Joplin, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

482
FXUS63 KSGF 271002
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
502 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat and humidity continue through at least Tuesday and
  potentially through Wednesday. Daily highs in the lower to
  middle 90s with maximum afternoon heat index values around 100
  to 109. Heat Advisory remains in effect until 7 PM Tuesday.

- Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms possible again this
  afternoon into early this evening. The main potential hazards
  will be wind gusts up to 50 mph, frequent lightning, and
  localized heavy rainfall.

- Cooler temperatures return by the end of the week. Daily rain
  chances (20-40%) will also occur at times during the middle
  and end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

An upper level ridge of high pressure remains over the region
early this morning. Just north of the upper level high, an area
of uncapped MUCAPE is in place across portions of central and
east central Missouri where showers and thunderstorms have
developed currently remaining north and east of the area. The
area of uncapped MUCAPE does extend south into the northeastern
portions of the area in central Missouri with a cap in place
across the rest of the area to the south. Lift is weaker south
of the current convection, but there could be enough for an
isolated shower and thunderstorm to develop early this morning.
Overall the better chances should remain north of the area and
most locations in our area should remain dry the rest of the
overnight highs.

The hot conditions will continue across the region today as the
upper ridge remains over the region. Highs will once again warm
into the lower to middle 90s with maximum heat index values in
the 100 to 108 range this afternoon into early this evening. The
Heat Advisory will remain in effect for the entire area today.

Instability will increase across the area today as the cap
weakens with the heating of the day. There will not be a lot of
lift across the area with the ridge of high pressure over head
but highs should be around convective temperatures. Therefore
a few pulse type thunderstorms may be able to develop this
afternoon into early this evening, the outflows from those
storms moving to the east to southeast should be able to
initiate additional isolated to scattered storms today. The
entire area will have the potential (10-30%) for this activity
but the better chances will be across central and south central
Missouri (30%) but still not all locations will be impacted. A
drier air mass in the mid levels of the atmosphere will start to
advect into the region from west to east this afternoon into
this evening, with the better moisture remaining across central
and south central Missouri longer into the evening. Theta-E
difference will increase across the area this afternoon, and
with the unstable air mass in place, if storms are able develop
and produce outflows, a few strong storms with winds gusts
around 50mph and frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall will be
possible. Cannot rule out an isolate severe storm with damaging
wind gusts the main risk. Overall these storms will be slow
moving and will producing locally heavy rainfall. If multiple
storms could track over the same locations there could be a very
localized flooding risk today, but given the scattered nature
of the storms widespread flooding is not expected. As the drier
air mass advects east across the area this activity should
dissipate from west to east by the early to mid evening hours.

Overnight lows will again only drop into the middle 70s tonight
into Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 242 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

The upper level ridge will shift slightly to the west and be
centered over the region Monday and Tuesday. Highs again will
warm into the middle 90s with heat index values in the 100 to
109 range both days. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the
entire area through 7PM Tuesday.

A slightly drier air mass in the mid levels of the atmosphere will
build into the area on Monday and Tuesday and will limit the pop
up storm potential. There could potentially be just enough
moisture for a few isolated showers and maybe a storm across
portions of southern Missouri Monday afternoon but chances are
low and if any convection could develop coverage would be
limited.

An upper level trough and front will move southeast out of the
northern plains during the middle of the week. Which will push
the upper level ridge to the west and bring an upper level
northwest flow to the region later next weekend into next
weekend. This will result in slightly cooler conditions to
return to the area with highs in the 80s late week into next
weekend. There area still some timing difference in the models
on how quickly the front gets in the area on Wednesday into
Wednesday night. If the upper level trough and front are slower
to move into the area, highs on Wednesday would again warm into
the the upper 90s with the heat continuing another day. If the
front is faster at least portions of the area would be cooler.
Another thing will have to watch even if the front is slower, an
MCS could develop across the plains and move southeast into the
area on Wednesday bringing more clouds and rain to the area.
Will need to get a better handle on the exact timing of any
convection and the front on Wednesday to see if the Heat
Headlines will need to be extended into Wednesday or not.

The area will then be in northwest flow aloft late week into
next weekend. There will be the potential for some convection
developing and moving through the area brining chances (20-40%)
for showers and storms to the area at times mid week into next
week. The exact chances and timing will be dependent on exactly
how far west the ridge pushed back as if it pushes further
enough west the chances for rain may also be better to the west.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 502 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025

VFR conditions area expected to generally prevail across the
area today into Monday morning. A cumulus cloud field will
develop again during the mid morning into the afternoon hours.

A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the area
this afternoon into early this evening. Coverage is expected to
be limited so not all locations will be impacted and confidence
in the TAF site being impacted is too low to include any
mention of thunder in the TAFs at this times.

If storms are able to develop and move into any of the TAF
sites, there would be the potential for gusty and erratic winds
in addition to MVFR and brief IFR conditions this afternoon
into the early this evening.

Otherwise outside of storms, southwesterly surface winds will
occur across the area today becoming more southerly this evening
into tonight. Could see some gusts up to around 15-20kt at
times this morning into this afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise