Fridley, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

754
FXUS63 KMPX 142052
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
252 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer temperatures return to open the weekend. Highs warm into
  the upper 50s Saturday. Get outside!

- Unsettled, very active upper-level pattern to bring the return
  of precipitation chances across the Upper Midwest next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 248 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

Call it a classic gray November day across the region thanks to
stubborn stratus that has been slow to clear. For most this has
slowed warming and capped temperatures in the 40s. Interestingly, a
narrow hole in the stratus allowed for some sunshine across western
Wisconsin. Surface observations responded with highs in the low 50s
at Eau Claire. The stratus deck is expected to slowly clear from
west to east tonight. There is a degree of uncertainty in how far
east clearing will take place, however locations that do clear out
have the potential for patchy fog to develop. This scenario is
reflected in the grids across western Minnesota, where the western
extent of the stratus deck has started to show signs of erosion.
There remains some uncertainty in the sky cover forecast Friday, as
various forecast soundings have trended in the pessimistic
direction, thus keeping stratus around through the afternoon. We`ll
hope for some filtered sunshine, but given the seasonality and light
winds would not be entirely surprised if the overcast appearance
wins out across much of the area. Height rises associated with an
approaching thermal ridge will shift over the Upper Midwest to open
the weekend. At the same time, the surface pressure gradient will
tighten heading into Saturday morning as low pressure deepens across
the northern Great Plains. The combination of height rises and
increasing southerly flow will yield a seasonably mild Saturday
(Highs in the mid to upper 50s). The aforementioned surface low is
forecast to track into southern Canada by Sunday and the system`s
trailing cold front will pass through the region in dry form early
Sunday. Westerly flow will knock highs down into the upper 40s/near
50 degrees to close the weekend.

The forecast evolves into a much more active regime next week. It
starts Monday as a vigorous cutoff upper low over the southwestern
CONUS races northeast across the Great Plains. Deep surface low
pressure is forecast to eject east of the Rockies and move towards
the Upper Midwest, in tandem with the approach of the cutoff low. A
broad shield of precipitation will precede the surface low into
Minnesota and Wisconsin. There is a high degree of confidence in a
prolonged period of rainfall Monday into Tuesday, which is reflected
in a significant uptick in NBM`s PoPs (80-90% early Tuesday!). The
forecast becomes more uncertain following the initial round of
widespread soaking rainfall. Large scale phasing of the cutoff low
and incoming upper-level trough is handled differently across the
model suite. This is quite common in the day 6-7 period, in fact it
will probably be a few more days before we can start to lock into a
solution one way or another. Should a solution that efficiently
wraps cold air into the system come to fruition, we will better be
able to address the likelihood of snowfall/amounts for the middle to
end of next week. There is growing consensus that the end of next
week will feel colder, with highs closer to average in the mid to
upper 30s/lows in the upper 20s.

The second half of next week can be summed up in three key pieces:
where and when do the upper level features phase, how efficiently
does cold air wrap into the system, and what is the eventual
residence time of precipition (do we end up with a slow moving
upper low across the upper Midwest through the end of the week
[Euro] or is the departure of the upper level system more
progressive [GFS]). The middle of next week looks wet and windy,
but it`s a little too soon to know if we can throw wintry into
the mix locally. Global guidance has trended in warmer direction
today, with fewer ensemble members producing snow at MSP in the
Wed-Fri timeframe. Stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1140 AM CST Thu Nov 14 2024

A low stratus deck remains in place across MN/WI this afternoon.
This morning`s dense fog has largely dissipated, with some
lingering at RWF for the initial TAF period. Ceiling will
gradually increase from IFR to MVFR before sunset. Most areas
will remain as MVFR through tonight, though some pockets of VFR
appear to develop, primarily across west/central Minnesota sites.
Areas that manage to scatter out will likely see another round
of fog develop with MVFR/IFR levels likely early Friday morning.
If winds go calm, patchy dense fog is likely to be more
widespread. If winds stay elevated at near 5kts, low stratus
will prevail. MVFR conditions are likely with IFR- or- worse
conditions possible. Fog & low stratus will scatter out by
Friday afternoon returning to VFR conditions by the end of TAF
period.

KMSP...MVFR ceilings are likely to remain in place through this
Friday morning. Another round of pre-dawn fog is possible, but
MSP may avoid any tangible impacts w/respect to vsby. At this
point, have held conditions in MVFR range but worse conditions
are certainly possible for the Friday morning push. VFR
conditions are then expected by midday Friday and onward.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind SE 15G25-30kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind W 10-15G25kts.
MON...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Strus
AVIATION...BPH