Butte-Silver Bow, Montana 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

553
FXUS65 KMSO 230703
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
103 AM MDT Mon Jun 23 2025

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

- Showers continue today, especially northwest Montana.

- Frost potential this morning southern areas/Divide.

- Warmer and drier on Tuesday.

- Isolated/scattered afternoon thunderstorm pattern Wednesday
  into next weekend.

Northwest flow today will lead to unstable conditions. A notable
disturbance is bringing an area of showers stretching from the
Idaho Panhandle into Northwest Montana. These showers will slowly
slide eastward this morning. Frost potential exists for the
central/southern Bitterroot Valley and valleys along the Divide
but much is dependent on how quickly clouds fill in this morning.
By this afternoon, enough instability remains for scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms, particularly in northwest
Montana.

By Tuesday, a weak ridge builds over the region but it is
embedded in a broader trough pattern. As a result, there will
still be some convection Tuesday afternoon, but we expect it will
be a bit subdued and mostly over the mountains. On Tuesday,
temperatures will also rebound to slightly above average for this
time of year and remain there for the rest of the week and into
this coming weekend.

Southwest flow dominates Wednesday through the coming weekend leading
to isolated/scattered thunderstorm coverage most afternoons.
There are no strong indicators of a few strong to severe
thunderstorms at this time, but depending on the timing of the
shortwaves that is possibility. At this point Thursday stands out
as a day with greater thunderstorm coverage potential compared to
other days.

There is decent agreement (80-90% probability) with ensemble
clusters for a return to hot daytime temperatures (10-15 degrees
above normal) by early next week (June 30-July 2).


&&

.AVIATION...Northwest flow will bring unstable conditions today. A
defined disturbance will bring considerable showers and mountain
obscurations, mainly north of US 12 this morning. Lowered ceilings
and reduced visibility is expected with the heavier showers.
Patchy morning fog is also anticipated where partial clearing has
occurred. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will continue
this afternoon, particularly in northwest Montana then dissipate
by sunset. Weak ridging builds in on Tuesday for warmer and drier
conditions with only limited afternoon convection.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...Frost Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for
     Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys.

ID...Frost Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for Eastern Lemhi
     County.

&&

$$