Shakopee, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

490
FXUS63 KMPX 221116
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
516 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain, snow, sleet, and freezing rain this morning with light
  ice and snow accumulations expected.

- Mild temperatures and weak disturbances with low predictability
  are in store over the next 7 days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 308 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

As warm air continues to advect in this morning, isentropically
forced showers have lead us to issue a Winter Weather Advisory.
Despite low QPF, thermal profiles are warm enough that most of
the snow is melting to rain before reaching the surface. This
has lead to a wintry mix, with the greatest impact from the
freezing rain component of this mix. With the time of day,
early morning before sunrise, temperatures are near or just
below freezing. This will lead to ice accumulation and therefore
a Winter Weather Advisory was issued. As this area of showers
tracks farther to the east into Wisconsin, later this morning it
will move into cooler air. This will limit the amount of snow
that will melt and transition precipitation types over to all
snow. Road reports from the Minnesota Dept of Transportation
show increasing ice coverage on roads this morning. This will
spread north and east as the precipitation advances into the
Twin Cities metro area in advance of and for the early part of
the morning rush. Thankfully this is not a large area of showers
and it will move out of Minnesota by mid morning and out of
Wisconsin by late morning. The rest of the day will be mild with
high temperatures in the 30s.

Ridging will be dominant over the central CONUS for the much of
the week. This will allow warmer air to move in and keep us
above normal through the week and highs above freezing. The
warmest period appears to be on Christmas Day when 15 to 20 C
850 mb temperatures move over us. How warm your area gets at the
surface will depend on how much snow has melted before then.
Snow free areas will make a run at 50, while areas with snow
will be in the upper 30s to near 40. A small shortwave
disturbance could provide another chance for some mixed
precipitation late Christmas Day into Friday. Not strongly
forced, so not expecting much QPF at this time. A larger wave
appears likely for the weekend, but there is a split in long
range global guidance. The ECMWF deterministic and its ENS dig
the trough deeper and into our area, while the GFS and its GEFS
keep the better forcing to our north. So spread keeps us from
having much confidence on this system yet.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 507 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Precip will end over the MN TAF sites just prior to our TAF
issuance with the precip extending another hour or so beyond at
our WI TAF sites. Lower Cigs should exit quickly with SCT high
clouds through the remainder of the period. Winds to remain SE
throughout with speeds under 10kts before turning light and
variable overnight into Tuesday morning. As a result of light
winds and low level moisture, KEAU should see MVFR to possibly
IFR stratus develop early Tuesday morning.


KMSP...Freezing rain & sleet will end by the start the TAF
period. VFR conditions are expected for the remainder. of the
TAF. Winds look to turn light and variable overnight.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.
WED...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.
THU...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for Blue
     Earth-Carver-Dakota-Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Le Sueur-
     McLeod-Nicollet-Ramsey-Renville-Rice-Scott-Sibley-Steele-
     Waseca-Washington.
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for Dunn-
     Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-St. Croix.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...BPH