Aurora, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

161
FXUS63 KGID 021107
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
607 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Although various, intermittent chances for rain still litter
  our forecast the next 3-4 days, there is little-to-no concern
  for severe thunderstorms, with anything more than a few
  spotty/weak storms unlikely (not even enough a chance to
  carry thunder in our official forecast at this time).

- The only content currently highlighted in our latest Hazardous
  Weather Outlook (HWOGID) is a fairly marginal mention of near-
  critical fire weather conditions this afternoon within parts
  of our Kansas coverage area (CWA).

- There is an outside chance for minor slushy snow accumulation
  mainly within our northwest half late Fri night-Sat AM IF it`s
  still precipitating as temperatures become cold enough to
  support snow, but at this time this possibility is low enough
  confidence (and probably low enough impact) that it`s not yet
  deemed worthy of HWO inclusion.

- Temperature-wise: at least the majority of the next week will
  lean on the slightly-cooler side for early-April, with highs
  most days/most areas only 40s/50s and lows on most nights
  20s/30s (a warmer pattern appears to be looming starting
  middle of next week).

- Going hand in hand with previous: some of these upcoming
  colder nights (particularly this weekend when lows in the 20s
  are most likely) should serve as a reminder that despite our
  very mild March and recent partial green-up, THE GROWING
  SEASON HAS NOT YET STARTED (we typically don`t start issuing
  Frost/Freeze headlines until at least mid-late April)

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 557 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

-- UP FRONT/ADMIN NOTE:
See previous discussion (issued 455 AM) for a recap of Tuesday`s
weather including several (at least slightly) elevated
supercells last evening in our northern counties.


-- PRIMARY 7-DAY FORECAST BIG PICTURE
 TRENDS/CHANGES/UNCERTAINTIES:
- While the various/intermittent precipitation (mainly rain)
  chances these next 3-4 days will surely prove tricky
  especially with regard to timing/exact amounts, the main thing
  is that our entire CWA (in theory) stands a good chance of
  picking up a much-needed/cumulative 0.25-0.75" through Friday
  night-Saturday AM, as starting Saturday daytime the following
  several days look pretty dry.

- Change-wise, there was really nothing major with this
  "forecast package" versus our last one Tues afternoon.

- Although still several days away and obviously not uncommon at
  that time range, the days that currently carry the most
  temperature uncertainty are Mon-Tues as there could be a
  fairly sharp west-east gradient across our greater region,
  with much of our area potentially seeing highs range anywhere
  from 40s-60s.


-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL BREAKDOWN:
- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 5 AM:
Once heavier showers/storms departed our northern/eastern
fringes late last evening, the early-AM hours have honestly been
pretty quiet precip-wise, with only some meager light
showers/sprinkles here or there. In the mid-upper levels, water
vapor satellite imagery/short term model data confirm that we
remain under strong southwesterly flow aloft, as a broad/large-
scale trough dominates the central/western United States with
various shortwave troughs embedded within (the heart of the main
upper system that sparked our weather yesterday is currently
centered over western SD/northwest NE). At the surface, the low
pressure center has been a bit slower to move through than
expected 24 hour ago, but appears to have finally pushed just
east of our CWA (generally around 990 millibars along eastern
parts of the NE/KS border). Behind this system, most of our CWA
is under widespread low clouds, and there are even pockets of
(mainly light) fog and possible a little drizzle (especially
north). Breezes are still fairly light for being in the
immediate wake of the surface low..most areas no more than 5-15
MPH from the north to west. Morning low temps are on track to
bottom out between 40-46 most places.


-- TODAY-EARLY THIS EVENING (through around 10pm):
As the day wears on, the aforementioned surface low will
accelerate northeastward...reaching the northern WI area by
early-mid evening. Meanwhile, in it`s wake, we`ll be in for a
breezy to moderately-windy day (especially mid-late AM onward),
as west-northwest winds will be sustained 15-25 MPH/gusts 25-35
MPH. Especially this morning will feature widespread clouds, but
as the day wears on at least partly cloudy (if not mostly sunny)
skies will gradually materialize...generally from south-
southwest to north-northeast, with north-northeast counties
likely to hold onto the most clouds the longest. Precip-wise,
with residual weak lift rippling through in the continued
southwest flow aloft (and still solidly influenced by the
departing upper system), opted to blanket our entire CWA with a
chance for isolated/scattered showers this morning, followed by
a chance for isolated/high-based sprinkles this afternoon-early
evening as steep low-level lapse rates develop in the presence
of weak instability. Speaking of which, we cannot rule out a few
spotty weak storms both this morning (mainly northeast where
some residual elevated CAPE lingers) and maybe even this
afternoon if one of the spotty high-based sprinkles/showers can
tap into a little instability, but all that being said: MOST of
our CWA will surely be dry MOST of the day-early evening, with
any spotty showers dissipating by 9-10 PM as night falls.
Temperature- wise, highs were changed little (perhaps nudged
down very slightly), and dewpoints were nudged up slightly most
areas versus especially our forecast from 24 hours ago. Highs
are aimed from low-mid 50s north of I-80 to low-mid 60s in our
KS zones. Fortunately, there is overall- lesser concern for fire
weather meeting widespread near-critical to localized critical
thresholds today, but particularly Rooks/Osborne counties in our
far southwest are most favored for a few hours of near-
critical.


- OVERNIGHT:
We continue a dry (beyond any early-evening light
showers/sprinkles), as we briefly reside in between systems.
Skies mainly clear to mostly clear, as breezes quickly drop off
from their afternoon peak and become more northerly with time.
Assuming skies are mainly clear, our lows may not be aimed quite
cold enough, but for now have most of the CWA bottoming out
between 30-35.


- THURSDAY-THURS NIGHT:
While most of the CWA will start off the day dry (especially
north half), our next disturbance riding up from the southwest
will spread increasing chances for rain/showers across much of
our area especially afternoon and overnight (although some
models suggest that much of this precip could concentrate mainly
in counties west of Highway 281...where our overall-highest
chances (PoPs) reside. High temps aimed mid 50s most areas, with
lows Thurs night held up by widespread clouds into the
mid-30s-low 40s. Daytime winds will mainly average easterly
10-20 MPH.


- FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT:
If you miss out on rain during the preceding 24 hours, then
these 24 hours probably hold even better promise for at least
SOMETHING measurable, as the combo of ONE FINAL upper wave
approaching from the southwest and another upper trough tracking
east-southeast across the Northern Plains toward the Great Lakes
should set up a fairly concentrated swath of chilly rain (maybe
eventually changing to a touch of wet snow Friday night in our
north/west?). Not necessarily a true "rain out", but plenty of
showers and/or drizzle around. High temps only upper 40s-low 50s
most areas, and Fri night lows upper 20s-mid 30s (coldest
north/west).


-- SATURDAY-SUNDAY:
Admittedly, our official forecast hangs onto some modest
(albeit less than "likely") precip chances Saturday daytime and
even into the evening south, but latest ECMWF/GFS suggest this
is plenty generous and would expect these PoPs to continue to
decrease/disappear if trends hold. Even as precip ends, it will
be a seasonably-cool weekend with highs Saturday only 40s and
Sunday rebounding into the 50s. Saturday will also feature
fairly brisk north winds.


-- MONDAY-TUESDAY:
A fairly high-confidence dry forecast carries over from the
weekend as we reside under overall-benign north-northwesterly
flow aloft. As earlier mentioned, there is some temperature
uncertainty depending on exactly how a west-east temperature
gradient sets up over our region (modulated by strong high
pressure nosing southward from the Northern Plains into the
Midwest, but for now we`re calling for mainly 50s Monday and
warmer 60s Tuesday (with some 70s looking more likely just
beyond our official 7-day).

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 558 AM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

MVFR to IFR ceilings expected this morning as obs keep showing
BKN-SCT the last few hours. Decided to TEMPO the first two hours
of the TAFs because of this. Ceilings should gradually rise to
VFR this afternoon. This evening some spotty showers may move
through the TAF sites, so put in a PROB30 for those. The winds
look gusty today as a tight gradient will be over the area.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...NWS Hastings