Republic, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

169
FXUS63 KSGF 232336
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
536 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy drizzle/fog will be possible again at times this
  evening into Wednesday morning.

- Record highs in the lower to middle 70s are expected for at
  least some of the days today through Saturday. Clouds may
  result in temperatures being a little cooler than forecasted
  at times.

- Gusty winds return for Christmas Eve and Christmas, with
  sustained southwest winds of 15-20 mph and gusts up to 20-30
  mph.

- 15-30% rain chances southeast of I-44 Saturday night into
  Sunday will precede a cooler and drier airmass that moves in
  early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 230 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Current water vapor imagery depicts very rounded flow across the
CONUS as moisture streams up and around a longwave ridge/mid-
level high pressure system across the southern CONUS. While
heights are for the most part lower, the shape of this pattern
looks more like something out of summer. Near the surface, a
cold front is analyzed across north KS/MO, stretching up into
the Great Lakes. Low-level stratus are noted along this front.
A pseudo warm front is noted on visible satellite imagery as a
break in clouds. This feature is surging northward through our
CWA. In the wake of this boundary, morning low-level cloud
streets are starting to dissipate.


Record highs already achieved in some places today:

As the clouds clear, solar heating and mixing of warmer air
aloft has already led to some broken records today. As of 1 PM,
Springfield briefly reached 72 F, which breaks the previous
record of 71 F. West Plains is currently at 70 F, breaking its
previous record of 67 F.

This result is less than surprising as our 12Z sounding recorded
an 850 mb temperature of 16-16.5 C, which is 3 degrees higher
than data from any SGF balloon launch on Dec. 23rd. Continue to
expect high temperatures in the lower to middle 70s today (maybe
closer to the upper 60s across central Missouri where clouds
are holding on).


Patchy drizzle/fog possible again at times tonight:

Behind the aforementioned pseudo warm front, unprecedented
moisture for this time of year is also streaming into the area.
Dewpoints are currently in the upper 50s to lower 60s, which are
also well above the record for this time of year according to
our balloon launch data (records are around the lower 50s). As a
result of this moisture, a mix of low-level clouds, drizzle,
and fog have occurred during the nighttime hours. This is
expected again this evening, tonight, and into Wednesday morning
as temperatures cool to near the dewpoint.

The best signal for drizzle looks to be in an arc from Kansas
City, down through the Lebanon/Rolla/Vichy ares, and into south-
central Missouri this evening. This is where lift along the
frontal boundaries will be maximized. While drizzle is more
likely early this evening, as we go overnight, RAP and HREF data
suggest some very weak MUCAPE, which may result in more
scattered light showery activity. Either way, some light
precipitation is possible in these areas through tonight
(15-20% chance).

Additionally, patchy dense fog is likely within the same areas
as last night--mainly west-central Missouri and the eastern
Ozarks (50-80% chance of less than half mile visibility
according to HREF/REFS). A Dense Fog Advisory may then be issued
later today for these areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Record highs continue to be forecasted through Saturday:

With records already being broken today, the forecast ahead
continues to expect some records being broken, possibly over
multiple days in a row as the longwave ridge continues to
hold its position and modestly amplify. The Extreme Forecast
Index for maximum temperatures is capped out at 1.00 (the
highest value allowed) through Saturday. Additionally, NBM
probabilities show widespread 60-80% chances to exceed 74 F each
day (which is generally the record high threshold across the
area). Coinciding record warm minimum temperatures are also
expected as the greater moisture keeps nighttime temperatures in
the upper 50s to lower 60s (records range from the mid-40s to
mid-50s). See the Climate section below for specific details
from each site each day.


Gusty winds for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day:

With lee cyclogenesis forecast across the Plains as strong
upper-level flow moves over the Rockies, surface pressure
gradients across our area will respond with breezy conditions
over Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Expect winds between 10-20
mph with gusts up to 20-30 mph during the daytimes, and calmer
winds between 5-10 mph during the nighttimes.


15-30% rain chances Saturday night into Sunday morning:

As the age old saying goes, "all amplified waves must break".
That`s actually not an age-old saying, for the case this
weekend, it`s true. Behind the amplifying ridge, an energetic
trough is progged to traverse the northern CONUS over the
weekend. There`s still a good bit of uncertainty in its exact
behavior due to a closed low developing off the coast of
California (models dislike closed lows), but the surface pattern
is generally pretty certain with a cold front dropping through.

As the cold front moves through, Saturday night into Sunday,
rain chances have increased to 15-30% southeast of I-44. As
previously mentioned, there`s some uncertainty in the exact
behavior which is leading to the low chances. The trough
progression could be quicker or slower which would change the
position and timing of rain chances. There is a 25% scenario of
thunderstorm potential, and a 15% scenario of being completely
dry. The other 60% is rain chances somewhere across our area
Saturday night into Sunday, but with the most agreement
southeast of I-44.


Cooler and drier air mass moves into the region early next week:

Following the cold front passage, cooler and drier weather is
expected to move in. The NBM is pretty confident in highs in the
40s Sunday, and in the 30s Monday with lows in the 30s Saturday
night, and the upper teens to lower 20s Sunday night.
Furthermore, the strong cold air advection should bring
increased winds. Currently, winds are in the 15-20 mph range
with gusts up to 20-30 mph. Afternoon relative humidity values
are already forecasts below 30% this far out. In general, winds
increase the closer we get, and afternoon relative humidity
values decrease. This may result in some fire weather concerns
Sunday and Monday, but time will tell as the system gets closer.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 528 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Some uncertainty on low level moisture amounts decreases
confidence at all TAF sites tonight. Currently forecasting VFR
conditions through the TAF period, but GLAMP guidance shows
around a 30% chance of MVFR visibilities at KSGF and KJLN
tonight with fog. Chances at KBBG are less than 20%. Have left
that out of the forecast for now. GLAMP guidance shows unlikely
potential for ceilings to drop below VFR at all TAF sites.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 230 AM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Record High Temperatures:

December 23:
KSGF: 72/1982
KJLN: 73/1982
KVIH: 68/1904
KUNO: 68/1996

December 24:
KSGF: 74/1955
KJLN: 75/2021
KVIH: 72/2021
KUNO: 74/1955

December 25:
KSGF: 74/1889
KJLN: 72/2016
KVIH: 71/1971
KUNO: 74/2021

December 26:
KSGF: 68/2008
KJLN: 75/2021
KVIH: 72/1971
KUNO: 73/1971

Record Warm Low Temperatures:

December 24:
KSGF: 54/1889
KJLN: 58/2021
KVIH: 52/1982
KUNO: 54/2023

December 25:
KSGF: 58/1889
KJLN: 52/2016
KVIH: 46/2019
KUNO: 47/2021

December 26:
KSGF: 54/1942
KJLN: 56/1954
KVIH: 55/1971
KUNO: 50/2019

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Price
LONG TERM...Price
AVIATION...Titus
CLIMATE...Wise