Joplin, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

575
FXUS63 KSGF 221151
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
551 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few patches of drizzle possible today as moisture surges
  into the area.

- Fog will develop tonight into Tuesday. 50-80% chance fog
  becomes dense in areas of lower terrain on either side of the
  plateau, with visibility below a quarter mile.

- Steady warming trend with record highs possible mid- to late
  week. Clouds may result in temperatures being a little cooler
  than forecasted.

- Signal emerging for fog/drizzle to repeat each night through
  at least Christmas morning, though additional details are
  limited.

- Gusty winds return for Christmas Eve and Christmas, with
  sustained southwest winds of 15-25 mph, gusts up to 25-30 mph
  on Wednesday, and gusts up to 35-40 mph on Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 344 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Current Conditions and Synoptic Overview:
A surface high pressure is departing to our east under a broad
low-level ridge. To our west, a low pressure system is
developing along the lee of the Rockies. This leaves us in
southerly flow between the two features, advecting warm and
moist air northward into southwest Missouri and southeast
Kansas. This can be verified via satellite obs of the low
stratus deck that extends from Fort Scott, KS all the way to
Galveston, TX, where the Gulf airmass originated. This low
stratus deck will continue to build for the first part of the
day and then clear from west to east this afternoon.

Temperatures/Moisture Today:
As dew points slowly rise from the single digits observed on
Sunday evening into the upper 40s/low 50s by the end of today,
temperatures will also climb, with today`s highs in the upper
50s out east where cloud cover is thickest and lingers the
longest, and into the low 60s to the west where clouds clear out
earlier. There`s a little catch/feedback loop with temperatures
out west: they could be a few degrees lower if clouds stick
around through the afternoon, but the clouds are expected to
start clearing when temperatures warm enough to de-saturate the
low-levels of the atmosphere, which would be delayed by the
presence of cloud cover. So, if temperature increases over time
are a degree or two off, the rest of the forecast may change
dramatically.

Drizzle:
A weak low-level shortwave will push some energy into our area
as the warm air mass continues moving north, allowing the WAA to
act as a source of lift. In areas where low-level lift overlaps
with sufficient moisture (>85% RH in lowest 1km), drizzle will
be possible. Coverage of drizzle may be pretty spotty/hit or
miss, but potential will continue into the overnight hours in
the eastern Ozarks as moisture arrives. Moisture advection has
been a little slower overnight than models suggested it would
be, so if moisture advection doesn`t speed up as currently
anticipated, that would decrease drizzle potential across most
of the area, push it later into the overnight hours, and
primarily confine it to the eastern Ozarks.

Fog:
Tonight on either side of the Springfield Plateau, temperatures
will cool to upper 40s/low 50s. If you recall, dew points will
also be in the upper 40s/low 50s, which will be create
conditions conducive to fog development as early as midnight
Tuesday morning. HREF probability of visibility <1/4 mile is
50-80% in these areas, so a Dense Fog Advisory is a distinct
possibility tonight and even into late Tuesday morning. One
source of uncertainty with this fog is that temperatures along
the highest terrain of the plateau (I-44 corridor +/- 30 miles
on either side of it) may be just a few degrees higher, which is
the difference between patchy spots of fog in the small low-
lying dips of a county road and "I need Rudolph" levels of dense
fog. The aforementioned moisture advection speed would also play
into this a little bit too. If moisture comes in faster than
currently forecasted, fog may be dense everywhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 411 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Temperatures:
High confidence in well above-normal temperatures at least
through Thursday, likely through the end of the week.
Persistence forecast prevails into the end of the week after
temperatures rise Tuesday and Wednesday. Overall temperature
spread may become a little wider as the week progresses and
additional mesoscale sources of uncertainty are represented in
the model output, but the signal for a very warm Christmas
holiday is very strong. Highs on the 24th and 25th are expected
to reach mid-70s. The early week caveat that cloud cover could
alter temperature outcomes will still apply through the rest of
the week... which would mean Christmas only reaches low 70s
instead of mid-70s.

Fog/Drizzle:
We might be in for a repeat of last year`s foggy holiday
conditions, with signals for fog continuing through at least
Christmas morning. Confidence in details is still low, but
unseasonably high dew points in at least the mid- to upper 50s
plus low temps in the mid- to upper 50s or low 60s will leave us
quite saturated overnight. A persistence forecast in place
usually means that if you get fog one night, and nothing
changes, you`ll also get fog the following night. So, despite
concrete details regarding locations of drizzle and fog, or how
widespread or intense those phenomena would be, there is once
again a convincing signal to watch out for.

Winds:
Wednesday and Thursday look to be quite windy, with gusts up to
25-30 mph on Wednesday and gusts up to 35-40 mph on Thursday.
Sustained winds both days from the southwest between 15-25 mph.

Next Change-Up:
A potent and highly amplified atmospheric river crashing into
California early this week is the source of significant
differences between long-range models on what will happen later
this week. Depending how the AR pans out earlier in the week, we
may see deviations in the late week/weekend forecast. As of
right now, a cold front pushes through Saturday and Sunday,
bringing 20-30% chances of rain.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 508 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

MVFR conditions with 1-5kft ceilings under a stratus deck to
start the period, which is expected to clear from west to east
beginning around 20Z. Southerly winds 10-15kts, gusting to
25kts this afternoon. LLWS increases to 35-40kts this evening.

Periods of drizzle will be possible under the stratus deck this
afternoon and especially into this evening, but drizzle is not
expected to impact TAF sites at this time. Overnight into
Tuesday morning, fog will form, but confidence in extent of
impacts (if any) at the TAF sites is too uncertain to include
at this time. KJLN seems most likely of all TAF sites to be
impacted by fog on Tuesday morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 515 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Record High Temperatures:

December 23:
KSGF: 72/1982
KJLN: 73/1982
KVIH: 68/1904
KUNO: 68/1996

December 24:
KSGF: 74/1955
KJLN: 75/2021
KVIH: 72/9999
KUNO: 74/1955

December 25:
KSGF: 74/1889
KJLN: 72/2016
KVIH: 71/1971
KUNO: 74/2021

December 26:
KSGF: 68/2008
KJLN: 75/2021
KVIH: 72/1971
KUNO: 73/1971

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

December 24:
KSGF: 54/1889
KJLN: 58/2021
KVIH: 52/1982
KUNO: 54/2023

December 25:
KSGF: 58/1889
KJLN: 52/2016
KVIH: 46/2019
KUNO: 47/2021

December 26:
KSGF: 54/1942
KJLN: 56/1954
KVIH: 55/1971
KUNO: 50/2019

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Camden
LONG TERM...Camden
AVIATION...Camden
CLIMATE...Camden