Pascagoula, Mississippi 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

121
FXUS64 KLIX 092343
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
643 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

Typical northwest flow regime with convection taking longer to get
going this afternoon but it is finally beginning to pop across
southeastern MS and back building across the river into LA. This
is along an old outflow boundary from convection earlier.
Otherwise it has been another warm and humid day. Luckily it
wasn`t as oppressive as it was yesterday. I few sites have seen
the heat index jump into the lower 100s but most are remaining in
the 90s.

First lets look at the next 6 hours before we looks at tomorrow and
Wednesday. Remnant outflow boundary that was mentioned in the
previous paragraph is lightning up now. This area is collocated with
the highest instability in the area, decent LL convergence and
fairly impressive upper lvl diffluence. Mesoanalysis and WV shows a
weak mid lvl impulse just beginning to move into our area. As this
continue to slowly work east we will see convection continue to
develop mainly over areas east of I-55 and especially along north of
I-10. That activity will drift southeast through the evening and
should begin to dissipate pretty significantly just before midnight.
Prior to that though there is the threat of a few strong to severe
storms and locally heavy rainfall. PWs are ata 1.9" for much of the
CWA and even approaching 2.1" just west of the area we are most
concerned with convection. That will move into the eastern half of
the CWA over the remainder of the afternoon and evening hours. That
combined with the favorable diffluence aloft and likely strong
convection should lead to a few rather efficient storms and if these
storms move over more urban areas could quickly lead to runoff and
some isolated areas of flash flooding.

Again convection should quickly begin to dissipate an hour or two
before midnight but likely not completely die off overnight as there
will still be isolated storms overnight, especially over the coastal
waters.

So the next 36-48 hrs, could be active each day but not going to lie
confidence is not the greatest in how widespread convection will be
however, we should see at least scattered convection across the
region Tuesday but Wednesday may be a little less in coverage.
Tomorrow we will still be under a weak northwest flow regime but the
eastern CONUS L/W trough will not linger around for long and by
tomorrow afternoon and early evening will slide east. Heading into
Wednesday a weak disturbance currently over southern CA will slide
towards the southern Plains with s/w ridging taking place over the
Lower MS Valley Wednesday. Now that s/w ridging could significantly
impact thunderstorm potential but if the ridge axis is just to the
east of the area it may act a little more like a dirty ridge given
all of the moisture available with convection being highly driven by
diurnal shifts i.e. sea/lake breezes and peak heating. /CAB/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday night)
Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

Again medium range models in fairly good agreement. In addition
the GFS and ECMWF ensemble means are also in rather good agreement
with their perspective op runs. This generally leads to higher
confidence in the medium range forecast and nothing suggest it
shouldn`t this time. However again the NBM is very high with the
PoPs showing 70-90% Thursday and through the weekend and lets be
completely clear we are not going to see that coverage everyday.
Would like to drop PoPs some but not confident enough to drop any
specific area but 5-7 days of 70-90% PoP is not that realistic.
MOS products are not anywhere that hot but they do trend towards
climo on days 6 and 7. With that DO NOT be surprised to see PoPs
drop down drastically in some spots as we move through the week.

As for the pattern things will transition very very slowly. We will
generally be between 2 ridges Thursday through the weekend. One
ridge will begin to build over the Bahamas and then slide west into
the southeastern CONUS and far eastern Gulf. At the same time a
large ridge will begin to take shape over the Mexico/AZ/NM border.
That ridge will build north through the southern Rockies and into
the western Plains. What this does is places us in the area of
weakness between the two ridges. This does provide us a more
favorable setup for daily convection and with weak synoptic flow the
sfc winds will be driven diurnally and convection will as well,
typically along the seabreeze each day or even nocturnal marine
convection sliding during the day. Once convection initiates it will
be driven by outflow and other boundary interactions. /CAB/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 637 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

Prevailing VFR at all terminals and they should remain that way
outside of convection. Terminals with the best chance at
convection this evening are GPT and ASD. Some lower cigs may
impact MCB, otherwise VFR should hold.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Mon Jun 9 2025

Winds are right at the SCS threshold but just marginally. With
that will hold off on headlines for now but that may need to be
added to some of the waters, mainly that area east of the MS delta
as that typical nocturnal jet develops. Otherwise high pressure
will begin to take over and winds will slowly back around to the
south and southeast through the week and into the weekend. The
main concerns for marine operators will be the daily/nightly
threat for thunderstorms to produce locally higher winds and/or
seas. Do not see any prolonged period over the next 5 days where
thunderstorms will not be a threat. /CAB/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  87  69  88 /  60  80  30  70
BTR  74  89  73  90 /  50  70  30  80
ASD  73  89  71  90 /  50  80  40  80
MSY  77  90  77  90 /  40  70  40  90
GPT  74  87  73  88 /  70  80  60  80
PQL  73  88  72  89 /  80  80  60  80

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CAB
LONG TERM....CAB
AVIATION...HL
MARINE...CAB