Grand Island, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

559
FXUS63 KGID 030034
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
634 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A couple disturbances will bring some bouts of light wintry
  mix over the next 48 hours, but impacts should be minimal due
  to light nature and marginal temperatures.

- Above to well-above normal temperatures are favored for the
  second half of the week and through the weekend.

- Forecast is dry beyond Wednesday, and fire weather concerns
  appear limited, as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 405 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Today has been seasonably mild, as expected, under copious high
levels clouds. Far W portions of the area have actually warmed
into the low to mid 50s behind a sfc trough that swung winds
more westerly and resulted in better mixing. Quiet conditions
will persist through the evening hours.

A "clipper" system - currently seen in water vapor and regional
radar mosaic imagery over the Dakotas - will quickly shift SE
tonight. The brunt of the forcing with this wave will remain
along and esp. E of the MO River Valley, but could get just
enough moisture/lift to squeeze out some flurries and/or light
snow showers over our far NE after midnight. Some of the latest
hi-res guidance shows some simulated reflectivity lingering
along Hwy 81 corridor through late morning. Not expecting much
for impacts, if any, given off and on nature of only light snow.
To the point, 12Z EPS probabilities were <10% for even a
hundredth (0.01") of QPF.

Another quick-moving wave looks to impact the region beginning
late Tuesday afternoon or early evening and linger through the
overnight. This wave looks to track further W and have a bit
more moisture to work with compared to the first wave. However,
it will also be a bit warmer (esp. early in the event Tue eve)
such that some of the precip will likely fall as mostly liquid.
Forecast soundings and plan view plots suggest the rain/snow
line may setup directly over the forecast area from NNW to SSE,
with more liquid favored W, and wet snow further E, with the
dividing line perhaps right along Hwy 281. I do expect some
heavier precip rates, but even these heavier rates should be
fairly brief for any given location - generally a few hours, or
less. Also, with the marginal temperatures, some of the snow
will likely melt, esp. at the onset. Road conditions may be slow
to respond, as well, given recent treatments over the weekend.
So...all this to say that there`s probably (likely?) going to be
some passing rain/snow showers Tue eve-night, but not expecting
more than a few tenths of snow accums, at most. 12Z EPS probs
for measurable precip range from only 10-20% along Hwy 81, to
more than 70% along Hwy 283. Probabilities for more than a
dusting of snow are near 0. Last item to note...removed any
mention of freezing rain/drizzle from the forecast. Forecast
soundings suggest it`ll be a fairly "clean" transition and not
one that truly favors impactful freezing rain. It may be
rain/snow mix at 32-33 degrees, but falling rain at 30 degrees,
or colder, appears very unlikely.

The rest of the forecast is quiet and turning rather mild.
Wednesday will be a bit of a transition day with perhaps some
lingering flurries in the AM, but Thursday-Friday should be much
warmer in the 50s and 60s. Winds look a tad breezy on Thursday,
but RHs don`t "scream" significant fire weather concerns at this
time. Latest ensembles are in good agreement that above normal
temps will persist through the weekend. EPS and GEPS means are
actually quite mild in the mid 50s to mid 60s, whereas the GEFS
is a bit cooler in the upper 40s to upper 50s. Regardless,
should be a nice weekend with no winter weather concerns.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 634 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview (including winds):
High confidence in precipitation-free weather throughout the
period, and high confidence in VFR ceiling at least the first
9-12 hours KGRI and more so first 12-15 hours KEAR. However,
anytime beyond that (including much of Tuesday daytime), at
least MVFR ceiling becomes increasingly-likely, and KGRI could
even drop to IFR for a time and perhaps see a brief period of
reduced visibility in fog. Winds will not be much of an issue
throughout, with sustained speeds mainly at-or-below 10KT and
direction primarily northerly-to-northwesterly.

- Ceiling/visibility details/uncertainty:
Up front: This is a tricky ceiling forecast, with KGRI more
likely to observe sub-VFR levels than KEAR (and also get them
sooner). Right out of the gate this evening and for the next
several hours, high-confidence VFR as extensive high level
cirrus gradually departs. However, later overnight (mainly
06-12Z), a batch of lower-VFR clouds (ceiling around 5K ft.)
will likely pass through (more likely to affect KGRI).
Thereafter, another batch of lower stratus (at least MVFR level)
is slated to arrive from the north. There is still at least some
uncertainty regarding both...1) how soon these sub-VFR clouds
arrive?...and 2) how far west they will push? As a result, KGRI
appears to get in on MVFR ceiling sooner (as early as 12-14Z),
while KEAR could be JUST far enough west to remain VFR through
at least 15-18Z (it will likely be a very close call). In
addition, KGRI appears to have potential for at least brief IFR
ceiling/MVFR visibility with the initial arrival of low clouds
(mainly 12-16Z). Given the inherent uncertainty at this time did
not assign these lower (sub-MVFR) categories to prevailing
groups, but at least "hinted" at it with scattered IFR clouds
and low-VFR visibility (6SM BR). Finally, getting into the final
6 hours of the period (Tuesday afternoon), while any potential
for possible IFR ends, either a high-end MVFR/low-end VFR
ceiling (mainly in the 2,000-3,500 ft. range) appears likely to
linger (especially KGRI). Again, KEAR could remain JUST far
enough west to moreso favor low-VFR.

IN SUMMARY:
There is still quite a bit of uncertainty in the "finer
details" regarding sub-VFR ceiling categories during the latter
half of the period (12-00Z).

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Pfannkuch