Lockwood, Montana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

153
FXUS65 KBYZ 130345
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
845 PM MST Tue Nov 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Strong gap winds are expected to develop around Livingston to
  Nye early Wednesday morning into Thursday morning. Winds look to
  be strongest Wednesday evening.

- Additional potential weather systems bring cooler and wetter
  conditions for Friday/Saturday and Monday/Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...

Trough was over the forecast area this evening per water vapor
imagery and mesoanalysis. Shortwave in the trough had generated
some snow showers over the SW mountains, so added low PoPs for
those. Precipitation over the E and Sheridan County had all but
dissipated per obs and webcams. Slightly adjusted PoPs in those
areas as well. As of 03Z, strongest wind gusts were over the far
E, in the 20s, and KLVM and K6S0 were gusting to around 20 kt as
well. Lowered speeds over much of the area until 09Z, when
pressure gradient will become more favorable for gusty gap winds.
Winds will continue to increase on Wednesday before tapering off
late Thursday morning. The Wind Advisory for the gap areas was in
good shape. Arthur

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The rest of today through Thursday...

Precipitation is moving across the region and will exit by
tonight. Any accumulations so far have been light, with generally
less than 0.1" outside of the mountains and foothills. Light snow
accumulations have been occuring as low as 4000 ft, and the
mountains are still expected to see snow totals in the 1 to 4 inch
range. Because the majority of precip is occuring while the sun
is up, road impacts are minimal. Late Wednesday into Thursday,
some energy from the next approaching system will provide a 30%
chance of light snow over the Absaroka/Beartooth mountains.

Breezy conditions are spreading over the region today behind the
cold front, with gusts around 25 to 35 mph common. Then, a gap
wind event over the Livingston-Big Timber-Nye area looks to begin
to set up late tonight as the pressure gradient becomes more
favorable. The strongest winds are expected Wednesday afternoon
into overnight as the 700 mb winds become strongest. Currently,
there is a 95% chance of gusts of 50 mph or greater from
Livingston to Nye and 70% chance of gusts of 60 mph or greater. A
Wind Advisory is in effect for this area 8 AM Wednesday to 11 AM
Thursday. Archer



Thursday night through Tuesday...

The extended forecast shows two periods of precipitation potential
(Fri-Sat night/Mon-Tue) with a period of gusty foothills winds
sandwiched into Sunday.

Friday is generally a pre-frontal day, with the exception of the
western foothills where the front/precipitation develop in the
afternoon hours. Pre-frontal high temperatures should reach the
50s most areas and cant rule out a few lower 60s over SE Montana.
Easterly low level winds ahead of the front will advect plains
moisture into the area Friday/Friday night ahead of the Pacific
cold front which has its own mid level moisture. This will set up
the atmosphere for a good chance of precipitation from Friday
night through at least Saturday evening.

The Pacific trof pushing the front through the area continues to
show indications of splitting over the area which would hold
precipitation amounts down. However it has also been shifting
further east with the core of the energy and becoming more
positively tilted, especially in the GFS ensembles, putting the
dynamics in a better place to maximize lift over the area ahead of
this split. Overall the precipitation amounts during the Fri-Sat
period have remained pretty steady with at least a 10th of an inch
across the area and a band of over two tenths along and south of
I-90/US212 (southern portion of the forecast area). Probabilities
for more than a quarter of an inch are in the 40 to 60 percent
range for these areas including Billings, Hardin, Columbus,
Livingston.

Snow levels during this period drop to around 3500 feet by
Sunrise on Saturday, and snow will likely be the primary
precipitation type for much of the area Saturday morning where
temperatures are at or below 36 degrees. As far as snow
accumulations go, currently we have an inch or two for areas with
the higher precipitation potential discussed above. Foothills
will be closer to 3-4 inches. Mountains are showing 5-10 inches,
with the Bighorns being a bit lower at 3 to 6 inches. For the
lower elevations expect this light accumulation to be on grassy
surfaces with roads melting out for the most part. This system is
still adjusting and is several days out, so expect additional
adjustments to the forecast, but for those having travel or
outdoor plans expect a wintry day Saturday.

As the Saturday system moves east and splits up, surface pressure
gradients become favorable for a period of gusty to potentially
strong foothills winds on Sunday from Nye to Livingston and
potentially up to Harlowton.

The split energy that heads down to the four corners on Fri-Sat
catches up with more energy moving out of California, strengthens
into a consolidated low, and then ejects northeast Mon-Tue.
Previous runs have brought this system close enough to SE Montana
to drive a period of snow. The latest deterministic models are
keeping this feature much further east(especially the EC) and
instead bringing a relatively dry cold front in from Alberta. NBM
precipitation potential is still holding onto the older solution
for a fairly wet/snowy forecast for eastern zones. We will have
to see if the ensembles follow the deterministic trends going
forward for a drier solution with subsequent forecasts. Chambers

&&

.AVIATION...


VFR will prevail at area terminals through the TAF period.
Isolated to scattered rain and snow showers will occur near the
MT/WY border through about 06z Wednesday. There will be areas of
mountain obscuration tonight for much of the area, and then mainly
in the Beartooth/Absaroka Mountains on Wednesday. LLWS will
develop over southeast MT overnight into Wednesday morning. In
addition, winds will strengthen in the western foothills overnight
into Wednesday, with wind gusts at KLVM reaching 40 kt early
Wednesday morning and 50 kt by late Wednesday afternoon. RMS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 028/051 033/057 032/051 032/042 027/047 031/044 027/038
    00/U    00/N    00/B    57/O    10/N    23/O    22/S
LVM 024/049 032/052 029/048 027/039 024/044 025/040 020/035
    10/N    11/N    02/O    85/S    11/N    44/S    32/S
HDN 025/053 029/059 030/052 029/041 024/048 028/045 025/039
    10/U    00/U    00/B    48/O    10/U    24/O    32/S
MLS 028/052 027/058 030/054 029/041 025/049 029/046 026/039
    10/U    00/U    00/B    27/O    20/U    12/R    32/S
4BQ 030/051 028/060 031/056 030/040 026/049 028/045 026/037
    10/U    00/U    00/B    17/O    20/U    13/O    32/S
BHK 025/051 025/058 028/057 027/041 023/048 025/046 023/037
    10/U    00/U    00/B    16/O    30/U    12/R    32/S
SHR 022/052 027/059 029/052 026/040 022/050 025/044 022/036
    20/U    00/U    00/B    37/O    10/U    24/O    43/S

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Wind Advisory in effect from 8 AM Wednesday to 11 AM MST
      Thursday FOR ZONES 65-66.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings