Republic, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

799
FXUS63 KSGF 222338
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
538 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fog development is likely off the Ozark Plateau tonight into
  Tuesday morning. There is a 40 to 70% chance visibilities
  drop below 1/2 mile for these locations.

- Steady warming trend with record highs possible mid- to late
  week. Clouds may result in temperatures being a little cooler
  than forecasted.

- Signal emerging for fog/drizzle to occur again Wednesday
  morning, though additional details are limited.

- Gusty winds return for Christmas Eve and Christmas, with
  sustained southwest winds of 15-20 mph and gusts up to 20-30
  mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1251 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Synoptic Overview:

Quasi-zonal flow aloft will give way to broad upper-level
ridging this evening into Tuesday. Upper-air analysis also indicates
a subtle shortwave impulse over the Plains translating east
into the Mississippi Valley. At the surface, the associated surface
low was spinning over northern Nebraska and South Dakota with
its attendant warm front extending to the southeast.

Warm and moist advection will occur this afternoon as the ridge
deepens and heights rise. The stratus deck that was blanketing
much of Missouri and eastern Kansas this morning continues to
break up the afternoon with the clearing line steadily pushing
east through the region. The modestly breezy winds this morning
will wind down throughout the afternoon and evening coincident
with the warm air advection.

Fog Tonight:

Clouds will build in again overnight as low-level saturation
increases. With continued moisture advection, fog development
appears likely. The most favorable areas for fog will be off the
Ozark Plateau where temperatures will be cooler; particularly,
locations across western Missouri and eastern Kansas may have
the best shot at seeing dense fog as they experience the longest
period of radiational cooling (clear skies). Indeed, 12Z HREF
probabilities of visibilities less than 1/2 mile are highest
(40-70%) are highest for these areas.

The one fly in the ointment with all of this is that models have
struggled mightily in handling the moisture advection so far
today; that is, they have been too quick to advect moisture
northward, which is a common problem for our forecast area. The
very latest model runs do seem to be slowly catching on,
however, so perhaps the 00Z data will prove more useful in
decision-making.

Even Warmer Tuesday:

Temperatures will continue to climb on Tuesday as the
aforementioned ridge builds and mid-level heights rise. NBM
percentile data support highs in the mid 60s to low 70s
areawide. These temperatures are 20 to 25 degrees above the
climatological average. We`ll have to watch to see if or how
long any morning fog hangs around which could muck up the
temperature forecast. Regardless, well above-normal temperatures
are here.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 1251 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Temperatures:
The upper level ridge continues to build over the central CONUS
midweek, with 850mb temperatures between 16C-18C on Wednesday,
and up to 19.5C Thursday. This will lead to potential record-
breaking temperatures in the low to mid 70s both days (see
climate section below for current records). Confidence in these
temperatures is medium-to-high, as the ECMWF MaxT EFI maxes out
to 0.99-1.00 Thursday, and 0.9-0.95 Wednesday and Friday,
highlighting the anomalous nature for this time of year.
Additionally, the NBM interquartile spread only highlights a 3-4
degree spread between the 25th and 75th percentiles Wednesday
and Thursday, with the 25th percentile currently tying the
current record (74 degrees) on Thursday. It should be noted that
moisture return/cloud cover will be a large determining factor
in how warm we get (and if we tie/break current record
temperatures). Higher res models are depicting some low-level
moisture filtering into the area, which could increase the cloud
cover, bring fog/drizzle potential, and keep temperatures
several degrees lower than what we`re currently forecasting.
Confidence in the exact details remains low at this point as
we`re still ironing out the mesoscale details that would
influence these differences - regardless, it`ll be a warm
Christmas holiday here in the Ozarks.

Drizzle potential:
With moisture returning to the area, some patchy drizzle/fog
will be possible Wednesday morning, however confidence in any
widespread dense fog remains low at this time. Winds will be a
factor in where/if this can play out - currently, the better
chances for any fog development looks to be over the eastern
Ozarks where wind speeds remain light overnight. By Christmas
morning, winds increase enough to hinder any widespread dense
fog, however we`ll keep an eye on things to see if anything
changes.

Winds:
Another feature for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day will be
windy conditions, with sustained southwesterly winds between
15-20mph and gusts up to 20-30mph (higher end of that range west
of Highway 65). Minimum relative humidities look to remain in
the 50-60% range, so we`re not too concerned about any fire
danger at this time.

Next Weekend and beyond:
An upper level trough then looks to pivot southeast out of
British Columbia towards the end of the week, with the
associated upper low traversing towards the Great Lakes region.
This should drag a cold front through the area Saturday night
into Sunday, however there still remains many discrepancies
regarding precipitation potential (current pops in the 20-30%
range) and temperatures (large interquartile spreads). We`ll
have to keep an eye out on how things pan out as we continue
through this week to get a better idea of potential outcomes.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 531 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

IFR ceilings will develop later tonight and persist into late
Tuesday morning at KSGF and KJLN. GLAMP probabilities for IFR
ceilings at KSGF and KJLN are in the likely to definite range,
while KBBG has only chance probabilities.

Tuesday afternoon and evening may see MVFR ceilings (GLAMP
probabilities chance to likely), but there is less certainty on
cloud coverage in this time range.

Look for LLWS at all sites tonight into early Tuesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 515 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Record Warm Maximum Temperatures:

December 23:
KSGF: 72/1982
KJLN: 73/1982
KVIH: 68/1904
KUNO: 68/1996

December 24:
KSGF: 74/1955
KJLN: 75/2021
KVIH: 72/2021
KUNO: 74/1955

December 25:
KSGF: 74/1889
KJLN: 72/2016
KVIH: 71/1971
KUNO: 74/2021

December 26:
KSGF: 68/2008
KJLN: 75/2021
KVIH: 72/1971
KUNO: 73/1971

Record Warm Minimum Temperatures:

December 24:
KSGF: 54/1889
KJLN: 58/2021
KVIH: 52/1982
KUNO: 54/2023

December 25:
KSGF: 58/1889
KJLN: 52/2016
KVIH: 46/2019
KUNO: 47/2021

December 26:
KSGF: 54/1942
KJLN: 56/1954
KVIH: 55/1971
KUNO: 50/2019

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Didio
LONG TERM...Didio
AVIATION...Titus
CLIMATE...Camden