Lee's Summit, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

663
FXUS63 KEAX 160419
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1119 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Active weather pattern continues into early next week.

- Strong to severe storms will be possible tonight, primarily across
NE Kansas into NW Missouri.

- Marginal risk for strong to severe storms on Saturday and Sunday,
once again primarily for Northern Missouri.

- Best chance for severe weather comes Monday night into Tuesday
morning. All severe hazards will be possible. Locally moderate to
heavy rainfall will also be possible.

- Chances for strong to severe storms may linger into Tuesday.

- Anomalously mild temperatures are possible through Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Weak MCV across southern Missouri leading to some very light rain
showers south of highway 50.  Heat and humidity have increased today
with southerly flow leading to increasing moisture from the Gulf.
Storms are expected to develop along a frontal boundary across
eastern Nebraska this evening, building southeast and weakening in
time as storms work into weaker shear/instability. Greatest chance
for a severe storm will be across northwestern Missouri, where
storms would be capable of straight line winds and possibly large
hail. CAMs have been trending slower with the evolution of storms,
and the 18Z HRRR has suggested storms may struggle building south
away from the boundary. The northern edge of 30-40 knot low level
jet across the central into southern plains is in the vicinity of
the I-70 corridor, and the 18Z HRRR suggests storms may try to
develop in the early morning hours on Saturday if the MCS fails to
push south.

NAM_NEST, HRRR, RRFS and RAP suggest elevated showers and
thunderstorms may linger Saturday in weakly capped environment
dominated by warm air advection on Saturday, potentially keeping
temperatures down a bit. Have dropped forecast highs south of I-70
closer to the 25th percentile of model guidance.

Shortwave is expected to make it`s way across KS tomorrow,
potentially providing enough lift for redevelopment of storms in the
evening hours.  With a fair amount of clearing, could see surface
based CAPE values approach 2500 J/kg, but if clouds hang around, may
only see CAPE values approach 1500 J/kg. 30+ knots of 0-6 km shear
is largely confined to areas north I-70, which aligns with the
marginal/slight day 2 outlook. If storms are able to develop, could
once again see a few storms capable of large hail/damaging winds.

Unstable atmosphere remains across the region on Sunday, but
shortwaves appear to be largely focused farther north across
Nebraska and Iowa. Model soundings suggest the potential for stratus
on Sunday below strong capping inversion, potentially limiting
surface warming. High temperatures in NBM blend/forecast may be a
bit too warm if this occurs.

Still a fair amount of model discrepancy on the timing of cold front
pushing south Monday into Tuesday.  When the front works through,
this still appears to be the best chance for widespread severe
weather- with all hazards possible.  Precipitable water potentially
surges to near 1.50" ahead of the front, and with deep warm cloud
depths, could see efficient rainfall and the potential of flash
flooding. Temperatures behind the front are expected to be cooler
with more stable conditions through the remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected for much of the forecast period.
The forecast has shifted with radiative cooling and the
nocturnal inversion significantly reducing storm chances
overnight. Isolated -SHRA remains possible south of the MO
River and points east as sunrise approaches, however,
probabilities have decreased. Therefore kept PROB30 for KIXD;
however, there is a less than 30 percent chance for -SHRA
around KMCI and KMKC. KSTJ will likely miss out on the morning
SHRA; however, a complex of TSRA is anticipated to move through
northern MO possibly reaching KSTJ at the end of the period.

Southerly winds continue through the overnight with intermittent
gusts possible due to decay convection from previous hours.
Southerly gusts return after sunrise tomorrow reaching 20-30
knots.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BT
AVIATION...Pesel