Aurora, Nebraska 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

484
FXUS63 KGID 181100
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
600 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

...Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- While the majority of our forecast area (CWA) will be
  thunderstorm-free today, and severe storms are fairly
  unlikely, there is a non-zero chance that a stronger storm or
  two could produce small hail and/or gusty winds through late
  this afternoon.

- Our attention increasingly-turns to this year`s first round of
  truly oppressive heat Friday-Sunday, with peak daytime heat
  index at least 100-105 most areas (especially Fri-Sat), and
  overnight lows providing limited relief dropping no lower
  than mid-upper 70s. At least a 2-3 day Heat Advisory is
  looking increasingly-likely in later forecast packages.

- Along with the aforementioned heat, Friday-Sunday will also be
  a bit windy by late-June standards, with sustained speeds
  commonly 15-25 MPH/gusts 30-35+ MPH...possibly providing some
  relief but also giving it that "blast furnace" feel.

- Our forecast remains dry this evening through Sunday daytime,
  before various, still rather uncertain rain/thunderstorm
  chances arrive Sunday night-Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 447 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

-- 7-DAY FORECAST BIG PICTURE THOUGHTS, CHANGES, UNCERTAINTIES:

- Overall no big changes versus previous forecast package, with
  the Fri-Sun heat clearly becoming the main focus. As touched
  on above, a 2-3 day Heat Advisory "headline" is probably on
  the table in the near future, especially considering it`s our
  first widespread 100-105 heat index situation of the year (and
  despite MOST areas probably falling a touch short of our long-
  standing "technical" Advisory criteria of 105+). Also worth
  noting is that experimental NWSHeatRisk maps 9which take into
  account the time of year, heat duration etc.) are pegging
  most/all of our CWA into the Major (level 3 of 4) category.

- Backing up to today, and although not considered likely (we`re
  in agreement with SPC only assigning "general thunder" to our
  CWA), there does appear to be at least limited potential for
  an isolated, "sneaky" stronger storm or two capable of
  producing small hail/gusty winds, particularly this afternoon
  and mainly in counties north and east of the Tri Cities (just
  something to watch for/not get caught off-guard by).


-- 7-DAY FORECAST CHRONOLOGICAL DETAILS:

-- CURRENT/RECENT WEATHER SCENE AS OF 4 AM:
Starting with some quick comments on yesterday afternoon-
evening, it was very clear that one "silver lining" to the
widespread thunderstorm/scattered severe activity Monday
evening-night was that it cleaned out/"junked up" our
environment for anything resembling a repeated severe threat for
Tuesday (instead focusing the vast majority of regional severe
weather to our south). That being said, some very spotty and
even briefly- strong storms did flare up with afternoon heating
in limited parts of our CWA.

As for the ongoing overnight-early morning period, the vast
majority of our CWA has thus far remained dry/storm-free, with
the main notable exception being Valley/Greeley counties in our
far north, where a small line/cluster of non-severe storms
pushed in from the west over the last few hours, largely tied to
a small-scale disturbance (MCV) embedded within a broader/larger
scale shortwave trough tracking eastward across the Central
Plains. Within the heart of this thunderstorm complex, radar
estimation and a handful of automated gauges that especially
parts of Valley County (including Ord) picked up a quick
0.50-1.00" of rain. Meanwhile, only a few spotty lighter drifted
through mainly some of our southwestern zones overnight, as
again, most places have stayed dry.

At the surface, the pattern/pressure gradient is pretty weak,
keeping winds light (mainly under 7 MPH), thus far from various
directions but should eventually trending more consistently
north-northwesterly getting later into the morning. Under a
decent amount of mid-high level cloud cover, most of our CWA
appears on track to see lows bottom out 60-63. Although not
expected to be a widespread concern by any means, would not be
shocked to see a little patchy fog try to develop yet this
morning (not in our official forecast), but the cloud cover is
likely one factor holding this potential back a bit.


- TODAY (through around 7 PM):
While not necessarily a "perfect day" by any means, first and
foremost take advantage of the seasonable temperatures to get
outside for work/play if you can, because the heat cranks up
after today.

In the big picture of the mid-upper levels, the aforementioned
upper wave will gradually depart to our east today. And while
most areas will likely stay dry under partly-mostly cloudy
skies, we have at least slight (20%) chances/PoPs for spotty
showers/weak thunderstorms across our entire CWA for at least
part of this morning (higher chances north of I-80 in closer
proximity to the very slow-moving MCV), and then a continuation
of slight chances for showers/isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon mainly for counties along/east of Highway 281. While
most areas will surely be dry this afternoon (hence only slight
chances), the combination of seasonably-modest-but-evident
instability/CAPE of around 500-800 J/kg during peak heating, in
combo with modest deep-layer shear around 30KT and residual lift
on the very backside of the departing wave, COULD spark off a
few "sneaky" stronger thunderstorms that would track northwest-
to-southeast through some of our east and especially northeast
counties. Should this occur, small hail/gusty winds certainly a
possibility, but again, on a very isolated basis. Backing up to
this morning, although flooding is not a big concern by any
means, some localized "bullseyes" of around 1" of rain probably
cannot be ruled out mainly in our northern counties from the
slow-moving/regenerating showers/weak storms occurring near the
MCV.

In other departments today, nudged up high temps a degree or two
from previous, with most areas aimed low-80s but more mid-80s
south and southwest. Not accounting for any localize influences
from shower/storm outflow, breezes today will be fairly
light...generally around 10 MPH out of the north-northwest.


- THIS EVENING-OVERNIGHT (beyond 7 PM):
Have maintained a dry forecast, as any spotty showers/storms
that might be in our east-northeast counties late this
afternoon-early evening are expected to fade away and/or depart
by 7 PM. This should make for a pretty pleasant evening under
mostly clear skies. Winds this evening will become very
light/variable in direction, then turn light southerly
overnight. As with daytime highs, tonight`s lows will also be
the coolest we`ll see for a while, with most areas forecast to
drop to around 60, and even some upper 50s especially far
north-northwest.


- THURSDAY-THURS NIGHT:
Overall high-confidence in our going dry forecasts upper-level
high pressure/ridging centered to our south over the Southern
Plains becomes our dominant influence aloft. That being said,
there are at least subtle hints (mainly ECMWF) that some
thunderstorm activity could TRY developing into mainly our
northern zones Thurs night. However, higher-res/short term
models largely dismiss this and focus potential convection at
least slightly off to our north-through-east where mid-level
temps will be a little cooler/less capped.

Speaking of temps, Thursday starts our heat ramp-up, and this
latest forecast has nudged up highs a few more degrees (most of
the CWA 92-97). However, heat index should hold under 100 for
one last day. Thursday also kicks off our string of breezy-to-
windy days, with southerly speeds sustained at least 15-20
MPH/gusts 25-30 MPH mainly during the afternoon. Low temps
Thurs night will easily hold up 10-12 degrees warmer than Wed
night (most places low 70s).


- FRIDAY-SUNDAY (hot, dry and windy for June):
Have already touched on the heat situation plenty above, and yes
it gets hot EVERY summer, but that FIRST multi-day round of
temps and/or heat index 100+ degrees is always a bit more
concerning given that we`re not acclimated to it.

In the mid-upper levels, the center of the sprawling upper level
high/ridge will gradually migrate northeastward from the
Southern Plains to the heart of the eastern U.S. over the course
of these three days, while off to the west a large-scale trough
gradually builds into the western U.S. However, at least through
Sunday daytime, any influence of that trough should remain far
enough west (and with very warm mid level temps/capping
overhead), to shunt any rain/thunderstorm chances well to our
north. While Sunday MIGHT be SLIGHTLY "cooler" than Fri-Sat (am
not necessarily sold on this yet), all 3 days look downright hot
with actual high temps Fri-Sat mainly 100-105 and Sunday
possibly "only" mid-upper 90s. Fortunately, it won`t be super-
humid (dewpoints 50s-60s), which will keep heat index in check,
but still with widespread 100-105 and localized slightly higher.
While highs Fri-Sat could at least flirt with official daily
records in Grand Island/Hastings, it`s actually more likely that
daily records are threatened for WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS, with most
of the CWA forecast to drop no cooler than mid-upper 70s.
Depending on your particular situation/perspective, the
seasonably-windy conditions each afternoon with gusts commonly
30-35+ MPH could provide some relief, but also accentuate that
"blast furnace" feel.


- MONDAY-TUESDAY:
Although confidence is still plenty low in the details at this
Day 6-7 range, in theory we see a return of thunderstorm chances
(potentially decent chances and perhaps some severe threat?) as
weak disturbances riding along the southwest-northeast oriented
interface between the eastern U.S. ridge and western U.S. trough
provide some upper lift into our region and diminish mid-level
capping, while at the surface at least a weak cold front should
sink southward toward/into our area, dialing back the heat
toward more tolerable levels. At least for now, we`re aiming
Monday highs mostly upper 80s-low 90s, and Tuesday mostly 80s,
but much will depend on exact frontal position, precipitation
trends etc.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 600 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:
- General overview (including winds):
High confidence in VFR ceiling/visibility and rain/thunderstorm-
free conditions through at least the vast majority of the
period. However, especially these first 3-4 hours will feature a
chance for a few passing showers/weak thunderstorms (mainly at
KGRI), and also some continued "sneaky" development of low
clouds (MVFR/IFR). Wind-wise, aside from any possible brief
enhancement from convective outflow (gusts 15-20+KT certainly
possible should this occur), prevailing speeds should largely
hold at-or-below 10KT, with direction predominantly out of the
north-northwest today and then variable-becoming-southerly
tonight.

- Ceiling/visibility/precipitation details and uncertainty:
Right out of the gate early this morning KGRI is very near an
area of showers/weak thunderstorms centered 10-20 miles north,
while KEAR is farther removed from this convection but is also
reporting at least brief/transient IFR ceiling. For KGRI, have a
PROB30 group through 16Z to cover the continued possibility of a
few showers/weak storms passing through, while at KEAR kept out
any formal -TSRA mention but did run a TEMPO through 15Z to
cover the MVFR/IFR ceiling potential. Beyond these very short-
term concerns, confidence is very high in VFR this afternoon
through tonight as skies clear. It`s not out of the question
that KGRI could see a very isolated passing shower/thunderstorm
this afternoon, but this is a low enough probability that felt
even a PROB30 could not be justified.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pfannkuch
AVIATION...Pfannkuch