Shakopee, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

971
FXUS63 KMPX 262310
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
610 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat and humidity intensify Sunday with highs in the upper
  80s to mid 90s and heat indices in the upper 90s to mid 100s.

- Unsettled weather resumes late Sunday and lasts through early
  next week. Severe storms are possible Sunday night and heavy
  rainfall is possible Monday night.

- Cooler and drier conditions later next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

A few early day storms across western MN have finally dissipated
and the growth of CU from patchy overnight fog is also decaying
this afternoon. Temperatures have climbed into the mid and
upper 80s, with a few spots in western MN now touching 90. Dew
points have been mostly in the low 70s. Thunderstorm development
could occur this evening along the ND/SD border area and spread
east northeast overnight. Much of this activity should remain
north of the area, but cannot rule out a few storms as far south
as central MN through early Sunday.

Thermal ridging will build farther east for Sunday. Temperatures
shouldn`t be the main story, although the typical hot areas of
west central MN could make a run for the upper 90s if 925 mb
temps of +30C pan out. Rather, dew points in the mid to upper
70s will be the main driver of dangerous heat indices and
WBGTs. Steep mid level lapse rates and 700 mb temps exceeding
+12C by afternoon should keep the area capped, so the chance of
convective contamination of the airmass is low. Heat indices
are expected to reach around 110 across southwestern MN where
dew points will be in the upper 70s and temperatures in the mid
to upper 90s. Heat indices decrease to around 100 across central
MN and western WI. WBGTs in the upper 80s are also possible. The
Extreme Heat Watch has been upgraded to a warning or a Heat
Advisory depending on the resultant heat indices.

The ridge will build westward Sunday night while a trough
reaches central Canada. This will turn mid level winds more
westerly and speeds will increase to around 40 kts. Extreme
instability will develop Sunday afternoon, lingering well into
Sunday night. Residual boundaries from the morning convection
should get thunderstorm initiation in the afternoon over
northwest MN, which should be able to develop a cold pool and
dive southeast Sunday night. Models are beginning to handle this
scenario a bit better, and the SPC has upgraded to a Slight risk
across central MN and northern WI. Damaging winds will be the
main threat, but some large hail given the very steep lapse
rates and a couple QLCS tornadoes are also possible.

What becomes of Sunday night will set the stage for later Monday.
A boundary will lay out somewhere across the area, likely
beginning the day in southern MN then lifting north during the
afternoon. Very high pwats possibly greater than 2 inches, an
extremely unstable airmass remaining in place, and a
strengthening N-S LLJ later in the day impinging on the E-W
boundary could bring renewed thunderstorm development capable of
very heavy rain. Some guidance suggest the possibility of an
MCS developing and tracking east along the front, which would
lead to a damaging wind threat. Another possibility is for
training thunderstorms along the front, or along the southern
edge of the cold pool from the MCS. Confidence and
predictability for where this will set up are still low and
will depend on a number of things between now and then.
Solutions range from the heaviest rain falling as far north as
central MN and northern WI, to as far south as southeastern SD
and IA. Confidence in the occurrence of heavy rain is much
higher and some solutions highlight areas receiving greater than
3 or 4 inches.

The front should sag a little farther south for Tuesday which
should shunt most of the thunderstorm threat to IA, but spatial
differences in the frontal position warrant continuing low
PoPs Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Cooler and drier air will follow for the rest of the week with
surface high pressure building in.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 610 PM CDT Sat Jul 26 2025

Clear sky to FEW ceiling VFR this evening into tonight. Some
fog will be possible in eastern Minnesota into western
Wisconsin. Most likely a few hours of MVFR in the morning as
this fog occurs. There is a chance that some of the usual over-
performing sites like EAU could see IFR. After the fog clears,
VFR for the rest of the period. Storms chances will increase
late Sunday, but this is most likely after this TAF period.
Winds will remain southerly over this period.

KMSP...Could see some fog in the morning, mainly in the nearby
river valley rather than at the terminal. Late Sunday chances
will increase for some thunderstorms, so a PROB30 was added.
Storms in Minnesota are likely, but the location within the
state of these storms is still uncertain. So not yet sure if it
will impact the terminal area.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Chc MVFR A.M. -TSRA. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
WED...VFR. Chc MVFR A.M. -TSRA. Wind NE 5-10G15 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday for Benton-Douglas-
     Freeborn-Goodhue-Kanabec-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Stearns-
     Steele-Todd.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Chippewa-Lac Qui
     Parle-Stevens-Swift-Yellow Medicine.
     Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday for Anoka-
     Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chippewa-Chisago-Dakota-Faribault-
     Hennepin-Isanti-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-Le Sueur-Martin-
     McLeod-Meeker-Nicollet-Pope-Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-Rice-
     Scott-Sherburne-Sibley-Stevens-Swift-Waseca-Washington-
     Watonwan-Wright-Yellow Medicine.
WI...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Sunday for Barron-Chippewa-
     Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Borghoff
AVIATION...NDC