Rochester, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

025
FXUS63 KARX 242329
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
629 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storm chances return this weekend and into early next week
  with the potential for severe storms Saturday and Sunday.

- Heat headlines are in effect for portions of the forecast
  area on Saturday and continuing through Monday as heat indices
  will be near 100 degrees or higher for most locations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Today-Monday: Heat Returns This Weekend Into Early Next Week, Storm
Chances

After one last nice day, the upper level ridge becomes more
pronounced and builds northward. Before this ridge builds in, there
remains southeasterly winds in the lowest levels, which will help to
keep temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s for today. Heading into
Saturday the upper level ridge begins to build northward. This ridge
will be at its strongest on Sunday with 850mb mean temperatures,
based on the LREF, of 23 to 27C across the CWA. Southwesterly flow
also returns in the low levels which in turn will increase dewpoints
through early next week. If we include the corn sweat, dewpoints are
expected to be in the 70s, with some locations in northeast Iowa and
southeast Minnesota potentially seeing 80+ degree dewpoints. When
combining these dewpoints with the heat in place, heat indices are
expected to be in the 100 to 110F range. These hot temperatures
creep into our CWA on Saturday and we have issued a Heat Advisory
for portions of southeast Minnesota. As a result of the hot
temperatures for Sunday, we have issued an Extreme Heat Watch for
much of the forecast area for Sunday and again for portions of
northeast Iowa and far southwest Wisconsin for Monday. Conditions
slightly improve on Monday as ensembles favor a slight southern
shift in the ridge, with the hottest conditions in northeast Iowa,
southwest Wisconsin, and the Mississippi River Valley with heat
indices in the 100 to 110F range. One thing to note is that there is
a little uncertainty on meeting heat advisory or extreme heat
warning criteria due to potential convection and smoke from Canadian
wildfires. While the smoke is not expected to be a problem near the
surface, it will be aloft and depending on the concentration of
smoke, this could have an impact on temperatures by lowering them a
bit.

Focusing on the storm chances, today remains dry as we have that
light southeast flow near the surface. A couple of weak shortwaves
move through on Saturday allowing for increased rain chances for
western Wisconsin for Saturday morning and again for portions of
north central Wisconsin for Saturday evening. With the forecast area
remaining in northwest flow aloft, any shortwave that follows the
jet stream will potentially impact the forecast area. The first
instance is on Sunday evening when a potential MCS moves through.
Guidance continues to favor southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa
as the locations that this could impact, however with any MCS, the
location will remain uncertain until the day of. Throughout the day
on Sunday, there will be plenty of instability (2500 to 3500 J/kg of
MLCAPE) and deep layer shear (40 to 45 kts of 0-6km shear) for
storms, however the main uncertainty for storm development is
capping as temperatures near 850mb will be around 23 to 27C. More
thunderstorms are possible Monday morning, however the severe storm
threat should decrease heading into morning hours.

Tuesday-Friday: Warm Temperatures Continue, Storm Chances Continue

Ensemble guidance continues to suggest that this ridge will shift
slightly westward keeping the Upper Midwest in northwest flow aloft.
This will allow for waves to ride the top of the ridge and
potentially impact the region giving us more rain chances.
Temperatures look to be slightly cooler than Sunday and Monday due
to the ridge shifting a little further west. Highs are currently in
the mid 80s to near 90F for most locations through the end of the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

VFR conditions this evening will give way to IFR stratus overnight
as moisture advection becomes trapped under the nocturnal inversion.
However, this will likely disperse by middle to late morning as
diurnal mixing begins on Saturday with VFR conditions returning by
afternoon. Cannot rule out (~10% chance) an isolated storm near and
north of I-90 during the late afternoon on Saturday, however
confidence is too low at this point to include in the TAF.
Otherwise, winds will remain from the south/southwest at around 6-12
kts throughout the TAF period.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday
     evening for WIZ053>055-061.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday
     evening for WIZ029-032>034-041-042.
MN...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for MNZ079-086-
     087-094.
     Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday
     evening for MNZ079-086>088-094>096.
IA...Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday
     evening for IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cecava
AVIATION...Naylor