Laurel, Montana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

647
FXUS65 KBYZ 200214
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
814 PM MDT Thu Jun 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm with a chance for strong thunderstorms each afternoon and
  evening through Saturday.

- Some locations may see highs in the low 90s today and Friday.
  The best chance is from Billings east along river valleys.

- Breezy conditions Saturday and Sunday with widespread gusts into
  the 30s mph possible.

- Much cooler and unsettled Saturday night into early next week
  with possible mountain snow.

&&

.UPDATE...

Updated precipitation and thunderstorm potential through tomorrow
morning. Best areas to see precipitation will be along the
Musselshell river valley east into the Miles City area through
late evening, but only looking at 15 to 35 percent probabilities
for measurable precipitation. Low precipitation chances develop
overnight mainly over the western foothills, continuing into
Friday morning. Can`t rule out an isolated thunderstorm mixed in
with this activity. Overnight lows tonight will be mainly in the
lower 60s. Chambers

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Through Friday night...

Temperatures were in the upper 70s to 80s, on their way to the low
90s for some locations with high pressure overhead today. Going
through the afternoon, expect isolated to widely scattered showers
and thunderstorms to develop over western areas as a shortwave
moves into the region in southwest flow. The showers and
thunderstorms will spread north and east through the evening,
decreasing overnight for most areas. Showers will continue to
affect far western areas through the overnight as shortwave energy
continues to stream in from the southwest. A few strong
thunderstorms are possible for western areas, and areas generally
north of Billings through the evening. With inverted-V soundings,
the main threat with strong thunderstorms is gusty winds. SPC has
a marginal risk for severe weather over portions of the area.
700mb temperatures of 12-14C over the southeast should limit
convection over the lower elevations there.

As a large upper trough pushes inland into the Pac NW, diffluent
SW flow, and additional shortwave energy will lift into the region
on Friday. At the surface, easterly winds will transport moisture
into the area. A surface low over southeast MT is expected to
lift north and east through the evening. Temperatures are forecast
to range from the 70s over the northwest to the low 90s over the
east. Thunderstorms look to develop over western areas during the
afternoon and evening, and over portions of southeast MT on the
north side of the aforementioned surface low, lifting off to the
north and east into the Dakotas. Some of the thunderstorms could
be strong to severe with MUCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg, deep layer shear
of 30-50 kts, and dewpoint temperatures nearing 60 degrees over
the far east. Main threats with the thunderstorms are large hail
and strong winds. SPC currently has a marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms over most of the area, with a slight risk near
Baker, with better conditions for severe thunderstorm development
into the Dakotas. Expect showers and thunderstorms to shift north
and east Friday night as the shortwave slowly shifts east. STP

Saturday through Thursday...

An active June pattern will continue into the beginning of next
week. A trough is forecast to dig in from the PNW Saturday into
Sunday bringing widespread chances of precipitation and cooler
temperatures to the entire region.

The SPC has areas of eastern MT in a Marginal (1/5) for the D3
convective outlook and it appears that this is due to the
potential for lingering storms from the night before. As the upper
level trough advects through western MT, there is a potential for
some isolated to widely scattered convection in eastern parts of
the CWA to linger into Saturday morning. 12z RAP forecast
hodographs at Baker, MT show a fairly classic veer-back-veer setup
and a deep effective inflow layer Saturday morning. If storms are
already ongoing in this area at this time this hodograph as well
as mid level lapse rates of nearly 9C/Km and MU-CAPE of 3600 J/Kg
should be plenty to sustain ongoing convection before it quickly
moves out of the forecast area.

The main story of the weekend will be well below average
temperatures. Saturday evening, a cold front will advect through
the entire CWA significantly dropping temperatures. As this front
will bring with it widespread precipitation and cloud cover, low
temps should reamin just a touch below the normal values for this
time of year. As we move into the day Sunday, with minimal
sunshine and continued CAA, high temps are forecast to be in the
low 60sF at best; which is roughly 20F below average region-wide.
With cold temperatures and synoptic precipitation the risk for
mountain snow will return on Sunday.

Naturally, there is still some spread in the snow levels on
Sunday, however, looking at the NBM 90% it still brings snow
levels down to 9kft. So even with conservative assessments, this
system will be able to bring snow down below Vista Point. With
this event still a few days out, I opted to just run with the
operational NBM snow levels which are at 7,500ft on Sunday
morning. Snow accumulations should be light by mountain standards
with the highest point of the pass (~10,500 ft) forecast to pick
up 4".

Towards mid-week a portion of the trough is expected to break off
and become a cutoff low over the four corners region potentially setting
up a Rex or `high over low` block. This will allow our temps to
rebound back to average by Wednesday with repeated chances for
some showers and storms as vort maxes continue to move along the
northern branch of the polar jet. WMR
&&

.AVIATION...

In general, VFR will prevail through the period. Isolated to
scattered showers will continue through late evening along the
northern portion of the forecast area with local MVFR conditions
near heavier precipitation cores. Overnight into Friday morning
expect isolated shower activity over the western mountains and
foothills, with possible light shower activity in and around KLVM
terminal. Chambers

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 060/086 056/077 048/062 043/070 049/077 053/078 054/085
    22/T    42/W    66/T    31/U    22/T    24/T    32/T
LVM 053/083 046/069 039/058 035/068 041/074 045/077 047/083
    34/T    63/T    68/T    32/T    22/T    24/T    22/T
HDN 059/088 056/080 048/062 041/071 048/078 053/079 052/085
    22/T    32/W    76/T    31/U    22/T    35/T    32/T
MLS 062/091 061/081 051/063 044/070 051/077 055/078 054/085
    32/T    32/W    55/T    31/U    33/T    45/T    42/T
4BQ 061/092 059/081 051/066 044/070 052/075 055/074 054/080
    22/T    10/U    33/T    31/U    34/T    45/T    42/T
BHK 060/089 058/079 051/063 043/068 048/072 051/073 051/078
    13/T    21/B    43/T    31/U    34/T    44/T    42/T
SHR 057/088 052/080 044/063 039/070 046/075 049/075 048/080
    11/U    11/U    46/T    32/T    23/T    46/T    43/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings