Sidney, Montana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

119
FXUS65 KGGW 142139
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
239 PM MST Thu Nov 14 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

1) Dry weather and above normal temperatures will continue on
Friday.

2) A cold front will arrive Friday night with a mix of rain and
snow through Saturday. Highest confidence for accumulating snow is
over higher terrain of the Little Rockies and Big Sheeps.
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

Gusty winds this afternoon continue and so will continue with the
Lake Wind Advisory for Fort Peck Lake through 5PM. Mild and dry
weather will continue on Friday before the next cold front
approaches.

Rain and snow mix are expected initially, which has support from
high res model guidance coming in and is in line with expected
thermal profiles. Given low temperatures in the upper 20s and low
30s, a flip to snow is expected for most places on Saturday.

Ensembles show ridging returning late in the weekend before the
next trough appears early next week.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

A blend with NBM90 was used in the short term given the
observations and Lake Wind Advisory in effect.

Broad consensus is building for a general 0.10" to 0.25" QPF event
across NE Montana on Friday night and Saturday, though there
continues to be wide spread among ensemble members in expected
snowfall amount. Given precipitation type issues and marginally
supportive temperatures for snow, confidence will likely remain
lower than average going into the event. That being said, the NBM
shows a 48 hour 50 percent probability of at least 2 inches of
snowfall through Saturday across complex terrain areas like the
Little Rockies and the Big Sheep Mountains. About a 1 in 3 chance
for 2 inches of snow is currently indicated for the eastern zones.
Thus, an advisory level event cannot be ruled out here, but
greater confidence exists over higher terrain and further north
and east where thermal profiles will more likely be supportive.
Lower elevations will need to be monitored should the guidance
come in colder. Given that it is early in the season, it would not
take much snowfall accumulation to create wider impact for the
area.


&&

.AVIATION...
Mid and high clouds will pass over the region from time to time
this afternoon and evening with mainly clear skies expected
tonight. Thus, look for VFR conditions to persist.

West to northwest winds will continue at 15 to 25 kts, gusting to
30 kts at times through 01Z, then becoming southwest at 5 to 10
kts this evening and light and variable overnight.


&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Lake Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for Central and
Southeast Phillips-Central and Southern Valley-Garfield-McCone-
Petroleum.

&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow