North Browning, Montana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

282
FXUS65 KTFX 101742
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1142 AM MDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Aviation Section Updated.

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Daily opportunities for mainly afternoon and evening showers and
   thunderstorms through the remainder of the week, with some
   storms on the stronger side.

 - Temperatures trend closer to normal after today.

 - Hazy skies return today, mostly across North-central Montana.

&&

.UPDATE...
/Issued 1000 AM MDT Tue Jun 10 2025/

Morning update has been published, with only minor adjustments
made as the on-going forecast is performing well. One minor
adjustment made was to increase PoPs by 10-15% across Southwest
and portions of Central Montana where latest Hi-Res guidance
continues to favor showers and thunderstorms developing across
these areas by as early as 1 PM MDT (give or take and hour).
Showers and thunderstorms will then move east to northeast across
Southwest through North Central Montana through the remainder of
the afternoon and evening hours, generally exiting North Central
Montana by early Wednesday morning. Main threat from any strong
shower or storm will be gusty and erratic winds, with around a 5%
chance for damaging winds in excess of 58 mph. While a 5% chance
for large hail (i.e. quarter size or greater) also exists with any
of the stronger storms, marginal CAPE and high freezing levels
may inhibit hail growth and the ability for larger stones to make
it to the surface. - Moldan

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/Issued 1000 AM MDT Tue Jun 10 2025/

 - Meteorological Overview:

Weakly anti-cyclonic zonal flow across the Northern Rockies is in
place to start the forecast. Slightly cooler air aloft will move in
today, which combined with better surface moisture, will aid in the
development of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms.
There appears to be sufficient shear for a few organized
thunderstorms capable of gusty winds and marginally large hail,
mainly along the Rocky Mountain Front, adjacent plains, and across
Central Montana.

Flow aloft turns a bit more southwesterly Wednesday as a favorably
timed wave moves across southern ID and vicinity in the afternoon
hours. This looks to promote another round of showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday, with convective initiation beginning
earlier compared to today`s showers and thunderstorms. Gusty winds
and large hail will once again be the main concern with the
strongest thunderstorms Wednesday, which are most favored across
Southwest Montana.

A relatively compact upper low then sets up near the BC coast late
this week into the weekend. Several waves pivoting around the base
of this upper low will eject toward the Northern Rockies, which will
promote several more rounds of showers and thunderstorms. These
mostly look to be the afternoon and evening variety, but exact
timing will depend on the timing of each of these waves, which is
murky at this time. Easterly surface winds advecting in moisture
underneath a southwesterly flow aloft is a common recipe for
stronger, more organized thunderstorms, with this setup being no
exception. There looks to be at least low-end risk for stronger
thunderstorms each day through the weekend. Gusty winds and hail
continue to be the greatest concern each day. -AM

 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

The greatest bit of uncertainty this forecast period is for timing
the ejecting waves late week toward the weekend. Should these waves
trend toward an afternoon and early evening timing, the risk for
strong thunderstorms would increase. Conversely, waves with a late
overnight or early morning timing would still favor thunderstorms,
but the risk for stronger thunderstorms would be a bit lower. For
now, there is a marginal risk for severe weather today and
Wednesday. As confidence increases in the when and where for strong
thunderstorms late week, additional risk areas will be introduced.
-AM

&&

.AVIATION...
10/18Z TAF Period

The main concern for terminals this afternoon and evening will be
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. A few stronger
storms can bring strong to severe winds and smaller hail (up to
1"). Smoke aloft advecting from Canada will continue to bring
reductions in slantwise visibility (with KHVR reporting VFR haze
at the surface). Localized FU near KHLN from a wildfire continues,
but is not expected to impact the terminal at this time. -Wilson

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  85  54  80  55 /  30  40  40  80
CTB  80  48  74  52 /  30  40  40  80
HLN  88  56  79  57 /  40  40  50  70
BZN  85  51  77  50 /  30  40  60  80
WYS  78  40  72  38 /  40  40  80  80
DLN  84  49  71  46 /  40  40  80  60
HVR  82  53  80  51 /  10  60  40  70
LWT  81  51  76  52 /  30  40  50  80

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$
http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls