Republic, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

015
FXUS63 KSGF 142004
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
304 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Heat Advisory has been issued for counties primarily along
  and west of Highway 65 for heat indices up to 106 degrees from
  12 PM Friday through 8 PM Monday. The advisory may need to be
  expanded in future forecast updates.

- For the long term period, expect the temperatures to cool down
  into the 80s by next week by mid-week. Rain returns on
  Tuesday, but accumulations will generally be less than an inch
  and the mostly dry pattern will continue.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

A dying MCS is moving through Iowa and northern Missouri this
afternoon bringing a few cirrus clouds our way. Otherwise,
mostly fair weather cumulus out there today as we sit just to
the south of a warm front draped west to east across central
Missouri. Highs will reach the low to mid 90s this afternoon
with dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s which will keep RH
values in the 35-45% range. Winds will remain variable through
the rest of the day. Skies will be mostly clear tonight with
lows staying warm in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Friday-Monday: Mid-level high pressure starts to strengthen and
move itself east to the Central Plains region tomorrow. This
will cause the surface gradient to tighten just a bit for our
Kansas counties and our far southwestern Missouri counties.
Expect southerly winds to be breezy tomorrow and through the
weekend gusting up to 15 mph at times. Skies will be mostly
sunny as we sit under high pressure. This ridge will act like a
heat dome this weekend bringing in hot temperatures. Highs will
be in the mid to upper 90s through Monday with heat indices
around 95-105 degrees with localized higher values. Right now,
we have the highest confidence in areas primarily along and west
of Highway 65 reaching our Heat Advisory criteria from Friday to
Monday. The criteria is to have heat indices near 100 degrees
for four or more consecutive days. Model guidance has been
favoring the higher dewpoints which has been incorrect this week
as well as temperatures being a degree or two cooler than
observations. Therefore, we will have to monitor how close those
eastern counties get to criteria because if dewpoints stay in
the 50s while temperatures soar into the mid 90s, this will
affect the heat indices and they may not reach heat advisory
criteria. We will have to monitor how close the eastern portion
gets to the 100-105 degrees heat index mark and that area may
be added to the advisory in future forecast updates.

Heat Safety: Be sure to check the NWS Heat Risk for your area
as it does shows some areas of Major (3/4) this weekend. Major
indicates it`s a level 3 out of 4 for impactful heat risk which
means the heat will affect anyone without cooling/hydration and
especially those who are sensitive to heat. Also use Wet Bulb
Global Temperature if participating in any outdoor activities as
that can be more useful than Heat Index when considering heat
stress for athletes and outdoor workers.

Tuesday-Wednesday: There`s good news ahead for us as it appears
we`ll get a break from the heat for a little bit next week. A
cold front will move through the area Tuesday into Wednesday.
Our chances for rain increase as well starting Tuesday morning.
Right now, we have a 20-30% for rain with the highest chance
(30%) occurring Wednesday afternoon. Clouds, rain, and weak cold
air advection will keep us in the upper 80s to lower 90s on
Wednesday. This isn`t a huge relief, but it will be a nice break
in the hot and dry weather pattern that we`ll experience this
weekend.

Lastly, unfortunately the rain that we receive next week won`t
accumulate enough to pull us out of a drought. The latest
drought update came out today and most of southern Missouri is
in a D0 (abnormally dry) with a small area of D1 (moderate
drought) over Barry and Stone counties. Model guidance is
only showing a 20-30% chance of our area getting 0.25" of rain
next week. For the long term period, expect the temperatures to
cool down a bit next week, but low-end precipitation chances to
continue.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

VFR through the period with winds remaining variable through
the rest of the day. By late tomorrow morning, southwesterly
winds will start to increase gusting up to 15 knots especially
over far southwestern Missouri.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory from noon Friday to 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ073-
     097-101.
MO...Heat Advisory from noon Friday to 8 PM CDT Monday for MOZ055-
     056-066>069-077>080-088>090-093>095-101>104.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soria
LONG TERM...Soria
AVIATION...Soria