Elk River, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

484
FXUS63 KMPX 221130
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
530 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Trending drier for the Sunday night into Monday period. Dusting of
snow most likely in western Wisconsin along with potential for
freezing drizzle

- A warming trend will occur this week with highs in the low to
  mid 30s by Christmas and near 40s possible by later in the
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

With the recent quick burst of cold air on its way out, the low for
today occurred at midnight as temperatures will continue to rise
through the day. Afternoon highs should reach the upper 20s in
central MN and low 30s in southern MN and western WI. Partly to
mostly cloudy skies are expected again today ahead of a brief
shortwave disturbance to arrive late tonight. Looking at this
shortwave in more detail, recent guidance has significantly cut QPF
across the area, with only a few hundredths expected in western WI
and just a trace in central MN. This decrease in forecast QPF is a
result of an unevenly saturated vertical profile. Forecast soundings
depict discontinuities between when things saturate at different
levels, with a decent amount of dry air to overcome. This isn`t to
say nothing will happen, but we have scaled back the forecast quite
a bit from a few days ago. Freezing drizzle is still possible,
particularly in western WI where forcing and saturation align early
Monday morning. For anyone with travel plans on Monday, it is a good
idea to remain alert to weather conditions as it doesn`t take much
to create a slick surface. In all, a few tenths of snow are possible
in western WI, with MN seeing cosmetic snow at best. A few
hundredths of freezing drizzle are possible, again in western WI,
early Monday morning.

After this disturbance moves east by midday Monday, we remain PoP
free through Christmas with gradually warming temperatures. While
the precipitation chances move out, the clouds will not as partly to
mostly cloudy skies are forecast to stick around for much of the
period. Despite the blanket of clouds and warming temperatures,
things should remain cool enough through the 25th to ensure a White
Christmas for most, but the same cannot be said for New Year`s Eve.
The day after Christmas, high temperatures will approach the upper
30s and rain could make an appearance driven by an upper-level
trough. A good amount of spread between models leads to great
uncertainty in when the best chance is for precipitation. The best
we can represent this at this time is to run with what the NBM
outputted: a several day period of 20-40% PoPs. As things near, this
timeframe will narrow. What we can say with medium confidence is
that the P-Type will be majority, if not all, rain with nighttime
lows near/slightly above freezing in areas where we anticipate
precipitation.

Things look briefly quiet again after the late week system before
the signal returns for what could be a wet New Year`s Eve. With
temperatures moderating closer to normal by that time, this could be
another wintry mix scenario. For now, this is just something to keep
an eye on for any holiday travel plans.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 525 AM CST Sun Dec 22 2024

CIGS have generally remained VFR throughout the night with the
exception of what is ongoing near STC, with a brief scattering
of the clouds in the middle of the day before we see a return to
CIGS that will gradually lower as a disturbance moves through by
the end of the period. A few sites will see chances for -SN with
the best chances for the northernmost sites. Winds will become
light and variable mid-day before turning 300-330 at or below
5kts once the disturbance moves through by the end of the
period. There is a small chance of freezing drizzle towards the
tail end of the period affecting primarily EAU.

KMSP...The main question is how far south does the -SN make it.
For now, kept a prob30 group going for the -SN potential, with
the better chances north of the terminal.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...MVFR/VFR. Wind S 5-10kts.
WED...MVFR/VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.
THU...MVFR/VFR, chc -RA/-SN. Wind SE 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...PV
AVIATION...TDH