Ozark, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

908
FXUS63 KSGF 130448
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1048 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably warm temperatures will continue to occur across the
  area through much of this week through this weekend.

- A line of showers and maybe a few thunderstorms will move east
  across the region Wednesday morning into the afternoon hours
  (60-90% chance). No severe or flooding risk will occur with
  this activity.

- Monitoring another potential storm system maybe as early as
  late this weekend and early next week. Uncertainty remains
  high with the system including exact timing and rainfall
  amounts for the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

Temperatures currently range from the upper 50s across central
Missouri to the upper 60s across extreme southeastern Kansas and
far southwestern Missouri this afternoon. Mostly sunny skies
are occurring as just a few passing high clouds move over the
region. Winds are currently out of the east to southeast this
afternoon generally around 10mph.

Winds will increase slightly out of the southeast this evening
into Wednesday morning. Wind gusts up to 20 to 25 mph will be
possible at times. Lows tonight into Wednesday morning will
range from the upper 30s across portions of the eastern Ozarks
to the upper 40s across extreme southeastern Kansas and far
western Missouri.

An upper level trough will continue to move east into and across
the central Plains tonight and into and across the region
Wednesday into Wednesday night. An associated cold front will
also move west to east across the area during the day on
Wednesday. Showers and some embedded thunderstorms will
develop ahead of the cold front and upper level trough and will
begin to move into the area from west to east early Wednesday
morning and will push out of the area by Wednesday evening. This
activity will be more in a band and will not last overly long
for any given location. Some weak MUCAPE will develop ahead of
the front west of I-49 but will weaken further to the east but
will not dissipate entirely. The better lift and upper level
support will also be along and northwest of I-44. Coverage
with this activity will be along and northwest of I-44 and will
decrease to the southeast as the system moves east into the
weaker instability. Rainfall amounts will range from a few
hundredths of an inch across south central Missouri to one
quarter to one half of an inch of rainfall across extreme
southeastern Kansas and west central Missouri.

Some lift will also spread north across eastern Arkansas into
southeastern Missouri Wednesday morning into the afternoon hours
in a region of warm air advection. Scattered showers and a few
storms will be possible is this activity and could clip portions
of far south central Missouri but overall the better chances
with this warm air advection activity will remain southeast of
the area. The rain will end from west to east across the area by
the early evening hours Wednesday. Some low level moisture and
clouds could linger behind the main band of rain into Wednesday
evening especially across central Missouri closer to the surface
low. Some patchy drizzle will be possible as lift from the low
occurs within the area of low level clouds.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

Highs will warm into the upper 50s to the lower 60s on Thursday
behind the front. Lows Thursday night into Friday morning will
cool into the lower to middle 30s across much of the area. An
upper level ridge will move over the region late this week into
the weekend returning highs to the middle to upper 60s to the
area.

The ensemble model members are still showing an upper level
trough moving onto the west Coast this weekend then digging to
the south across the southwestern U.S. There are still a few
model members bringing rain into the area by Sunday, but overall
the majority of the model members are trending to the slower
solution bringing rain chances to the area early next week.
There still remains some differences in the exact track of the
system between the model members as the trough moves east across
the region early next week. The exact track will impact
rainfall amounts and timing.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1048 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024

VFR conditions will continue overnight with scattered to broken
high clouds. Surface winds will remain out of the southeast with
low level wind shear conditions developing around Joplin.

A surface front will then move east across southern Missouri on
Wednesday with a broken line of showers and perhaps a few
thunderstorms occurring along the front. MVFR and brief IFR
conditions can be expected with this activity. Surface winds
will shift to the southwest with the passing front.

An upper level low will then pass across central Missouri
Wednesday evening. This will keep the potential for MVFR
ceilings going. The highest probabilities for MVFR will occur
around SGF as surface winds turn northwest and induce upslope
flow along the Ozark Plateau.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Schaumann