Rochester, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

149
FXUS63 KARX 051805
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
105 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Our stretch of cold weather continues through the first half
  of the new week, with the coldest temperatures coming Monday
  night as lows crater into the teens. Temperatures rebound back
  to around normal for Thursday into next weekend.

- Several passing shots of light rain or snow showers today and
  Monday.

- Widespread rain starting Tuesday night and continuing off and
  on through the end of the week. The general setup doesn`t
  overly favor the excessive rainfall amounts we saw over the
  last few days, but could still affect river levels.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Today: Slightly Warmer, Rain Showers Late

A downslope-modified airmass advects off the High Plains and
across the mid to lower Missouri River valley later today ahead
of an approaching upper tropospheric shortwave trough. This
airmass clips the forecast area, boosting high temperatures back
closer to average (low to mid 50s). However, this warm spell
will be short-lived as a cold front arrives in the late
afternoon/evening, bringing with it scattered light rain
showers, possibly mixing with snow into central Wisconsin if
profiles can cool fast enough. Impacts from this rain/snow
should be negligible, but sets the stage for a cold start to the
week.

Monday/Tuesday: Colder

Surface high pressure builds southeastward through the day on
Monday with steady cold air advection through the day keeping
highs confined in the mid-30s to low 40s with trends favoring
more clouds than sun and possibly even low-topped diurnal showers.
As the high pressure centroid approaches in the late afternoon
and evening, skies should clear and temperatures fall quickly
overnight. The main question is--how much? There is a solid
signal for lows to fall into the teens, with a 10-30% chance for
lows to fall into the single digits, mainly north of I-90 and
east of the Mississippi River. Return flow doesn`t set in until
later Tuesday, heralding the arrival of a warmer and wetter
pattern for the middle to later part of the week.

Tuesday Night - Friday: Multiple Rounds of Precipitation

Increasing theta-e advection and isentropic lift ahead of an
approaching wave riding the U.S./Canadian border will generate
light showers Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning with
overall QPF values looking to only be a couple of tenths. A line
of convection develops along the advancing cold front Wednesday
evening/night, but confidence in rainfall amounts over an inch
is low (<10% chance) owing to uncertainties in the evolution
and strength of the convection.

Shifting later into the week as the upper level pattern takes
on more of a zonal orientation, confidence remains low on the
exact placement of the surface baroclinic zone, which will play
heavily into the trajectory and strength of the subsequent storms.
Inter and intra-model variability remain high at this point and
more details on the placement of the rain will come into focus
in the next few days. As it stands now, areas that do see rain
Thursday and Friday (a 40-60% chance) will have a decent shot of
eclipsing the 1" mark (20-30% chance).

As more of a southwesterly flow pattern sets in by next
weekend, the risk for heavier rainfall amounts will increase as
deeper moisture streams north from the Gulf. Again, placement
and timing differences make it difficult to discern any further
details. With rivers in northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin
likely still elevated as we head through the week, any
additional rainfall will need to be monitored carefully.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Ongoing VFR expected to mostly hold through the evening into
today as a band of increasing precipitation chances progressing
northwest to southeast through the evening hours into tonight
brings chances for MVFR/VFR ceilings. While main impact will be
MVFR- IFR ceilings, may see some visibility reductions as line
progresses as well. MVFR-IFR ceilings expected through Monday
morning in the wake of the frontal boundary.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

The dry conditions have allowed floodwater to progress
downstream and cancellation of upstream Flood Warnings along the
Kickapoo River in southwest Wisconsin. Expect similar through
the start of the week as floodwater continue downstream.

Precipitation chances tonight expected to have limited impact as
overall amounts <0.1" expected. Although, could see slight
delay in crests or increase in observed heights temporarily.

Subsequent, widespread precipitation chances Tuesday night will
be important to monitor as river levels expected to respond
through Wednesday as heavier rainfall persists through midweek.
Amount of recovery will be main forecast detail to monitor over
the next 48 hours.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Skow
AVIATION...JAR
HYDROLOGY...JAR