Cozad, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

523
FXUS63 KGID 221141
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
541 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm and dry through the pre-holiday travel
  period.

- Near critical fire weather conditions possible this afternoon
  for areas mainly west of the Tri-Cities.

- Slightly cooler temperatures and next chance for moisture
  arrives late on Christmas Day and continues into the 26th.
  Little to no impacts expected at this time.

- Another round of unseasonable warmth looks to return for much
  of the post-holiday travel period as well - late week into
  next weekend - with more highs in the upper 40s and 50s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 445 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

Main weather story in the short term continues to be
unseasonablewarmth and dry conditions for the busy pre-holiday
travel period. Today looks to be one of, if not the, warmest of
the next week with highs well into the 50s, and even some lower
60s mainly W of Hwy 281. The warmth will come at the expense of
some wind (as it often does this time of year), which could
lead to some near critical fire weather over W portions of the
forecast area this aftn. This is discussed in greater detail
below.

A weak shortwave trough swinging through the Dakotas into Upper
MS Valley will force a weak cold front through tonight and turn
the SWrly flow this aftn to the NW. As such, highs will back off
a touch for Mon, though it will still be quite mild for late Dec
with highs in the 50s essentially area wide. The wind will also
be much lighter...so Mon should be every bit as pleasant and enjoyable
as today, if not more. Temps will continue a modest slide into
Tue thanks to more cloud cover and continued weak mixing...but
mid 40s to lower 50s is still a solid 10-15F above normal.

Sensible weather will change more noticeably on Christmas Day,
esp. later on in the day, as a storm system ejects from the
central/southern Rockies and onto the Plains. Deterministic runs
of the GFS and EC have actually become more divergent over the
past 24 hrs, with the GFS now much more aggressive with QPF at a
higher latitude. For example, last couple runs of the GFS now
bring a decent swath of 0.50-0.75" total QPF through the area,
which is in stark comparison to the only few hundredths on
recent EC runs. Appears the differences continue into their
respective ensemble solutions as well, which is not overly
surprising. FWIW, the Canadian ensemble more closely resembles
the drier EPS, suggesting the GEFS/wetter idea is more of an
outlier solution at this time. Even if the stronger/wetter GFS
solution is onto something, it still appears that a distinct
lack of Arctic air either preceding or during the event should
preclude much, if any, wintry precip/impacts. In fact, only
about 4-6 members of the 50 member EPS (or about 10%), and only
1-3 GEFS members (<10%) are producing any snow whatsoever...and
the ones that are are very light. So looking like mainly
wet/damp roads for those traveling Wed night into Thu night.

There remains good ensemble agreement for another multi-day
stretch of mild/warm high temps in the upper 40s and 50s late
next week into next weekend. There are some model differences in
terms of timing/placement of weak/low amplitude shortwaves and
potential light QPF at times next weekend, which could obviously
impact temperatures. Again, though, lack of meaningful cold air
should keep activity primarily liquid and low impact. Continues
to look like a colder, or at least closer to normal, temp
pattern arrives in time for the new year.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 540 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

VFR through the period with various amounts of high clouds
streaming W to E through the area. Main aviation impact to note
will be gradually veering sfc wind - from SSW now to Wrly around
sunset, then NWrly overnight tonight. Should see a few hour
period late this AM into early aftn where gusts of 17-19kt will
be possible. Otherwise, sustained winds should generally remain
8-13kt today, then 6-8kt tonight. Confidence: High.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 450 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

Have added some "near critical" fire weather wording to the
latest HWO to account for potential window of breezy SW-W winds
gusting around 20 MPH and minimum relative humidity values
around 25 percent. Good amount of sunshine through early to mid
aftn, westerly component to low level flow, and approaching
(albeit weak) cold front all suggest potential for temps, wind,
and RH to possibly overachieve a bit, mainly W of the Tri-
Cities. Thus, felt it was prudent to include at least some
mention of elevated fire weather for a time this aftn.
Conditions should improve rather quickly towards sunset.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Thies
FIRE WEATHER...Thies