the development of upper level cloud cover
over portions of southwest/west Kansas (south of I-70) tonight
and Wednesday morning -- when the aforementioned jet will be in
closest proximity to the region. Cirrus, if thick/opaque and
persistent.. may have a mild affect on temperature trends in
southern portions of the area. Either way, expect overnight lows
a few degrees warmer than last night.. in the 40s.

Wed-Fri: The Central Plains will be well-separated from both
(northern and southern stream) branches of the jet in this
period. Expect mostly clear skies, dry conditions and a
continued warming trend.. with predominantly light and variable
winds.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM MDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Concise: Still dry, but.. cooler.

Verbose: Operational runs of the GFS/ECMWF suggest that a
split-flow synoptic regime will develop/evolve along the Pacific
Coast this weekend -- as a closed low becomes cut- off/trapped
beneath an amplifying ridge over western North America. In such
a regime, confluent flow aloft is often present (sometimes
anchored) over the northern Rockies and/or Northern Plains..
where strong synoptic subsidence and surface pressure rises tend
to promote/facilitate the southward transport of Canadian
airmasses into the continental US. In such a pattern, one would
expect cooler/colder temperatures over the eastern CONUS (east
of the Continental Divide), the onset of which is typically
characterized by an abrupt transition -- in the form of a
pronounced cold frontal passage. Long range guidance presently
indicates that said transition will occur sometime Sat-Sat
night. Critical fire weather conditions are certainly possible
in assoc/w the frontal passage. Whether or not -- and, if so,
to what extent/magnitude -- critical fire weather conditions
are present will highly depend upon the timing of the front
(among other factors) -- details which cannot be confidently
assessed at this range.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 954 PM MDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Mainly clear skies with the exception of some mid level clouds
across east Colorado in association with a weak surface low and
perhaps some isolated areas of haze are forecast for the
night. SSE winds are forecast as well with slightly breezier
around 11-12 knots at KGLD due to the proximity of the surface
low. Winds will become more northerly in wake of the low
Wednesday but will remain light and eventually variable by
sunset Wednesday. Still continue to monitor for some smoke/haze
across the area Wednesday from fires in Wyoming and Idaho but
the signal does appear as strong as the past couple nights so
will refrain from inputting into this TAF.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Trigg
SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Vincent
AVIATION...Trigg