Cape Girardeau, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

368
FXUS63 KPAH 160554
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1254 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures and humidity levels will start feeling more like
  summer-time through early next week. Highs will average close
  to 10 degrees above normal with lots of mid to upper 80s
  pushing into the lower 90s.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances increase tonight into Saturday
  with highest chances (30-60%) across the northern half of the
  area. There is about a 5-10% chance of a severe thunderstorm
  or two mainly over SE Illinois, southwest Indiana and
  Northwest Kentucky.

- More widespread chances (60-80%) for showers and storms are
  slated for early to mid next week, particularly Tuesday and
  Wednesday. Modest risks for some severe thunderstorms or
  locally heavy rain may emerge in this period, most likely
  Tuesday afternoon but these risks do not appear to be
  increasing.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Weak warm advection and perhaps just a touch of jet-level ascent
are fueling weak showers that seem to mostly not quite be
reaching the ground early this morning. A small trough over
Oklahoma is moving this way projected to pass close to the
region by mid-morning. Observed and forecast soundings show
enough elevated instability that any little oomph could generate
showers and possibly a weak thunderstorm so we maintain
relatively low pops across the area most of the day along with
fairly persistent mid-level cloud cover. Highest pops are over
SWIN and northwest Kentucky where you have the best chance for a
combo of large-scale ascent (mid level shortwave and warm
frontogenetic forcing) and afternoon heating to build up a few
storms. If we warm up as much as forecast, MLCAPEs will hit
2000-2500 J/kg, with 0-6 km bulk shear about 30-35 kts so a
little stronger/more organized storm would be at least possible.
I think the better bet is it doesn`t warm up quite that much and
we fight residual 800mb warm air which would limit the apparent
threat for any severe to something like 5-10% over SWIN/NW
Kentucky with wind probably the main threat in surface based
convection with a smaller risk of large hail in elevated
convection (rooted above the capping inversion).

The warm front clears the area by Sunday morning leading to hot,
humid and dry conditions for Sunday.

Broad troughing over the central US sends an initial wave that
still brushes to our northwest Monday afternoon and evening.
Rich low level moisture will be in place by Monday afternoon
although lower level lapse rates are poor with warmer air around
850mb. Would need pretty deep low-level forcing to initiate
convection and it is possible but the 30-50% chances painted for
precip/storms mainly over the western half of the CWA appear
reasonable for the late afternoon and evening. With the parent
system over the Plains rotating around we end up in the right
rear quadrant of an upper jet Tuesday evening. With several
days of deep southwesterly moisture return of western Gulf air
PWAT values rise to around 1.7 or 1.8 inches. Deep layer shear
remains pretty poor until a cold front clears so despite
2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE the severe weather risk still doesn`t
appear exceptional. Steady lift, instability, and moisture
return ahead of a slow moving front does however look supportive
still for locally heavy rain although overall QPFs are still
not super-impressive. We may end up finding a nice spot in
between beneficial levels of rain without getting into a flood
scenario and without a significant severe weather threat, which
would be quite unseasonable!

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 430 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

A short wave ripple of energy shoots across the terminals later
tonight into Saturday, associated with the lifting of a warm
front across our region. It offers the impetus for ISOLD-SCT
SHRA/TSRA potential, with otherwise time/height cross sections
indicating top-down columnar moistening offering primarily mid
to high based VFR CIGS. Upper end MVFR VSBYS/CIGS are possible
with low probs forecasting for their best potential time period,
late tonight-early Saturday morning.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JGG
AVIATION...