Lee's Summit, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

456
FXUS63 KEAX 012242
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
542 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Smoky/hazy skies through Monday.

- Warm and humid conditions continue through Monday.
  Temperatures peak on Monday with highs expected to range in
  the upper 80s.

- Strong to severe storms possible Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 224 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025

Hazy skies expected to continue into Monday with smoke from
wildfires in Canada. Northerly flow on the east side of a ridge
moving into the central U.S. will allow smoke to persist through the
day today and into Monday morning. As the ridge axis moves into our
area Monday and winds begin to shift to the west, this will allow
the greater concentrations of smoke to be pushed farther east. There
may be some impacts to groups sensitive to slightly lessened air
quality mainly for northern MO.

Warm and humid conditions will continue today and tomorrow as the
aforementioned ridge continues to approach the area. Skies remain
mostly clear, with the exception of smoke, today and tomorrow due to
broad-scale subsidence associated with the ridge. This will allow
high temperatures to climb into the mid 80s for today. Tomorrow high
temperatures are expected to be a few degrees warmer than today as a
surface high pushes farther east and our winds shift to the south.
Highs for tomorrow are anticipated to range in the upper 80s across
the area. Probabilistic ensembles suggest areas near St. Joseph,
Maryville, and Moberly have the best chances (60%-70%) to see a 90
degree day.

Late Monday into Tuesday, a trough and its associated cold front
move through north-central U.S. and will merge with a shortwave from
the southwest U.S. as it moves over the area. Tuesday morning a few
strong to severe storms are possible with a 35-45 kt LLJ nosing into
the warm sector. The low level jet will increase instability and
shear over the area making it a more favorable environment for
strong storms. A decent cap could keep storms elevated as they move
into our area. Hail will likely be the main threat with strong to
damaging winds as a secondary threat. The second round is
anticipated Tuesday afternoon with the passage of the cold front.
This will provide the lift needed for showers and storms. Given the
35-45 kts of bulk shear which will aid in storm organization and
MUCAPE values of 2,000-2,500 J/kg which suggest strong updraft
potential the main threats look to be quarter-sized hail. DCAPE
values exceeding 1,000 J/kg point to the potential for damaging
winds. Taking a look at the hydro aspect, the deterministic model
consensus is that PWATs range from 1.5-2 inches which is above the
90th percentile for climatology. This suggests the potential for
efficient rain-producing storms. StormTotalQPF suggests roughly 2-3
inches of rain for this event. If storms begin to train or
backbuild, there could be some flooding concerns. This agrees with
WPC placing majority of our area in a slight risk for a Day 3
Excessive Rainfall Outlook.

Temperatures behind the cold front will decrease bringing us below
normal for this time of year. Wednesday and Thursday highs range in
the 70s. Extended guidance suggests an unsettled pattern for the
second half of next week with a few shortwaves moving through the
area providing multiple rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 542 PM CDT Sun Jun 1 2025

VFR conds are expected thru the TAF pd...skies will be mainly
clr thru 17Z-18Z aft which sct high clouds are expected. Winds
will be lgt and vrb to begin the pd before becmg southerly
around 5kts aft 04Z. Winds will then pick up out of the south
btn 17Z-18Z to 10-15kts with gusts to 20-25kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...73