Shoreview, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

906
FXUS63 KMPX 240500
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1100 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild temperatures and weak disturbances on tap through
  Saturday, then a shot of colder air Sunday into early next
  week.

- Northwest winds gusting over 40 mph likely Saturday night into
  Sunday.

- Chance for drizzle and freezing drizzle Thursday evening &
  night. Potential for slick travel Thursday night through
  Friday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Zooming out to the continental level on the h5 analysis today shows
what continues to be the predominate driver of our weather patterns,
a strong blocking high from the Aleutians into the Bering Sea. This
is setting up a wave train across North America that features a
trough immediately downstream of the ridge across the
Alaska/Canadian border down into the eastern Pac (which is where you
will find an intensely cold batch of arctic air), the next
downstream ridge over North America east of the Rockies (why our
airmasses have been so mild for all but one day over the past week),
with the next trough over eastern Canada into the northern Atlantic.
Until this Aleutian blocking high breaks down, it will be tough to
change the current weather pattern much. Over the next two weeks,
the EPS, keeps this blocking high over the Aleutians in some
capacity, though it does show the central North American ridge
flattening out this weekend, which will allow for cooler airmasses
to start making inroads into the northern CONUS as we end 2025 and
head toward 2026.

Closer to home, there`s a surface high moving into MN this
afternoon. There are patches pesky stratus over MN and it is
expected that this stratus will not mix out completely today, which
means we`ll have patches of stratus trapped beneath the ridge
tonight. It`s had to say how widespread the stratus will be, along
with when and where it will be through the night, but this will only
be an impact for aviation. As we head into Wednesday, this high will
be over the Great Lakes, with southerly flow overspreading the
region once again. This southerly flow will be picking up the
moisture that is currently resulting in dense fog and stratus in
KS/MO and sending it north toward MN. Hi-res models show a wall of
stratus heading for southern MN Wednesday morning. At the same time,
there will be a weak cold front dropping south out of northern MN,
so the question for the MPX area for Wednesday afternoon through
Wednesday night is exactly how far north into the dry air the wall
of stratus (and fog) makes it. Going into Christmas, our low level
winds turn to the southeast, with that wall of stratus (and fog)
expected to overspread the rest of the area not covered by it
Wednesday night. This will result in a dreary Christmas Day, with
temperatures likely not to move very far given the lack of sun. As
this happens, a warm nose centered at about 775mb will be warming to
nearly +8C, so temperature profiles on Thursday will feature a large
low level inversion. During the afternoon and evening on Thursday, a
surface trough and weak shortwave will move across MN and into WI.
WAA and PVA out ahead of these feature will impart weak ascent and a
source of lift. Looking at soundings though, all of our moisture is
locked in the wall of stratus that will be upwards of 5k feet deep,
with the mid and upper levels bone dry above this stratus layer. The
net result is classic drizzle soundings across our entire area
Thursday afternoon through Thursday night. Even running P-types from
the NBM, all we got were probabilities for rain or freezing rain. No
sleet, no snow, so this increases confidence that we`re heading for
a drizzle-fest scenario for Thursday evening in particular. Whether
or not it`s freezing drizzle or just drizzle will be based on
surface temperatures, but those will likely be just above freezing
in eastern MN and just below freezing in western WI, which means we
could have an impactful freezing drizzle event out of this for
Thursday night.

After Thursday night, the next feature to watch will be a strong
cold front coming in late in the day on Saturday. For the most part,
this looks to be a dry cold front, though some light snow can`t be
ruled out with the front. The bigger impacts though with this front
will be the winds and cool down coming behind it for Sunday and
Monday. For the winds, we have strong CAA driving steep lapse rates
with a tight pressure gradient and strong isallobaric high moving in,
so everything you want to see for driving strong winds. Looking at
EPS members, we will likely see wind gusts pushing 50 mph in our
normal wind favored areas. For now, stayed with the NBM for winds
Saturday night through Sunday, but once model spread decreases a bit
more, expect to see a good 10 mph added to the winds you currently
see in the forecast for winds Saturday night through Sunday. As for
the cool down, this front will be breaking of a chunk of arctic air
from northwest Canada, so it will be a pretty aggressive cool down,
with highs Sunday and Monday in the single digits and teens, with
lows Monday morning a few degrees on either side of zero. We`ll see
temperatures rebound to near normal for Tuesday out ahead of our
next arctic front coming in Tuesday night. This arctic front Tuesday
night also looks to be our next shot at getting a little bit of
light snow before we have another shot of chilly air to end
2025.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1053 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

There is a small area of IFR/MVFR fog near the Minnesota/Iowa
border late this evening. This is expected to gradually shift
north through the early morning hours, mainly impacting RWF and
MKT for a few hours. Winds are light and variable to start the
period, slightly increasing out of the southeast during the day.
There is still some uncertainty with how far north a low level
stratus deck will spread from Kansas/Missouri, though it still
looks to impact the southern third of Minnesota at least. Once
that stratus sets in, light and variable winds throughout the
first 2-3k feet of the atmosphere will likely make it hard to
get rid of any stratus that makes its way north. A more
widespread area of dense fog is possible overnight, though
confidence in extent and impact is too low to include at this
time.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR, Chc MVFR/IFR with chc DZ/FZDZ late. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
FRI...VFR, chc MVFR/IFR early. Wind light/variable.
SAT...VFR, chc MVFR. Wind S 5-10 kts bcmg NW 10-15G25 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...BED