Richfield, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

948
FXUS63 KMPX 111846
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
146 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance for a strong to severe storm or two across southern MN
  this afternoon. Damaging wind and large hail are the primary
  concerns.

- Multiple rounds of rain continue through Friday afternoon.
  Rainfall totals of 1-2" most likely, with upwards of 4" possible.

- Brief break for the weekend before near daily shower and storm
  chances arrive late Sunday through the end of the period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 139 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Today/Tonight...A narrow band of rain showers driven by 700mb
frontogenesis has persisted across central Minnesota for much of the
day. Low-level dry air north and south of the boundary has worked to
keep things mostly dry, with even a few peeks of sun (especially
across southern MN). Water vapor imagery captures the eastward
movement of a wave moving out of the Dakotas amid zonal flow aloft.
A line of showers and thunderstorms has developed ahead of the wave
and is advancing east into western Minnesota this afternoon. PoPs
are greatest along and south of I-94, though the best chance
for thunderstorms will be closer to I-90. SPC mesoanalysis
captures the position of the instability gradient positioned
across far northern Iowa. As the line/complex of showers and
thunderstorms moves east, the southern-most convection rooted
along the instability gradient will pose the greatest risk for
an isolated damaging wind gust or instance of large hail. This
is reflected by SPC`s Day 1 Marginal Risk area. A Slight Risk
was added along and south of the state border, where a more
potent environment exists.

Thursday...The main batch of convection will move east/southeast
this evening, however showers and a few storms may linger across
southern Minnesota overnight as the low-level jet intersects the
stationary frontal boundary near the MN/IA border. By daybreak
Thursday, the next upper-level shortwave of interest if forecast to
eject over the northern Great Plains, which will support the
development of a surface low across the Dakotas. The increase in
warm advection east of the surface low will push the aforementioned
stationary boundary north into southern Minnesota tomorrow. CAMs
depict multiple rounds of scattered showers and storms moving from
northwest to southeast along the boundary through Thursday afternoon
and evening. Similar to today, the best chance for a strong to
severe thunderstorm will be with any convection rooted near the
instability gradient, which will align with the position of the
stationary boundary. Given the forecast northward progression of the
boundary, the Day 2 severe weather outlook features a larger
Marginal Risk that spans most of central/southern Minnesota and a
portion of western Wisconsin. Once again, looking at isolated
instances of damaging wind or large hail with stronger cells.
However, cannot rule out an isolated spin-up (best chance with any
discrete cells across southern MN).

Thursday Night/Friday...The approach of the surface low Thursday
night will work in tandem with the strengthening low-level jet to
set the stage for the for what will likely be the most widespread
round of heavy rain over the next few days. Factor in the influence
of both Pacific and Gulf moisture, a transient but notable
frontogenic component, and the west to east orientation of the mid-
level frontal boundary and the pieces are in place for a longer
duration heavy rain event with training likely. We have noted a
northward shift in the heaviest rain axis across the guidance over
the past 36 hours and the 12z guidance has generally continued that
theme. There are two "camps" that are becoming apparent in the
guidance, one that features a muted northward progression of the mid-
level front and the other that displays the heaviest precipitation
axis north of I-94 across central MN. The reality is that it`s tough
to say which camp will be correct, which is why WPC continues to
display a large Slight Risk ERO across all of central and southern
MN. Would tend to think solutions that display the "stair-step" idea
starting with todays round of QPF across southern MN/northern IA,
tomorrow`s convective round across southern MN, and the Thurs PM/Fri
AM round across central MN would fit the conceptual model given the
anticipated northward movement of the boundaries and theta-e rich
air over the next 72 hours. Confidence is lower with the convective
nature of the precipitation (thus rainfall rates) in the
northernmost solutions given that the better instability is forecast
to be displaced to the south. So...with all of this in mind, how
much rain can be expected for my hometown? Confidence is high in 1"+
rainfall amounts between now and Friday afternoon at just about all
locations across the MPX coverage area. 3-day totals between 1-3"
are likely, with localized totals approaching 4"+ on the table if
multiple rounds of rain can train over the same area. Should trends
in the guidance come to fruition, this zone will likely on the
northern extent of tomorrow afternoon/evening`s round of convection
and the southernmost extent of the late night batch of heavy rain.
(In other words along/north of I-94 per the 12z guidance) Additional
shifts are possible and will be able to lean more on the hi-res
guidance in forthcoming forecast periods.

Weekend & Beyond...Dry weather returns to open the weekend, as an
upper ridge axis shifts east over the northern CONUS. Temperatures
will be cooler following the multi-day rainy period, with highs in
the upper 60s/near 70 on Friday and Saturday. Latest NBM captures
warming back into the mid to upper 70s Sunday, with warm
advection supporting highs in the low 80s next week. Active
weather returns early next week as multiple shortwaves eject
eastward from western troughing. We have daily 30-50% chances
for showers and thunderstorms as a result of the forecast
pattern. It`s too soon to discuss specifics, however next week
looks quite unsettled with an increase in ML severe weather
probs through the middle of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

VFR conditions with some light rain showers today and tonight.
KMKT and KRWF could see some thunder, so added a small tempo
group this afternoon. Rain will diminish overnight, but we`ll
see another area of showers and thunderstorms lift northward on
Thursday, in addition to some low clouds lifting up from the
south as well.

KMSP...Primarily VFR conditions today and tonight with some
MVFR rain showers moving in later this afternoon and evening.
Winds will be out of the east on Thursday, with rain chances
increasing in the morning, and thunder chances increasing in the
afternoon and evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...RA/MVFR likely, chc TSRA/IFR early. Wind ENE 5-10 kts.
SAT...MVFR clouds/-ra with IFR possible early, then VFR. Wind E
5-10 kts.
SUN...VFR with MVFR possible. Wind SE at 10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Strus
AVIATION...JRB