Lee's Summit, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

577
FXUS63 KEAX 230348
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
948 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of patchy fog, with pockets of dense fog possible overnight
tonight into tomorrow morning. The most favorable locations seem to
be south of a line from Kirksville to the KC Metro.

- Very warm temperatures (20-30 degrees above normal) are expected
mid-week, with record temperatures possible on Thursday.

- Dry conditions persist into early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 948 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Updated Aviation discussion for the 06z TAF issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Mid to upper level ridging remains dominant over the western U.S.
with a H700 shortwave moving through the Great Plains. At the
surface, a low is developing over the SD/NE border. As we remain in
the warm sector of the low, southerly winds have resulted in
increased moisture transport from the Gulf. This influx of warm,
moist air has yielded a stratus deck that has moved over most of the
area. Since this morning, the cloud deck has begun to erode and will
continue to thin out and move east through the day.

Transitioning to the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday, temperatures are
expected to cool to the crossover temperature, winds will be calm,
and steady moisture from southerly winds will present a decent
potential for widespread patchy fog tomorrow morning. For now,
ensemble guidance suggests the most favorable areas will be for
areas south of a line from Kirksville to the KC Metro. The HREF
suggests mean visibilities around 3 miles. However, a few pockets of
dense fog cannot be ruled out as the HREF also gives a 60-80% for
visibilities to drop less than a quarter mile. There is some
uncertainty as the HRRR is very bullish, painting a swathe of dense
fog mostly south of the MO River and the GFS has virtually no signal
at all for fog. The NBM keeps any potential for dense fog south of
the area, while highlighting a few areas for 4-6 mile visibilities
mostly south of I-70. Given this wide spread in model solutions, I
decided to continue the mention of fog for most of the CWA as
forecasted conditions seem rather favorable for fog formation (calm
winds, low dew point depressions, and increased moisture). For the
rest of Tuesday, expect high temperatures to be a few degrees warmer
than today, ranging from the low 50s to upper 60s.

Our attention then shifts to Wednesday and Thursday (Christmas Eve
and Christmas) as temperatures may possibly reach/exceed record
levels as the stout mid to upper level ridge continues its eastward
push. For Wednesday, there is little uncertainty as models track a
H700 disturbance, embedded within the flow of the ridge, through our
area. Conditions will remain dry. However, extensive cloud coverage
could impede daytime heating, resulting in temperatures being a few
degrees cooler than anticipated. Highs for Wednesday currently range
in the upper 50s to mid 70s. For Christmas, record highs (and above)
appear much more likely as the mid to upper level ridge axis moves
over the area and we maintain southerly windflow. The NBM remains
steady in keeping high temperatures mostly in the 60s to mid 70s
(which happens to be 20-30 degrees above seasonal averages).

Highs remain mostly in the upper 50s to low 70s Friday and into the
weekend. For Saturday, a cold front moves through the area. However,
with the colder air lagging behind the front, the much more seasonal
temperatures will not arrive until Sunday. Highs for the start of
next week will range from the mid 30s to low 40s. Precip chances
remain very limited through the rest of this year. A cut-off low
sets up just off the Southwestern California Coast and ejects
shortwaves through the flow which could bring a few precip chances
approaching mid-next week into the start of the new year.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 948 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

For the 06z TAF issuance, have included a period of LLWS of 35
kts through the lowest 2000ft through 09-12z window based on
observations. Have refined the extend and intensity of the
expected fog/low stratus development late tonight into Tuesday
morning. This included removing fog at STJ, keeping MVFR at MCI,
adding a TEMPO IFR group centered at 12z at MKC, and lowering
cigs/vsbys to IFR and/or LIFR at IXD centered around 14z.

Steady S-SW around 5-10 kts will become light/variable during
the predawn hours. A dry cold front will pass from N to S during
the late morning and afternoon, bringing a shift to N to NE
winds at 5-10 kts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WFO PAH
DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...WFO PAH