Ozark, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

518
FXUS63 KSGF 221126
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
526 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend begins today with highs through the week in the
  40s and 50s and lows from the mid 30s to 40s.

- An unsettled period will begin Monday and continue through the
  week with nearly daily rain chances. Highest chances will
  occur in the Monday night to Tuesday night time frame(30-80%)
  with the highest probabilities along and south of the I-44
  corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery
and upper level analysis show a broad area of northwest flow
over the CONUS from the northern high plains into the southeast
U.S. A ridge axis over the high plains was beginning to lose
amplitude as an upper level wave was pushing east across the
northern Rockies. Another storm system was still off the west
coast. Surface high pressure has shifted to the east of the area
and southerly winds have developed on the western side of the
surface ridge. Temperatures were ranging from the mid 20s to the
low 30s as of 1 am.

For today: Upper level ridge axis continues to flatten out with
a more westerly flow developing over the area aloft in response
to the upper shortwave tracking into the northern plains. Ahead
of this low level warm advection will ramp up behind the high
pressure to the east of us and ahead of the low pressure to our
west. Will likely see some gusty southerly winds develop during
the day today. This will help us to begin a warming trend with
highs ranging from the mid 40s to low 50s today.

Tonight: Cloud cover will begin to increase over the area,
especially after midnight in advance of the next storm system.
The main initial shortwave will track north of the area into the
upper Mississippi valley, however a secondary more southerly
wave will begin to deepen over the southern high plains. Low
level warm advection and moisture advection will continue. Lows
are expected to be from the low 30s to around 40.

Monday: As that southern wave shifts east, a frontal zone will
begin to set up from a low over TX into southwest MO.
Low end precipitation chances will develop along this frontal
zone late in the day(15-30%). Highs will be in the mid 40s to
low 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 200 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

Monday night into Wednesday rain chances: Precipitation chances
will begin to ramp up on Monday night(30-70%) with that frontal
zone from southwest to northeast over the CWA. The best rain
chances will be along and south of the I-44 corridor. Synoptic
scale lift will increase as the upper shortwave approaches from
the west on Tuesday into Tuesday night. MU CAPES mainly remain
south of the area and will mainly be showery across the area
with the thunderstorm chances remaining to our south. Wouldn`t
be surprised to see an isolated lightning strike, but for now
am keeping this to our south. Along and north of I-44, amounts
from a tenth to half inch of rain will be possible with a half
inch to just over an inch for south and east of the corridor.
The good news is that temperature profiles will be warm enough
for the precipitation to remain all rain with no wintry weather
types expected.

Unsettled weather continues beyond Christmas day: The upper
pattern remains very active through the week with rain chances
continuing on Thurday and Friday, with the potential of clearing
out during the day on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 524 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

For the 12z TAFS, high pressure has shifted off to the east and
low pressure was developing to our west. This will bring an
increase in southerly winds today and tonight with some gusts
during the afternoon in the 20 to 25 kt range. Mostly clear
conditions are expected through the afternoon, but an increase
in mid and high level clouds will occur tonight. VFR conditions
are expected through the period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg