Rosemount, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

173
FXUS63 KMPX 122014
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
314 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple rounds of rain through Friday afternoon with an inch
  or two most likely.

- Heaviest rain currently expected over central MN, where 3 to 4
  inches could fall.

- Active pattern will continue, with multiple chances for rain.
  Past today and tomorrow the next round of substantial
  rainfall looks likely Tue/Wed next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Today and tomorrow... The frontal boundary has been slow to
advance farther north today. This will keep the chance for
strong to severe storms in southern Minnesota, closer to this
boundary. CAMs have been consistently showing ample instability
building and satisfactory shear such that if CI occurs a storm
could grow in the strength quickly. With low LCLs it also won`t
take much for tornadoes to form. So, all severe threats could
be on the table if we can get deep convection to occur. Overall
though it has been widespread rain across central Minnesota,
which will be the prevailing pattern for today and into
tomorrow. The broader synoptic scale forcing will continue
along central Minnesota with more mesoscale forced features to
the south. So rain amounts in southern Minnesota will be very
convectively driven with more of a rain shower setup across
central Minnesota. The low level jet will increase tonight
promoting additional moisture transport to feed into the heavy
rain setup across central Minnesota. Looking into CAM and CAM
ensemble solutions this seems like a close call for the Twin
Cities metro. Depending on the model solution this will just
miss the metro to the north or cover parts of the metro area.
This is important to note as the amount of rain and the fact
that current soil moisture will allow for a lot of absorption
means that any flash flooding threat will be more urban in
nature. So if the Twin Cities gets missed the overall threat
will be greatly decreased. This will keep other urban areas like
St Cloud within the area to be watched. The best chance for
rainfall will be overnight with rain continuing into Friday.
Rain chances will shift from west to east across Minnesota and
into Wisconsin on Friday related to the movement of upper level
forcing. Some remaining showers could persist into Friday
night.

This weekend... Overall active period continues into the weekend
with Saturday looking to be a quieter day as we are mostly
between rounds of rain chances. Overall the same boundary
driving the rain chances today and tomorrow remains fairly
stationary and continues to lift this weekend. It is not until
next week when the pattern shifts from this same boundary.

Next week... There will be more warm and moist air moving in
next week, which set us up for more rain chances. AI/ML also
suggests that there could be chances for some severe within this
pattern as well. Which on a conceptual model level makes sense
as when we get warm moist air moving in, that will further
destabilize the atmosphere. An unstable atmosphere increases
not just rain, but storm chances. Zooming out to a model
ensemble picture for next week we still lots of member to member
variability. However there is overall pattern agreement with a
wet week ahead. It is when this rain falls, rather than if rain
falls where the models vary. So keep an eye out for further
updates on both the heavy rain and severe weather risks for next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Intermittent showers are expected with bursts of heavier rain
with some thunderstorms possible for our western sites in the
afternoon and overnight hours. MVFR will prevail with some dips
to IFR during periods of heavy rain. Eastern sites will remain
VFR longer due to the dry easterly low level flow. High end
MVFR/low VFR conditions may return towards the end of the period
for some, but overall, expecting MVFR to win out. Winds will be
out of the east around 10-15kts with a few gusts in the 20-25kt
range. Overall - this TAF period is rather low confidence given
the uncertainty on where the frontal boundary sets up across
southern/central MN & W WI.

KMSP...Thunderstorm chances appear to stay south of MSP
terminal. VFR cigs through the evening before MVFR arrives after
sunset through tomorrow morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...MVFR -SHRA chc IFR early, bcmg VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts.
SUN...VFR, chc MVFR late w/TSRA. Wind SE at 10 kts.
MON...VFR/MVFR -TSRA. Wind S 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NDC
AVIATION...BPH