Springfield, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

146
FXUS63 KSGF 022330
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
630 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Confidence increasing in multiple rounds of heavy rainfall and
  potentially significant flooding late this week into the
  weekend, especially in south-central Missouri. Friday into
  Saturday look to be the most impactful days. A Flood Watch is
  in effect.

- A Slight (2 of 5) Risk of Severe Storms persists from
  Thursday evening into Friday night, especially southeast of
  the Interstate 44 corridor. Large hail will be the primary
  potential severe weather hazard.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Synoptic Pattern and Current Conditions:

Water vapor imagery depicts a deep trough over the western U.S.
with a potent short wave trough ejecting northeast through the
Upper Mississippi Valley. Surface low pressure is tracking
northeast through the Corn Belt with a cold front trailing south
from the low through western Missouri and into the Arklatex.
Ahead of the front, the risk for severe storms will persist
through late afternoon. See the Mesoscale Discussion above for
more details and reasoning on particular hazards.

Tonight:

That front will continue to shift east and southeast of the
Missouri Ozarks. By 12Z, the front will extend from the
Missouri Bootheel to the Little Rock area. Tonight largely looks
dry as weak surface high pressure builds in from the northwest.
The one exception may be locations near the Arkansas border as
isentropic upglide (305-310 K layer) overspreads the area after
09Z. This could result in a few light showers across far
southern Missouri (20-30% chance).

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Thursday and Thursday Night:

Short term ensembles show good agreement that a 850 mb front
will strengthen and lift north into south-central and
southeastern Missouri by 00Z on Friday. The 850 mb front will
then continue to slowly lift north Thursday night. This frontal
lifting scenario is supported as we become positioned beneath
the left-entrance region of an upper-level jet streak. This will
support increasing coverage of rain showers with scattered
thunderstorms also favored by afternoon as MUCAPE values
increase into the 500-1000 J/kg range (highest values south). We
could see a marginal severe hail risk develop by late afternoon
across far southern Missouri with that threat persisting into
Thursday night.

Rainfall amounts from Thursday into Thursday night do not look
overly concerning with HREF LPMM products indicating amounts
in the 0.25" to 0.75" range. HREF 90th percentile and max
values do approach 2.00" in some pockets, especially across
south-central Missouri. We will therefore leave the start time
of the Flood Watch intact as some localized flash flooding could
occur. Even if this worst case scenario was to occur, flash
flooding would largely be confined to typical low water
crossings.

Heavy Rainfall Setup Friday and Saturday:

Global ensembles remain consistent in depicting a pattern
similar to the Maddox Synoptic heavy rainfall scenario. This
includes a deep, slow moving upper-level trough, anonymously
moist low-level flow, and a quasi-stationary surface front. The
one difference from the Maddox Synoptic pattern will be that
strong wind shear will be present in the 850-300 mb layer.

Both the ECMWF and NAEFS products continue to indicate
precipitable water values and specific humidities near or
exceeding 30-year (1979-2009) climatological maxes. Integrated
vapor transport is also approaching maxes with thresholds for an
atmospheric river event (Gulf of America source region) being
met.

In the low-levels, there is still model variance regarding where
the frontal zone will set up. There is strong consensus that it
will shift north from Friday into Friday night as strong short
wave energy emerges across the southern Plains from a closed low
across the Desert Southwest. To complicate matters, thunderstorm
cold pools will also impact the eventual location of the front.

With this being said, our confidence remains high that areas
southeast of the I-44 corridor will see a significant amount
of rainfall from Friday into Saturday with an increasing risk
for flooding and flash flooding. Confidence decreases slightly
along the I-44 corridor given the uncertainties in frontal
position, however this region is still expected to receive
appreciable rainfall.

Potential Amounts and Impacts:

Understanding that the bulk of this event is still not in the
envelop of CAMs, the following values are almost exclusively
reliant on global deterministic models and ensembles. As
mentioned earlier, thunderstorm cold pools and smaller scale
features in general could have significant effects on eventual
rainfall amounts. With that being said, here are NBM percentiles
for 72-hour rainfall.

Most likely scenario (25th to 75th percentile):

SE KS/west-central MO: 1.50" to 4.00"
I-44 corridor: 2.50" to 5.50"
South-central MO: 4.50" to 7.50"

Localized amounts up to (90th percentile):

SE KS/west-central MO: 5.00"
I-44 corridor: 7.50"
South-central MO: 9.50"

Amounts that push the 75th to 90th percentile across south-central
Missouri would result in a significant flooding and flash flooding
threat. This includes significant rises on rivers with the potential
for levels getting into the Moderate Flood category. We have
included a Hydro section below to specifically discuss
expectations with rivers.

Note: Additional accumulation information including
probabilities of exceedance graphics can be found in our DSS
packet:

weather.gov/media/sgf/DssPacket.pdf

Severe Thunderstorm Potential Friday and Saturday:

A Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms will persist, especially on
Friday and Friday night across southern Missouri. The main potential
hazard will continue to be large hail given ample amounts of
elevated instability and deep layer shear. The eventual location of
that surface front and the amount of near-surface destabilization
will be big players regarding the potential for surface-based
convection and any sort of straight-line wind and/or tornado
threat. This will be a short-term forecast challenge.

Potential for Snow Late Saturday Night and Early Sunday Morning:

Global models track an upper level short wave trough out of the
southern Plains and through the Ozarks region. The combination of
surface temperatures in the 30s and rapidly cooling low/mid levels
will be supportive of snowflakes if precipitation can persist.
Accumulations would be very limited at best given warm ground
temperatures.

Much Cooler with Frost Potential Early Next Week:

Five wave charts and global ensembles indicate a northwesterly flow
setting up across the region. Below normal temperatures and dry
conditions will be the result. The potential for a frost/freeze
continues to increase for a few nights early next week. The coldest
night may be Monday night as Canadian high pressure builds south
into the Middle Mississippi Valley. Given that the growing season
has started, frost/freeze headlines appear likely.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 630 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

The storm system that brought the showers and storms to the area
early today has moved off to the east. Winds may remain gusty
very early this evening but will weaken and become variable
later this evening into tonight, then will become move east to
northeasterly on Thursday and could be gusty at times. Rain
chances will start to move from north to south Thursday morning
into Thursday afternoon. A few embedded thunderstorms will be
possible Thursday afternoon into the evening hours. MVFR
ceilings will be possible Thursday afternoon with lower
visibilities with any of the heavier showers and storms.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

River Expectations and Forecasts:

Abnormally Dry or Drought conditions exist across much of the
CWA as evidenced by below normal soil moisture and normal to
below normal streamflow. Despite the relatively dry antecedent
moisture conditions coming into this event, forecast rainfall
amounts will be enough to saturate soils and generate rises on
area waterways.

RFC forecasts are showing significant rises to many rivers in
the Flood Watch area. Locations along the Jacks Fork and Current
River are currently expected to reach Moderate flood stage.

Further north, the Gasconade River and some major tributaries
are also expected to exceed flood stage with the Big Piney
expected to reach Moderate Flood stage.

Further west, the James River is expected to rise approaching
or exceeding flood stage as well as the North fork White River.

Important Note: River Forecasts only include precipitation out
to 72 hours (Saturday morning) and additional accumulating
rainfall on Saturday may cause additional rises.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...Flood Watch from Thursday morning through Saturday evening for
     MOZ070-071-081>083-090>092-095>098-102>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Schaumann
LONG TERM...Schaumann
AVIATION...Wise
HYDROLOGY...Grout