St. Paul, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

900
FXUS63 KMPX 250542
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1242 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet weather through Saturday aside from poor air quality
  through Friday evening due to wildfire smoke

- Warming temperatures with highs near 90 and heat indices in
  the upper 90s to low 100s on Sunday.

- Unsettled weather resumes on Sunday and lasts through early
  next week with daily thunderstorm chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 PM CDT Thu Jul 24 2025

Any lingering showers that had been in our southeastern MN and
western WI counties have exited, leaving us dry and partly sunny.
However, a familiar foe is back across western MN as the
northwesterly flow has advected smoke from Canadian wildfires back
into our region. MnDOT road cameras and weather stations reveal a
good haze from the wildfire smoke so have added it manually into the
grids, as the RAP and HRRR were struggling with the smoke`s
magnitude. The smoke is expected to spread across our CWA, such that
an Air Quality Alert is in effect until 11 PM Friday. The northern
half of MN is forecast to have the worst conditions, where the air
quality will be unhealthy for everyone. Thus, refrain from long
periods of time outdoors and strenuous activities. Otherwise, the
next few days will be quiet. Areas of fog is possible in our eastern
WI counties Friday morning. Calm winds and clear skies should allow
for good radiational cooling overnight for surface profile
saturation. Though, RAP and HRRR forecast soundings at EAU aren`t
that optimistic about fog. Still, would not be surprised to see some
denser areas in low-lying places, especially after the recent rains.
Friday`s highs will be in the low to mid 80s.

The chance for showers and thunderstorms across southeastern MN and
western WI Saturday morning has decreased from previous forecasts.
CAMs keep precipitation well to our south while forecast soundings
from larger scale models at AEL and EAU struggle with deep-layer
saturation and have little signs of synoptic lift. Currently have
around 30% PoPs for our extreme southeastern counties. Once this
weak wave passes, southwesterly flow will persist through the
weekend allowing for warm-air and moisture advection. Saturday
shouldn`t be as hot as Sunday but the air will still be
uncomfortable as higher dewpoints (lower 70s) arrive. The worst heat
is expected Sunday where highs are forecast to reach the upper 80s
to lower 90s while dewpoints peak in the mid 70s. As a result, this
combination pushes heat indices to at least 100 for much of the
area. This would mean we see a return in heat headlines.

A big caveat with this weekend`s potential heat is if we see rounds
of showers and thunderstorms developing from the influx of hot and
very moist air. This could cause a scenario like on Wednesday where
precipitation keeps temperatures cooler for part or all of our
region. But, forecast 850 hPa temperatures are warmer in the NAM,
GFS, and ECMWF compared to Wednesday. Also, forecast soundings
across our area show a strong cap in place Saturday into Sunday.
Thus, we would likely need a lot of lift to overcome the inhibition,
which doesn`t look to arrive until later in the weekend when a
coupled jetstreak and height falls move overhead. NBM PoPs maximize
at 50-70% from central MN to northwest WI Sunday evening as most
models try to develop QPF during this time period. From a forecaster
perspective, this pattern definitely shows the signs of a "ring of
fire" setup where showers and thunderstorms grow upscale amid the
strong instability and travel downstream, following the upper-level
flow/instability. Thus, we will have to continue to watch Sunday,
not just for the heat, but for also potential severe weather as
these lines of storms can be capable of producing all severe
hazards. Monday could also be hot and steamy (like Sunday) but large
uncertainties exist regarding how much convection lingers around
into Monday morning and if more showers and storms develop again
during the day.

Eventually, a cold front looks to sweep through near mid-next week,
bringing in a much more comfortable Canadian continental airmass the
latter half of the week. Temperatures look to fall below normal
while precipitation chances remain lower with the drier air.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1241 AM CDT Fri Jul 25 2025

MVFR/IFR FU/FG possible overnight. Areas of wildfire smoke have
reach as far south of central MN. With virtually no wind
currently and forecast over the next several hours, fog is
expected to develop in the smoke. The most prevalent impacts
are expected at STC, RNH, and EAU where a few hours of LIFR 1/2
vsby is likely. Timing reflects with tempo groups between
09-13z timeframe. RWF and MKT could see fog as well but impacts
should only reach low MVFR vsby. Southerly winds will remain
light through tomorrow although AXN could see a few gusts
between 18-20kts in the afternoon.

KMSP...Smoke is moving farther south than anticipated. Thus, have
introduced a tempo to capture periods of lowered MVFR vsby early
this morning.


/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind S 5-10kts.
SUN...Chc morning MVFR cigs. Chc P.M. -TSRA. Wind SE 5-10kts.
MON...VFR. Wind NNE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CTG
AVIATION...Dunleavy