Prior Lake, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

275
FXUS63 KMPX 241146
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
546 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Two cold fronts over the next week will drop highs into the
  20s and low 30s mid week, then teens and 20s over Thanksgiving
  weekend.

- Confidence continues to increase in a mix of rain and snow
  tonight into early Monday morning. Minimal accumulation is
  expected, with up to an inch in central Minnesota.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Widespread mid-level clouds remain in place across Minnesota and
western Wisconsin early this Sunday morning. Temperatures remain
in the upper 30s for most, which is the typical high this time
of year. This will change as a cold front enters western
Minnesota later today, bringing cool air and precipitation
chances with it. Lower clouds are expected to develop midday as
we warm into the low 40s, although no precipitation is expected
until profiles saturate closer to 7PM.

Looking closer at tonight`s precipitation chances, confidence
remains high in central Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin
seeings rain transition to snow late tonight into early Monday.
Advection of higher amounts of potential vorticity ahead of the
frontal passage in combination with relatively warm air in
place from earlier in the day will allow light precipitation to
form overhead. Forecast soundings show saturation at sites along
a line from Alexandria through St.Cloud to Rice Lake and
Ladysmith mainly after 6pm, with most areas expected to see
rain/snow after 9pm. Ensemble guidance has 80 to 90% of its
members showing at least some precipitation for areas north of
this line. Precipitation will spread west to east, beginning as
rain for the first few hours before transitioning to light snow
as the thermal profile cools. Sub-freezing temperatures will
linger into Monday morning, meaning there may be slick spots on
road for areas that do see snow. Snow amounts went up slightly
with a minor bump in QPF (up to 0.05-0.1" liquid), but are still
expected to be light and generally less than an inch.

Looking beyond this system, the cooler air looks to remain for
the foreseeable future. High pressure behind the Monday system
will allow for a quiet and seasonable mid-week. The second cold
front of the period will make itself known on Thanksgiving day
as an upper level trough dips down from Canada. At present, the
front is favored to pass through dry, but a splattering of
20-30% PoPs remains in the grids on Thanksgiving to represent a
slight chance for precip. This would be all snow given
Thursday`s chilly high temps in the mid 20s. Temperatures don`t
look to improve looking beyond Thanksgiving, with highs on
Friday and into next weekend only getting colder as Arctic air
settles in with an otherwise quiet weather pattern. Pairing
these temperatures with widespread wind gusts of 15 to 20MPH,
wind chill temperatures will be brisk (dare we say sub-zero) on
Black Friday. This cold won`t be short lived, with single digit
lows persisting at least through the weekend. If we don`t see
sub-zero wind chills on Friday, we will on Saturday and Sunday
morning.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 538 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

Biggest uncertainty remains when cigs will drop from VFR to MVFR
today ahead of precip tonight. MKT is the only site without
precip in the taf, with all other sites expecting to see at
least light rain then snow. Winds will shift from easterly to
north/northeasterly by the end of the period. Some visibility
reductions to MVFR/IFR are likely during the time rain/snow is
falling, but should generally remain at or above 3SM.

KMSP...Later today, light rain will develop. This should change
over to snow as surface temperatures fall overnight. Any snow
accumulation should only be a dusting or less.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts.
THU...VFR/MVFR, slight chance -SN. Wind NE 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PV
AVIATION...PV