Laurel, Montana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

955
FXUS65 KBYZ 221117
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
417 AM MST Sun Dec 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gusty SW-W winds continue along the western foothills through
  today

- Above normal temperatures continue through this week, with
  periodic windy conditions along the foothills west of Billings

- Travel conditions look good leading up to Christmas

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Monday Night...

With the frontal passage currently sweeping across eastern
Montana, as expected, it`s been producing light rain across the
southern half of the state. Fortunately, warmer surface
temperatures and drier conditions are keeping the risk of freezing
rain nearly zero (although that changes drastically across
northeast MT). The only areas that contain a remote risk of some
light freezing rain are Miles City through Baker, but even then
the probably of any amount of it occurring is under 10%. Looking
further west, the mountains are seeing some light snow, and are
expected to pick up a couple of inches through this morning.

With precipitation talks out of the way, it`s time to return our
attention once again to wind. A strong pressure gradient currently
sits over south-central Montan, and has been producing gusts in
the Livingston vicinity up to 55 mph. With he front already past
and its winds becoming more westerly than southwesterly, expect
winds there to be more in the 40-50 mph range through this morning
(but still with a 40% chance to exceed 50 mph through noon). The
shift to a more west to east pressure gradient will allow winds
from Big Timber and north through Harlowton to increase throughout
this morning, with peak wind potential (70% chance for winds
gusting to at least 50 mph) occurring in the late morning hours.
While winds will decrease after, expect breezy winds 25-40 mph to
persist through the rest of today.

Monday sees a quick ridge build over the area and keep warm
conditions present. That said, another quick shortwave will pass
through later in the day, bringing yet another chance (20%) of
light rain to the lower elevation, and 2-5 inches of snow to the
mountains (mainly on west facing slopes). Vertz

Tuesday through Sunday...

The long term forecast will feature above average temperatures and
dry conditions. Temperatures are expected to be in the 40s
throughout the period. The best chance for precipitation will be
late Tuesday through early Wednesday. Lower elevations west of
Rosebud County will have a 30% chance of precipitation with a
10-20% chance of getting >0.1 inches. Temperatures should be warm
enough to keep this as rain for the lower elevations.

There will continue to be a succession of waves through the late
week and weekend. These are not expected to bring much
precipitation. Monday will be the next chance at additional
precipitation with deterministic and ensemble systems indicating
another system moving through. Given this system is a week out, it
is hard to say how much precipitation it could bring. However,
the highest WPC cluster representing 20% of models is showing 0.25
inches of precipitation for Billings, and NBM is giving most of
the region a 20-30% chance for >0.2 inches, something we haven`t
seen in awhile. Torgerson

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds will be strong along the western foothills today with
locations such as KLVM, K6SO, and K1KM seeing gusts into the
40-45kt range. Winds should begin to die down throughout the
afternoon. Skies should clear out this morning becoming mostly
clear through the afternoon and evening. VFR conditions are
expected over the next 24 hours. Torgerson
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tdy Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 052 030/049 029/047 033/047 026/044 031/046 030/047
    0/N 02/W    10/B    31/B    01/B    11/B    11/B
LVM 047 032/048 028/049 031/043 026/043 028/045 028/046
    1/N 05/W    11/B    61/B    02/J    22/J    23/W
HDN 052 026/047 026/049 029/047 023/044 028/047 026/048
    1/B 02/W    20/B    32/W    01/B    11/B    11/B
MLS 049 023/044 026/046 028/044 022/041 026/043 026/044
    2/W 00/B    10/U    11/B    00/B    11/B    00/B
4BQ 049 026/048 028/049 030/044 024/046 027/044 027/046
    1/B 00/B    20/U    11/E    00/U    11/B    00/B
BHK 043 021/043 024/044 024/039 020/041 022/040 022/042
    2/W 00/B    10/U    01/E    00/U    01/B    00/B
SHR 051 024/049 024/049 026/045 021/046 024/045 023/047
    0/B 01/B    20/B    12/W    00/B    11/B    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings