Lockwood, Montana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

213
FXUS65 KBYZ 270818
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
218 AM MDT Sun Jul 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- For today, isolated late afternoon and evening thunderstorms,
  mainly west and north of Billings, could produce strong wind
  gusts.

- Elevated atmospheric moisture will bring an increasing risk of
  thunderstorms (possibly severe) and locally heavy rain Monday
  through Thursday. The greatest potential for more widespread
  precipitation is Tuesday through Thursday.

- Near normal temperatures today will give way to cooler than
  normal conditions starting Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Through Monday Night...

Satellite imagery shows SW flow over the region with a departing
wave to our northeast. Most convection has ended for the night,
but there remain a few elevated weak cells over our far east as of
0745z. These should end before sunrise and the remainder of the
morning will be dry. The next approaching shortwave of interest is
moving from northeast NV into southeast ID.

Today`s convection should be of less coverage and generally weaker
than Saturday. Mid levels will warm a bit and shortwave passage
favors our W/NW (slightly cooler mid level temps) for greatest
chance of t-storms, while a period of subsidence slides over our
east. Although a shift to easterly surface winds will begin to
slowly advect higher boundary layer moisture, today will remain
warm and storms will be high-based...thus wind is the greatest
threat from today`s convection. Recent HREF shows the highest
severe wind probs in an area NW-N of Billings. Overall, the
greatest risk of severe storms will be north of our forecast area.
That said, though model soundings show a little mid level
capping, there will be plenty of instability over our east if
something does develop (perhaps by outflow boundaries in the
evening) so this will need to be watched. CAMs are in agreement in
keeping storms out of our east though.

East flow deepens and precipitable waters respond accordingly on
Monday. The chance of storms will increase, as will instability
and shear and thus the risk of severe wx. Monday looks somewhat
complicated though. There is a mid level wave lifting through our
east in the morning, and some CAMs show notable convection
developing by late morning in our northeast. That wave departs in
the afternoon and more energy emerges from the SW flow aloft.
Thus, expect more typical diurnal development over our west, which
should track eastward across the plains in the evening. The day2
outlook highlights most of our cwa for a marginal risk of severe
t-storms on Monday, with risks of large hail and strong winds.

Temperatures will remain near normal today (highs in upper 80s and
lower 90s) then cool to the upper 70s and 80s Monday.

JKL

Tuesday through Friday...

Continuous disturbances under southwest flow as well as southeast
flow at the low levels will allow for daily chances (30-60%) of
showers and thunderstorms. This pattern will lead to increased
atmospheric moisture (pwats ~ 1-1.3 inches) and thus increased
instability which will allow for these daily chances of showers
and thunderstorms. Into Tuesday, southeast low level winds will
wrap around into the foothills across south central MT. With this,
the ensembles are showing anomalously high instability levels for
this time of year (sfc CAPE values around 1200-1600 J/kg). With
the lack of shear in this pattern, storms will be slow moving and
pose a risk for heavy rain under any strong thunderstorms.
Ensembles aren`t quite in agreement on the placement of the
heaviest rainfall, so make sure to watch the forecast as the time
approaches.

High temperatures will be in the upper 70s and 80s for the period,
with the coolest days occuring mid week. TS/WMR

&&

.AVIATION...

Isolated TS linger over the east thru 10Z, and no TAF site is
expected to be impacted. VFR will prevail this morning. From mid
afternoon through sunset, expect isolated thunderstorms over the
west and north, possibly impacting KLVM (30% chance) and KBIL (20%
chance) with strong wind gusts. Brief MVFR is possible with any
storms, otherwise VFR will prevail through tonight. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 092 060/083 061/080 060/083 062/085 061/087 060/087
    2/T 22/T    24/T    44/T    44/T    43/T    32/T
LVM 089 050/085 053/081 054/081 055/083 053/085 053/085
    3/T 23/T    35/T    45/T    45/T    44/T    33/T
HDN 093 059/085 060/082 060/084 061/086 059/088 058/088
    1/U 21/B    24/T    44/T    54/T    43/T    32/T
MLS 092 064/083 062/081 061/082 062/084 062/086 061/088
    1/U 23/T    35/T    53/T    44/T    43/T    42/T
4BQ 092 062/088 063/080 062/080 062/081 062/085 062/087
    0/U 01/U    24/T    64/T    54/T    42/T    32/T
BHK 091 060/080 058/078 057/079 057/078 057/080 058/085
    1/U 14/T    34/T    52/T    43/T    43/T    32/T
SHR 092 057/086 057/082 055/082 057/083 056/086 054/087
    0/U 11/U    24/T    55/T    55/T    43/T    23/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings