Savage, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

087
FXUS63 KMPX 070922
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
422 AM CDT Thu Aug 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A chance for thunderstorms to move through C MN tonight. A
  better chance of thunderstorms Friday evening into Saturday
  morning.

- Hot and humid Today & Friday.

- Highs return to the mid 80s with daily pop-up shower/storm
  chances next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Thu Aug 7 2025


Today & Tonight... Radar imagery highlights isolated thundershowers
across southern Minnesota early this morning. These showers have
formed in an area of elevated instability & subtle forcing that
shouldn`t persist for too long after daybreak. Taking a step back,
Goes water vapor imagery and RAP mesoanalysis reflect a mostly zonal
midlevel flow across the Upper Midwest, with a couple of weaker
embedded shortwave troughs moving through. An amplified ridge over
stretching from the Desert Southwest & southern Plains will build
further into the Midwest & the western Great Lakes today. This will
amp up low level moisture advection & warmer temperatures over the
next few days. All while a potent upper level trough digs into the
Pacific Northwest - the main driver of the weather across the
northern Plains & Upper Midwest for the next few days. The SPC
maintained a day 1 Marginal risk for nearly all of our CWA covering
the potential for a MCS to exit the Dakotas tonight and move across
north-central MN into Friday morning. The mesoscale environment is
forecast to be "okay" with mid-level lapse rates 6.5 to 7.5c/km, 25-
35kts bulk shear, and 1500-2000 j/kg CAPE, but the best forcing will
be to our north/west. Our forecast hodographs initially appear
strongly veered in the low levels, but our wind speeds are light and
don`t increase much until the mid levels. So the evolution of
convection is still somewhat uncertain for the next 24 to 48 hours.
Hi-res guidance offers two different solutions w/respect to tonight
into Friday that depend on the instability gradient placement. The
first is the HRRR solution that forms gnarly convection in North
Dakota this afternoon and grows upscale into a bow echo/MCS that
tracks due eastward into northern MN. This would still scrape our
northern most central MN counties tonight/early Friday morning -
likely sub-severe impacts. The second solution comes from the WRF
ARW/NSSL & NSSL MPAS guidance. This solution tracks the MCS through
ND, but our instability gradient is most southeasterly from NW MN to
WC WI. This would move the decaying MCS through tonight into early
Friday morning with isolated severe winds. There are other
influences that could lead to a spicier outcome, but for now the key
to focus on will be placement of the instability gradient & how
h700 temps look over the MPX CWA this evening. I`d favor the
glancing blow for our C MN counties at best while majority of
us, including the Twin Cities, remain dry through Friday
afternoon.

Friday & Saturday... Any lingering convection should exit by mid-
morning. If the more northerly solution is correct, it`ll be out of
the area by daybreak. Our heat & humidity will peak Friday
afternoon. Temperatures will warm into the upper 80s and lower 90s
with heat headline-type heat indices forecast Friday afternoon. Heat
indices will climb into the upper 90s to lower 100s for much of
southern MN & the Twin Cities metro. Dew point temperatures will
increase into low to mid 70s once again - a taste of the tropics (or
corn thanks to evapotranspiration) A caveat is that if
convection trends further south Friday morning, we`ll be less
likely to recover temperatures into the lower 90s.

The best chance for showers and storms will be Friday evening into
Saturday as an upper level trough kicks out of the moves out of the
eastern Rockies and into the northern Plains. A surface low
strengthens in the Plains & will provide favorable wind shear
profile & synoptic scale forcing in response to the upper level
trough. The SPC SWODY2 features a slight risk over W MN & marginal
for eastern & southern MN. Both seem reasonable given the
timing/placement of features with the best chance for severe over
the Dakotas for the second day in a row. There is a stronger signal
for an MCS/bow echo to track out of the Dakotas & trek down I-94
Friday night into Saturday. Latest guidance favors this solution.
Our limiting factor is the timing. If things initiate earlier
of ND, there`s a possibility it can establish a cold pool and
track into W MN by Friday evening we could see a better threat.
Current timing of this isn`t great, but an earlier solution
would provide us with that better chance locally vs moving
through later overnight. Either way there will be potential for
damaging winds as this moves across the state into Saturday AM.

Saturday will rebound temperature wise with highs in the mid 80s &
dew points still elevated in the upper 60s & 70s across E & S MN and
WC WI while drier air will push into W MN Saturday afternoon. This
boundary could trigger additional convection across SE MN into WC
WI. A Day 3 Marginal risk highlights the best risk will be S & E of
the MPX CWA. Regardless, it`ll be worth paying attention to for
those with outdoor plans Saturday across S/SE MN & W WI.

Sunday through Thursday... Temperatures remain warm, in the mid 80s
for highs, but the better low level moisture will stay confined to
the south of Minnesota & W Wisconsin through the middle of next
week. This should keep us on the drier side of the pattern and "less
humid" for mid-August. We`d likely have to monitor the pop-up
thunderstorm threat given diurnal cycles but severe threat would be
little to none. A more organized system looks to arrive just beyond
the forecast period & should bring another widespread chance for
precipitation .

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 417 AM CDT Thu Aug 7 2025

A mixed bag of LIFR/IFR across the region given light winds, low
level moisture trapped beneath the nocturnal stable boundary
layer, and mostly clear skies. This fog/br will quickly burn out
and lead to VFR conditions for the remainder of the TAF period.
There is a good amount of uncertainty with the convective
evolution this tonight into Friday AM that led to keeping all
sites dry with no mention of TS. I`d expect greater confidence
w/18Zs and likely introduction of PROB30/TEMPO groups for
AXN and maybe STC. Winds pick up out of the SSE around 10 knots
before turning light and variable tonight.

KMSP... Any lingering mist/fog should dissipate by issuance.
Uncertainty with convective evolution over next 30 hours so
opted to keep MSP dry.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Chc MVFR/-TSRA late. Wind SE 10-20 kts.
SAT...VFR. Chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind SW 10-15 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind SW 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...BPH