Republic, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

528
FXUS63 KSGF 082341
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
641 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- No measurable rain chances in the forecast through this week
  and minimal chances (<10%) for rainfall next week.

- Warming trend into mid-week, with a return of temperatures
  into the upper 70s to middle 80s through this weekend (5 to
  10 degrees above normal).

- Fire weather conditions will be monitored as very dry air and
  no significant rain are expected over the next 2 weeks which
  will continue to dry fuels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

This Afternoon-Tonight: Surface high pressure continues to hold
across the region this afternoon, supporting light winds and dry
weather. Highs this afternoon have ranged from lower 70s (east)
to upper 70s (west). Meanwhile, the dry airmass has featured
dewpoints in the 30s. This has spawned relative humidity values
as low as 20-25%, with the lowest across portions of southeast
Kansas into southwest Missouri. Fire fuels will need to be
monitored closely as a prolonged dry period continues. In
general, the fire weather risk has remained limited given light
winds.

For tonight, radiational cooling supports lows dipping into the
40s areawide. Portions of the Eastern Ozarks will likely see
lows in the middle/upper 30s, though no frost is expected given
the dry air in place.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Wednesday-Saturday: A warming trend builds into the area through
mid to late week as mid-level heights increase from west to
east. This return of warm temperatures is anywhere from 5 to 15
degrees above normal for early to mid October. Highs by
Thursday and Friday reach well into the 80s for most of the
area, including the potential for record highs across portions
of the area (see Climate Section). EFI captures the extent of
the anomalous warmth across the region, with the warmest highs
expected on Saturday afternoon with most of the area in the
middle to upper 80s, perhaps near 90 out west. Meanwhile, the
prolonged dry period continues into the weekend ahead with no
rain chances in the forecast. This setup will further enhance
fire weather conditions across the area in addition to the
ongoing drought.

Sunday-Early Next Week: By Sunday, ensemble guidance suggest a
breakdown of the ridge with an associated trough and frontal
passage. The magnitude and timing of these features remain a bit
uncertain and will best be resolved over the coming days. The
initial thought is a dry front is progged to slide through the
area on Sunday, setting the stage for a large spread in
temperatures from north to south. The depth and timing of the
cooler airmass is further seen in the NBM variance (10-15 degree
spread between the 25th-75th percentiles).

Nonetheless, confidence is increasing in at least some cooler
temperatures into early next week. LREF guidance hints at this
being a more substantial cooldown then prior early Fall
cooldown. NBM spread still varies 10 degrees on potential highs
into next week, anywhere from lower 60s to lower 70s. If the
much cooler scenario plays out, there will be an increasing
focus on the potential for frost by next Tuesday and/or
Wednesday. Continue to monitor the forecast for updates. While
we may get cooler into next week, there remains no evidence of
any rain chances through at least mid-October. Ensembles
continue to highlight <10% probabilities for >=0.1 inches of
rain in any 24 hour period. It`s plausible this pattern remains
in place through the end of October.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 640 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the entire TAF period at all
sites. Light winds will pivot from NE`ly to SE`ly during the
00-08Z timeframe. Otherwise, skies will remain mostly clear,
with some mid-level light smoke/haze noted to be filtering
through the area.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Today through Saturday (October 7-12):

Rain chances: Less than 5%. Almost all models keep the area
completely dry this week.

Humidity: Dropping to 15-25% today and Wednesday, then 20-35%
each day through Saturday (highest over the Mark Twain Natl
Forest).

Wind: Light for most of the week. Breezy out of the south Friday
and Saturday, but models support speeds of less than 20 mph.

Next week (October 13-19):

Rain chances: Drier than normal with limited opportunities for
significant rainfall. <10% chance of seeing more than 0.1" of
rain on any of the days next week.

Humidity: Majority of models favor minimum RH values around or
lower than 30% each afternoon.

Wind: No noteworthy model agreement on any stronger wind
events. <10% chance of seeing winds over 20 mph.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Tue Oct 8 2024

Record High Temperatures:

October 11:
KJLN: 91/2020

October 12:
KSGF: 88/1899
KJLN: 91/1978
KVIH: 87/1962
KUNO: 87/1975

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Price
FIRE WEATHER...Titus
CLIMATE...Perez