Lockwood, Montana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

689
FXUS65 KBYZ 230815
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
115 AM MST Sat Nov 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty winds develop along the western foothills today.

- Turning colder with some snow at lower elevations tonight and
  Sunday (30-60% chance of 1+ inches west of Rosebud County).

- Mostly dry Monday through Wednesday.

- Waves of snow and colder air possible Wednesday night through
  the holiday weekend, but details are very uncertain at this
  time; monitor the forecast if you have travel plans!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday...

Very interesting, complex and changeable weather coming over the
next 36 hours.

Low level easterly winds continue across the lower elevations
currently, including at Livingston, with north winds in the
northern half of the Paradise Valley. In other words, lee side
high pressure will hold off gusty/downslope winds along the
foothills for awhile, likely until midday or so. Surface temps are
in the 20s at lower elevations and 30s over the mountains.
Satellite imagery shows a dirty SW flow ahead of a deep Pacific
coast trof. Today`s shortwave of interest, a feature that will
lift through western and north central MT later today, can be
seen over western OR.

Let`s address wind first. As already mentioned, no risk of high
winds this morning. However, lee side pressure falls in a pre-
frontal regime will promote mixed SW winds along the western
foothills this afternoon. Models are in some disagreement with
regard to mid level wind speeds, but with the mixing of winds in
line (geographically) with the Paradise valley, 50+ mph gusts are
likely (80% chance) at Livingston. There is a short pre-frontal
window of potential advisory level gusts (40% chance) and this
will need to be watched. As the trof moves in from the west, we
should also see a short period of enhanced wind at other foothill
locations like Red Lodge, Fort Smith and Dayton/Sheridan. Gusts of
30-40 mph gusts are possible in at these locations (30-50%
chance). This evening, the arrival of a cold front will end the
risk of gusty winds along the foothills and introduce brisk NW
winds across the lower elevations tonight, continuing in the east
thru Sunday.

Temperature forecast for today is tricky if not impossible. Low
level cool easterly winds will persist for most of the day. By
late afternoon and evening we will see a push of SW-W winds
somewhat east of the foothills, to be followed quickly by the cold
front and shift to NW winds. Many locations (including Billings
and Sheridan) will probably see their high temps today occur in
the evening (i.e. after 00z). It will turn much colder tonight.
Sunday will be our coldest day yet of the fall with highs
remaining below freezing across the region.

Now to precipitation including lower elevation snowfall. Height
falls w/ moist SW flow will bring accumulating snow to the western
mountains today into the evening, with a period of drying and
subsidence tonight behind the initial wave. Frontal precip at
lower elevations should be minimal as most of the forcing lifts to
the west/north of us. The greater chance of light snow at lower
elevations will be late tonight thru Sunday with a trailing weak
shortwave. There remains plenty of model spread here due to
differences in the track of the wave, but even slight forcing
combined with low level upslope winds and steep mid level lapse
rates (which intersect the dendritic layer) should squeeze out
some light snow, mainly west of Rosebud County, with greatest
chances along and south of a Melville-Billings-Busby line. Here
are a couple noteworthy probabilities for tonight thru Sunday.

1+ inches of snow:  30-60% west of Rosebud County
2+ inches of snow:  10-20% at lower elevations, 80-90% mountains
4+ inches of snow:  60% over the western mountains
6+ inches of snow:  30-50% over the western mountains

Finally, with the colder temps, we will see accumulation on roads
and sidewalks (not just "grassy" areas) so take care if you have
travel plans.

JKL

Sunday night through Saturday...

Sunday night is expected to be cold, with lows in the low teens
over the west to near zero near the Dakota border, with a few
lingering flurries. Then, a warm advection pattern Monday through
Tuesday will keep conditions mostly dry and increase highs to the
upper 30s to mid 40s by Tuesday.

Models have come into better agreement for a cooling trend into
Thanksgiving day, but there is still significant disagreement on
the magnitude. By Thanksgiving, warmer solutions point towards
temps in the upper 30s while the coldest solutions favor
temperatures less than 20. Beyond Thursday, the forecast remains
uncertain, beyond a continued unsettled pattern. For now, the NBM
continues to favor highs in the mid 20s over the east to upper 30s
over the west, with low (10-30%) daily chances of snow over the
plains. Archer

&&

.AVIATION...

A combination of low stratus and fog will impact the region this
morning, with greatest coverage across the north and east, though
all MT TAF sites are at risk of flight category reductions. Expect
areas of MVFR to LIFR conditions. Fog and stratus will slowly
dissipate through mid to late morning. Shower chances will
increase from the west this afternoon and evening. Expect
mountains to become increasingly obscured while VFR prevails at
lower elevations. Late tonight, there will be localized MVFR in
light snow at lower elevations from KBIL westward. Regarding wind,
expect LLWS at KLVM this morning as SW flow increases on top of
light easterly surface winds. By the afternoon, mixed SW winds
will strengthen along the foothills. Expect gusts of 40-50 knots
at KLVM after 19z, until a cold front arrives in the evening. This
cold front will bring NW wind gusts of 15-25 knots across the
plains. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 040 020/026 010/032 018/042 022/037 016/031 015/032
    0/E 26/S    10/B    00/B    11/B    32/S    12/S
LVM 052 023/030 015/042 022/043 020/037 017/038 018/039
    2/W 46/S    10/U    11/B    22/S    21/B    11/B
HDN 040 018/027 008/031 013/041 019/037 014/030 011/030
    0/B 25/S    10/U    01/B    12/S    33/S    23/S
MLS 038 017/024 005/026 011/038 016/031 009/025 008/027
    0/E 22/S    00/U    00/B    01/B    11/B    11/E
4BQ 043 020/026 008/032 013/043 020/035 013/029 011/030
    0/E 12/S    10/U    00/U    01/B    11/B    11/B
BHK 033 012/023 001/025 006/038 012/030 004/023 002/026
    0/N 11/N    00/U    00/B    11/B    11/B    11/B
SHR 050 020/028 010/039 016/046 019/039 013/035 012/037
    0/B 25/S    20/U    00/B    12/S    33/S    12/S

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings