Columbia Falls, Montana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

136
FXUS65 KMSO 101959
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
159 PM MDT Tue Jun 10 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

-  Near-record daytime high temperatures today.

-  A few strong storms this afternoon and again Wednesday
   afternoon and evening.

-  Cooler late this week with daily afternoon showers and
   thunderstorms.

Well above-normal high temperatures are expected again today, a
few high temperature records may be tied or set.

An area of scattered thunderstorms in northwest MT and a second
area from Lemhi County ID into southwest MT, could produce a
strong storm or two. The main threat today will be gusty outflow
winds up to 40 mph.

Wednesday may start with a brief shower or crack of thunder from
Lemhi County ID into southwest MT as a weak system moves through
around daybreak. This system will set the stage for the rest of
the day. If clouds remain in this area, it will inhibit afternoon
thunderstorms which could become severe. A lack of clouds will
allow for afternoon heating and the potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms. Similar to today the main threat will be gusty
outflow winds, which if they attain severe status could gust 50 to
60+ mph. Moisture from east of the divide will also move into our
region allowing for brief but heavy showers in this same area.
Currently, the concern for flash flooding is low due to mid-level
winds that will likely rapidly move cells off to the northeast.
Keep a watch on the forecast in case these winds fail to develop
or training of multiple cells over the same location happens.

Thursday and Friday the region remains under southwest flow with
temperatures still 10 degrees above normal and afternoon
thunderstorms. Friday may end up being the best chance for region
wide thunderstorms as a short wave ejects off the broader Pacific
trough.

Long term there is a hint of a precipitation maker around the
17th. Thirty percent of the models depict a deeper trough with
widespread precipitation, mainly from the European Community
Ensemble Forecast System. The remainder of the models depict
westerly flow which typically is a drier flow at this time of
year. More to come on this system.

&&

.AVIATION...Hot temperatures with widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms this evening. Gusty winds to 40 mph with small hail
and briefly heavy rain are likely impacts from these storms.
Otherwise expect continued west-southwest flow at ridgetops in the
10-20 knot range. A weak disturbance will produce morning showers
on Wednesday south of I-90 followed by an increased chance for
afternoon showers and storms between 11/1900Z and 11/0100z that
are more likely to produce erratic gusts up to 60 mph, small
hail, and isolated heavy rainfall near terminals KSMN, KBTM, and
to a lesser extent KMSO and KHRF.

&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
ID...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Lower Hells
     Canyon/Salmon River Region...Orofino/Grangeville Region.

&&

$$