Rochester, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

731
FXUS63 KARX 160525
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1225 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dangerous and historic winter storm continues this evening
  through the overnight.

- Later this afternoon and into the early evening everyone will
  see more snow and their winds increase. Sustained northwest
  winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts of 40 to 55 mph will be
  possible during this time. This will result in blizzard
  conditions across the forecast area through the overnight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Today-Monday: Dangerous Winter Storm Continues into Monday

There was quite a bit of snow this morning for portions of southeast
Minnesota and western Wisconsin. From northern Olmsted county over
to southern Jackson county, there is a wide swath of 12 to 20 inches
of snow. Some localized areas have actually seen a little over 20
inches in these areas! There is currently a break in the snow for
the next 1 to 4 hours or so but recent radar trends from KDMX shows
snow filling in for central and northern Iowa and KMPX shows the
slowly moving deformation band approaching southeastern Minnesota.
As a result, snow will fill in to the rest of the CWA during the
late afternoon and into the evening. Just like how the main snow
band shifted south a couple of counties, there is still some
uncertainty on how much more snow we will get.

Looking at the low and mid level frontogenesis, there is quite a bit
of lift going on as the surface low deepens just to our southeast.
This frontogenesis shifts over our area later this afternoon and
slowly moves through the forecast area. Normally this much lift in
the DGZ would indicate good accumulation rates, however the stronger
winds will break apart the better dendrites. Winds will begin to
pick up later this afternoon and evening as the low deepens,
resulting in sustained northwest winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts of
40 to 55 mph. These stronger winds will continue through the
overnight and gradually diminish during the late morning and the mid
afternoon. Usually snow ratios with this setup are higher, more in
the 20:1 or so range, however with the wind speed, we are
forecasting snow ratios more in the 13 to 15:1 range. These are our
best guess ratios and depending on how strong the winds are these
ratios could very well change. How much these factors interact will
help in determining how much more snow we end up getting. Regardless
of the exact snow amounts, the strong winds will result in blizzard
or near blizzard conditions over the area during the late afternoon
through the overnight. Our current forecasted snow amounts for
southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa are between 3 and 6 inches
while north central Wisconsin is between 3 and 8 inches and
southwest into central Wisconsin is between 5 and 12 inches.


Temperatures over the next 36 hours will be the coldest temperatures
we have felt in a little while. Low temperatures tonight drop into
the single digits and low teens and coupling that with the stronger
winds, feels like temperatures for Monday morning will be down in
the single digits to teens below zero. Mondays high temperatures
only get into the teens to low 20s which are 20 to 25 degrees below
normal. By Monday night, temperatures dip back down from near 0F to
the single digits below zero. Winds really diminish Monday night and
skies clear up after midnight, meaning that low temperatures could
end up being cooler than forecasted. There is still around 5 to 10
mph of wind to compete with, so this will be something to monitor.

Tuesday-Wednesday: Light Snow Chance

While remaining in northwest flow, another clipper moves through the
area, increasing snow chances. This will be quick hitter and drop
only 1 to 2 inches of snow with it. The cold weather continues for
Tuesday as highs are only in the low 20s and low temperatures are in
low to mid teens.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1221 AM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Ongoing snow east of a CCY-ONA-MDZ arc and blowing snow across
those areas and farther west are the main concerns for aviation
interests. This snow and blowing snow will slowly depart west to
east over the next 6-18 hours with conditions slowly improving
from LIFR/IFR to MVFR for Monday afternoon, when widespread
stratocumulus at or around 1500-2000 feet is expected. Some
flurries may occur as well through 00z Tuesday. Eventually,
ceilings should scatter out, allowing for VFR conditions late in
the period. Looking ahead, another round of snow is very likely
(80%) after 18z Tuesday.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Blizzard Warning until 7 AM CDT this morning for WIZ017-029-
     032>034.
     Blizzard Warning until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for WIZ041>044-
     053>055-061.
MN...Blizzard Warning until 7 AM CDT this morning for MNZ079-
     086>088-094>096.
IA...Blizzard Warning until 7 AM CDT this morning for IAZ008>011-
     018-019-029-030.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cecava
AVIATION...Ferguson