Rolla, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

228
FXUS63 KSGF 110607
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
107 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Shower and thunderstorm chances (40-70%) this evening into
  tonight, especially northwest of Interstate 44. A few damaging
  wind gusts are possible along with localized flooding across
  southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. Damaging wind gusts
  of 50-60 mph, in addition to localized heavy rainfall will be
  the primary concerns.

- Hot and humid conditions persist for portions of the area this
  afternoon with highs in the lower 90s, with heat index values
  approaching 100 degrees.

- Daily rain chances (30-50%) persist through early next week
  with temperatures returning to near normal for mid August.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Current Conditions and Synoptic Pattern: Water vapor and upper
air analysis continues to show a upper level trough across the
northern Plains with the ridge losing its grip on the area. The
atmosphere was becoming increasingly unstable and high in
moisture with a PW value measured at 1.63in this morning on the
sounding. The synoptic front was analyzed from around Wichita to
Kansas City with a myriad of outflow boundaries across southern
Missouri. An area of showers and storms was ongoing southeast
of Springfield in an area of uncapped instability and lift from
a previous boundary. Localized heavy rainfall rates and
lightning are occuring with this activity. Further west, the
airmass was still likely capped however satellite shows strong
heating and a tight instability gradient exists across
southeast Kansas into southwest Missouri. Lastly, outside of
rainfall, temps have reached the lower 90s with dewpoints in the
upper 60s to lower 70s.

This Afternoon through Tonight: A complex and messy convective
evolution is expected with strong moisture convergence likely
to break the cap within the next few hours across southeast
Kansas into western Missouri along those boundaries. This is
supported well by the 12z HREF data. While instability and
moisture is high, wind shear is low which should keep the severe
threat to a marginal level with wet microburst the main concern
(wind gusts to 60mph). Storm motions will be slow therefore
heavy rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour could occur which
could cause localized flooding. The stream levels across the
area are lower than they have been and antecedent conditions are
dry therefore we have only gone with a Flood Watch for Bourbon
County Kansas at this time. Its uncertain how far east and south
storms move tonight (especially after 9pm). Most guidance takes
storms to the I-44 corridor and as far east as Highway 65 but
not much else south and east of there. Precip chances will
continue to be refined through the evening. Storm total rainfall
amounts vary however the 12z HREF data supports pockets of 1-3
inches of rainfall through tonight along and northwest of I-44.
Some areas may see little if any rainfall depending on how
widespread the storm coverage is. There could be isolated
instances where a storm sits over a location and produces 4-5
inches of rainfall however confidence in this scenario is low
and extremely difficult to pinpoint where it may occur, if at
all.

Storms could continue to develop overnight in southeast Kansas,
closer to the front and low level jet. Additionally an MCS is
expected to move through southern Kansas tonight and could move
into the area by early Monday morning. This MCS should be on a
weakening trend given the loss of instability and the potential
for our area to be worked over by this evenings storms. We don`t
have a lot of confidence in that MCS therefore additional
updates are likely tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Short term guidance suggests that some dry time will occur in
between any lingering morning activity and afternoon scattered
redevelopment. The MCS could leave behind an MCV or outflow
boundary that kicks off afternoon storms. Otherwise it will
likely remain hot and humid with highs around 90.

Tuesday through Friday: Ensemble data continues to suggest that
shortwaves will likely continue to move through the area which
will keep pops in the 20-50% range through Thursday. There is
then a signal that upper level ridging develops towards the end
of the week. Temps should remain closer to average next week
given precip chances with increasing temps by the end of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Convective showers with intermittent lightning are scattered
across SW MO, with a stratiform rain region trailing behind.
(Stratiform rain region is still observing lightning, though not
as frequently as deep convection.) Numerous outflow boundaries
have been left behind from earlier convection, with the
strongest boundary splayed roughly from the BBG terminal NNE
into central Missouri, just east of the SGF terminal. This
particular boundary is serving as a continued focal point for
new storm development, though the complex overall has been
displaying a weakening trend as it continues moving eastward.

Winds turn from NNE ahead of the boundary to westerly behind
it, but will return to southerly once the storms move to the
east. Low-level jet streak 25-30 kts is oriented SW to NE across
the central Plains, but is expected to weaken through the TAF
period, so while marginal shear exists outside of thunderstorms,
generally shear is too low to include in TAFs at this time.

There is still a lot of uncertainty in how conditions will
evolve at any one location on Monday, but a decaying convective
complex will move towards the area in the morning hours,
reaching western Missouri around 12Z. Confidence is not high
that the complex will remain organized, or even persist long
enough to reach our area, hence prob30 for SGF and JLN. Best
chances for scattered thunderstorms is further north and west.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for KSZ073.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Camden