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Belton, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
NWS Forecast for Belton MO
National Weather Service Forecast for: Belton MO
Issued by: National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Updated: 5:40 pm CDT Aug 17, 2025
 
Tonight

Tonight: Mostly clear, with a low around 74. South southeast wind 3 to 6 mph.
Mostly Clear

Monday

Monday: Sunny, with a high near 93. Heat index values as high as 102. South southwest wind 5 to 9 mph.
Sunny

Monday
Night
Monday Night: A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1am.  Mostly clear, with a low around 74. South southwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm  in the evening.  Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Mostly Clear
then Slight
Chance
T-storms
Tuesday

Tuesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Mostly sunny, with a high near 92. Heat index values as high as 99. West southwest wind 3 to 5 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Chance
T-storms

Tuesday
Night
Tuesday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Partly cloudy, with a low around 70. North northeast wind 3 to 5 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Chance
T-storms

Wednesday

Wednesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 7am.  Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Chance
T-storms

Wednesday
Night
Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 65.
Mostly Clear

Thursday

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 83.
Sunny

Thursday
Night
Thursday Night: Clear, with a low around 63.
Clear

Lo 74 °F Hi 93 °F Lo 74 °F Hi 92 °F Lo 70 °F Hi 87 °F Lo 65 °F Hi 83 °F Lo 63 °F

 

Tonight
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 74. South southeast wind 3 to 6 mph.
Monday
 
Sunny, with a high near 93. Heat index values as high as 102. South southwest wind 5 to 9 mph.
Monday Night
 
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1am. Mostly clear, with a low around 74. South southwest wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Tuesday
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 92. Heat index values as high as 99. West southwest wind 3 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tuesday Night
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 70. North northeast wind 3 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Wednesday
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 7am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Wednesday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 65.
Thursday
 
Sunny, with a high near 83.
Thursday Night
 
Clear, with a low around 63.
Friday
 
Sunny, with a high near 86.
Friday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 65.
Saturday
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 83.
Saturday Night
 
Partly cloudy, with a low around 60.
Sunday
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 78.

 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for Belton MO.

Weather Forecast Discussion
440
FXUS63 KEAX 172319
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
619 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid conditions possible through Monday with triple
  digit heat indices. High uncertainty exists for Monday due to
  thunderstorm potential.

- Ongoing, isolated thunderstorms continue this afternoon for
  the southeastern fringes of our area (mainly east of a line
  from Howard to Henry counties). No severe weather expected.

- Multiple chances for thunderstorms starting early Monday
  morning and Tuesday.

- Seasonal temperatures return for the second half of this week
  with highs in the 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

For today, broad mid to upper level ridging continues its dominant
streak over the area. This, combined with strong southerly winds has
resulted in hot and humid conditions over the area. High
temperatures today will range in the low to mid 90s with dew points
near the low 70s. This will yield heat index values around 100-105
degrees F. Areas near and north of St. Joseph are less likely to
reach heat advisory thresholds as deeper mixing this afternoon has
resulted in dew points mostly in the lower 70s keeping the northern
half of our CWA below heat advisory criteria. A Heat Advisory is in
effect until 7 PM today for areas south of a line from Leavenworth
(KS) to Macon counties.

A surface low extending from ND into western KS has strengthened the
pressure gradient over our area with higher pressure over the
eastern U.S. This has resulted in occasional gusts through the day
up to 10-15 mph mainly for eastern KS to central MO. Additionally,
as these slightly stronger winds collide with the slower winds
farther east, this low-level convergence will continue to be the
lifting mechanism for a few isolated thunderstorms this afternoon
into the evening primarily for the southeastern portions of our area
(east of a line from Randolph to Henry counties). As of 18Z, storms
have already begun to develop in Pettis and Cooper counties. No
severe weather is anticipated. Even though there is abundant
instability (3,500-4,500 J/kg of SBCAPE), very low shear (below 10
kts) will keep storms from being able to efficiently organize
resulting in fairly short-lived convection. Any cloud coverage from
these storms or surrounding cu fields will likely only provide
minimal relief from the heat.

Early Monday morning, our area enters the warm sector of the surface
low as it continues to slowly track to the northeast. WAA combined
with a 25-35 kt H850 low-level jet increasing moisture transport
will be enough for storms to develop over southern MN extending into
central KS. This line is then anticipated to track to the east
approaching northwest MO. Here is where the forecast becomes more
challenging as hi-res models diverge on solutions. The 12Z HRRR
tracks the storms almost to the KC Metro by late Monday morning. The
12Z NAMNST completely dissipates the storms in IA and keeps our area
dry. The most likely scenario appears to be storms entering
northwest MO and decaying north of the KC Metro (which the HREF
suggests). These storms will present low-end chances for severe
weather mainly for the MO/IA state line with the primary threat
being isolated strong to damaging winds (DCAPE values exceeding
1,000 J/kg). Guidance also suggests additional isolated thunderstorm
chances Monday afternoon into the evening for southeastern portions
of our area (near Howard, Pettis, and Henry counties). Again, this
will be determined on how storms develop through the morning.

Multiple rounds of possible storms on Monday adds complexity to the
temperature forecast. Broad mid to upper level ridging will still
remain over the area resulting in highs ranging in the low to mid
90s. Dew points will still be in the 70s yield heat indices around
100-105 degrees F. However, with the potential convection, increased
cloud cover could impede the effects of daytime heat causing them to
fall short of heat advisory criteria. For now, confidence is not
high enough to issue any heat headlines. Additional uncertainties
exist for Monday with respect to precipitation, as H700 vort maxima
and outflows from convection could result in multiple rounds of
showers and storms across the area through the day and late evening.
Thunderstorm chances continue into Tuesday as broad mid to upper
level ridging retreats to the west and and a H500 shortwave on the
northeastern periphery moves through the area. At the surface, the
low finally drags its northeast to southwest oriented cold front
through the area. For now, severe weather is not expected, but PWATs
ranging around 2 and tall, skinny CAPE profiles suggest the
potential for a few heavy downpours with these storms. The WPC has
issued a marginal risk (at least 5% chance) for excessive rainfall
for the whole area. However, storms look to be progressive enough to
stave off increased flooding concerns.

A surface high ushers in a much more seasonal air mass on the back
side of the surface cold front. Highs for the second half of this
week will range mostly in the 80s. Broad-scale subsidence with the
descending surface high and a stout mid to upper level ridge over
the western U.S. extending into the Plains seems to keep us dry
going into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 614 PM CDT Sun Aug 17 2025

VFR conditions with light south/southeasterly wind prevailing
overnight. Could see a decaying line of thunderstorms building
into northwest MO after 11Z Monday. Unsure how far south these
storms make it before falling apart, but have included a prob30
mention at KSTJ terminal. Potential to see storms redevelop
after 20Z Monday afternoon, but location remains uncertain at
this point.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ025-028>033-
     037>040-043>046-053-054.
KS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ057-060-
     103>105.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...BT
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Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather






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