Grandview, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

823
FXUS63 KEAX 122316
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
616 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers continue through sunset. Greatest coverage
  south of I-70, but an isolated heavier shower possible across
  NE MO.

- Isolated showers continue Friday. A few of these showers could
  bring heavy downpours creating localized flooding. Primary
  areas of concern are from Kirksville to Butler and points
  east.

- Hot and muggy conditions continue. Temperatures remain in the
  mid to upper 80s with heat index values in the 90s through the
  next 7 days.

&&

.MESOSCALE...
Issued at 211 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Isolated showers are developing across NE MO as the 500mb front
pivots toward the north and east. Slight surface convergence is
proving to be just enough to initiate showers much like we saw
this morning when this boundary was along the I-70 corridor.

The potential for these storms is mainly concentrated east of
I-35. This part of the region received more diurnal heating
which destabilized the atmosphere slight more than other area.
The result of this is the potential for more robust showers
which may tap into the saturated air leading to heavy downpours.
The lack of shear and meager lapse rates keep these storms from
approaching severe criteria, and these storms are expected to
behave more like air mass thunderstorms building and dissipating
fairly quickly.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Cloud cover envelopes the region as a broad low pressure system
continues to work its way across the south central Plains. Scattered
showers lingered around through the morning hours Thursday as a
500mb front pivoted toward the I-70 corridor. Interestingly, this
frontal structure does not translate down to the surface. Looking at
the planer profile shows more divergent behavior at lower levels
implying sinking motion which should be a hindrance to shower
development. Surface observations do show this divergent behavior and
that is further reinforced by the dissipating showers. However,
there seems to be just enough lift and elevated mesoscale
convergence south of the boundary to keep isolated weak showers
going through the evening. As high clouds from the parent low
envelope the region, these showers are expected to dissipate. A more
widespread shield of rain makes its way north from SW MO which has
formed along a more traditional surface warm frontal boundary.
However, the lack of instability, shear, and weak flow makes the
environment fairly difficult to maintain showers which has caused
them to dissipate through the afternoon. Optimistic CAM guidance
brought shower chances all the way to the I-70 corridor which it
has, but much further east across central MO.

CAMs continue to suggest the potential for isolated showers this
afternoon and evening. It is no secret that summer weather has
arrived with hot and humid conditions dominating the region. While
cloud cover curtails temperatures, dew points in the mid to upper 60s
make it feel quite soupy out there. This saturation is reflected in
the PWAT which slowly ascend above 1.5 inches. Winds remain just
variable enough that small areas of surface convergence may initiate
small pockets of lift which can bring isolated shower chances
through the evening. It is very difficult to tell exactly where
showers may form because of the extreme nuance of these difference;
however, the greatest confidence is that most stay dry, some may see
a shower, and a select few may see a heavy downpour. With PWATs in
excess of 1.5 inches, it is certainly possible if a storm is able to
tap into the moisture, that it will try to rain it all out. The true
wild card is that 500mb front which CAMs suggest will reach all the
way into NE MO. Clearing ahead of this front allows the atmosphere
to destabilize more than points south; therefore, creating a better
environment for potentially heavier showers; however, the resident
moisture is not as much as areas south and uncertainties remain on
forcing mechanisms in that region. Regardless, the primary result is
isolated pockets of heavy rain with the potential for some
lightning. Overall CAPE and shear remain limited curtailing severe
chances.

As Thursday becomes Friday, the core of this low reorganizes
favoring centering over NW AR. This shifts widespread rainfall
further east across the MS River Valley; however, the low level
setup becomes more convergent setting up the potential for more
isolated, but possible heavier showers. CAMs continue to remain
sparse in shower coverage. The area with the greatest potential
extends from Kirksville to Butler and points east; however,
recent CAM guidance has come in suggesting some isolated
showers, possibly a thunderstorm, toward sunrise Friday the
I-35 corridor. Once again, severe convective parameters like
CAPE and shear remain lackluster keeping severe concerns low,
but a heavy downpour which may lead to localized short duration flash
flooding.

Through the weekend NW upper level flow pairs with southerly low
level flow resulting in sunny, but humid Saturday. A brief shortwave
clips the region Sunday bringing slight precipitation chances
precipitation chances during the day, but more robust storm chances
come overnight as guidance suggest an MCS traversing southern IA
into eastern MO. Extended guidance maintains this sinusoidal pattern
of shortwave MCS`s, which is typical of summer, keeping things
rather active even though most days will be sunny, hot, and
muggy.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 614 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

VFR conditions are anticipated to start the TAF period but will only
last a few hours with MVFR ceilings becoming more predominant into
the night. There is a potential for some rain moving in from
the south, however decided to keep in a PROB30 group due to
uncertainty in location. The rain may stay just to the east of
the terminals. Winds will become light and variable overnight
and MVFR conditions are expected to slowly improve tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

MESOSCALE...Pesel
DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...Collier