Rochester, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

335
FXUS63 KARX 232343
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
543 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably warm through the week with highs running nearly
  10 degrees above normal, but colder air lurks on the horizon
  for Sunday and Monday with temperatures falling by 20-25
  degrees.

- Potential for drizzle Wednesday afternoon and evening,
  but temperatures should be warm enough to prevent freezing
  drizzle issues.

- Next chance of widespread precipitation comes Thursday night
  into Friday morning when freezing rain and/or drizzle may
  occur along and north of Interstate 94.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Relative warmth continues through Saturday

Longwave ridging builds over the central CONUS through Thursday with
the warm air mass largely remaining in place through Saturday. NBM
confidence in highs in the low 30s to mid 40s remains high with NBM
interquartile ranges of 5 degrees or less through Saturday. Have
thus elected to keep NBM output for temperatures, good for highs
around 10 to even 15 degrees above normal.

The warm temperatures don`t last forever as a longwave trough will
move east over the Canadian Prairies and then over Lake Superior,
ushering a strong cold front through the region Saturday night.
Single digit lows are favored (70-95%) to return Sunday night as a
result.

Christmas eve mainly liquid drizzle potential

Tomorrow, weak shortwave ejects downstream within quasi-zonal flow
aloft. As this occurs, low level moist warm advection looks to take
place, leading to potential for another round of drizzle. Have
continued to place mentions of drizzle across a good portion of the
forecast area as most guidance suggests shallow boundary layer
moisture developing while lift continues through this layer into the
afternoon/evening. Good news is that, aside from the 23.12z NAM,
most guidance has surface air and wet bulb temperatures remaining
above freezing during this time frame. Have therefore only permitted
limited mentions for freezing drizzle in west central WI, where
temps may briefly fall below freezing as the drizzle falls. In any
case, moist layer depth is more shallow as one travels north, so the
chance for any freezing drizzle occurring is low (15-20%).

Thursday night into Friday freezing rain/drizzle potential

A little more substantial wave looks to eject eastward Christmas
into Friday. Before this occurs, a separate strong upper wave looks
to dive southeast from Ontario to New England, leading to a surface
high building north of Lake Superior. This high will help keep
surface temps in our area near or below freezing into Thursday
night. Thus, as the Christmas wave translates eastward, low level
southerly moist advection should occur and then potentially overrun
the cooler air near the surface, leading to freezing rain Thursday
night into Friday. 23.13z NBM probabilities for at least a trace of
freezing rain are generally around 15% along I-94, rising as one
moves north to near 50% in eastern Taylor County. Main source of
uncertainty at this time does not appear to be the thermal profile
in our northeast - guidance continues to suggest support for
freezing drizzle or freezing rain - but overall forcing for ascent,
as slightly out of phase northern and southern stream wave pattern
noted in previous discussion continues with the 23.12z cycle. The
southern stream wave would focus precip generation in SW WI
eastward, where surface temperatures would be just a bit (~1 degree
C) too warm for freezing precip while the northern stream wave may
focus precip to the north and northeast of our CWA. In summary,
while areas along and north of I-94 would be very likely to see
freezing rain/drizzle if precip occurs, overall potential for seeing
any precip at all in these areas remains around 40-55%. Finally,
total amounts are favored to be low should this potential be
realized, but any is enough for travel impacts on untreated roads.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 542 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Aviation impacts are not expected overnight as high pressure
moves eastward through the region, leading to light and variable
winds along with passing high clouds. The only caveat being a
patch of IFR stratus that has developed over southwest Minnesota
this evening. Uncertain if this stratus will be able to shift
further east as greater low level saturation is depicted west of
I-35, but if this patch is able to shift eastward, a period of
IFR ceilings are possible for those west of the Mississippi
River including KRST.

On Wednesday, winds will become southerly as the aforementioned
high pressure shifts into the eastern Great Lakes region. Low
level moisture will increase in response to these southerly
winds, leading to lowering clouds throughout the afternoon,
becoming MVFR for those south of I-90 and west of the
Mississippi River by the evening. A period of drizzle is also
possible during the afternoon hours Wednesday, mainly after 18z,
as this low level moisture moves northward. There is some
probability that drizzle is able to develop at the TAF sites
(10-20%), but confidence is highest over northeast Iowa into
southwest Wisconsin (30-50%), so have left mentions out of the
TAFs with this issuance.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ferguson
AVIATION...Falkinham