Lee's Summit, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

742
FXUS63 KEAX 090348
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1048 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

...06z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms will be possible this afternoon/evening along a
  cold front along and south of a Moberly to Paola line.

- Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary
  hazards.

- Unsettled weather is probable for Thursday and into the
  weekend, with multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

Early this afternoon, a cold front is moving through the forecast
area as of 1pm is extending from Macon to Olathe. Our ahead of this
front a very unstable environment with a reservoir of CAPE values
range from 2000-3000J/Kg. Coupled with 40-50kts of effective shear
and fairly steep low-level lapse rates between 7.0-7.5 provide an
ample environment for severe storms capable of large hail, and
damaging winds. These storms will be efficient with PWATs between
1.25-1.50" however, the front should be progressive enough to
preclude any more than very localized flooding. This front will
continue to progress southeastward through the late afternoon into
this evening before finally exiting the CWA late this evening. in
addition, some post frontal showers and thunderstorms will be
possible however this will not be severe. A surface ridge of high
pressure will build into the area tonight allowing condition to dry
and clear out. This will allow temperatures to drop into the 50s
tonight.

Tomorrow, the upper level trough digging through the Upper Midwest
which was the catalyst for driving the cold front through the area
today will continue to dig into the Great Lake region. This will
force a reinforcing cold front through the area holding highs in the
70s. Monday night, another surface ridge of high pressure will build
into the area which will remain in control through Tuesday night.
This will keep conditions tranquil. Height rises on Tuesday will
allow highs to warm to near normal in the low to mid 80s.
Temperatures will further warm on Wednesday as shortwave ridging
builds over the area in response to a mid-level trough moving into
the southern Plains. This coupled with modest WAA will push highs
into the mid 80s to near 90.

Conditions become active again late in the week as the upper level
trough, in the form of a closed low, over the southern Plains slowly
moves northeastward toward the local area. This will allow showers
and thunderstorms to overspread the area Thursday holding highs in
the mid 80s. Severe weather is not anticipated at this time. Shower
and thunderstorm chances will continue Thursday night into Friday as
the closed low remains over the area before finally becoming an open
wave and shifting east on Friday. Long-wave, low amplitude ridging
will reside over the central CONUS by next weekend. However, several
upper level shortwaves rounding the ridge will continue to bring
unsettled weather to the area through the weekend. The unsettled
Friday through Sunday will hold highs in the low to mid 80s through
the period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1043 PM CDT Sun Jun 8 2025

With convection well S/SE of the area by this point, VFR
conditions are expected to prevail throughout the period. KSTJ
may see brief bounces into MVFR visibilities due to FU/HZ
conditions from smoke from Canadian fires, though bulk expected
to remain aloft. Otherwise, light to variable winds tonight,
settling out of the SW by morning and gradually shifting through
the day to the NW and breezier. Expect sustained winds 10 to 15
kts and gusts in the 20 to 25 kt range during daytime/peak
mixing hours.


&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...Curtis