Elk River, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

994
FXUS63 KMPX 090518
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1218 AM CDT Sat Aug 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated heat and humidity of today becomes noticeably less so
  starting Saturday, continuing into next week.

- A round of thunderstorms is likely late this evening into
  early Saturday morning, with a few storms possibly strong to
  severe.

- Much more tranquil weather conditions from late Saturday
  through much of next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1016 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

Thunderstorms are beginning to develop across western Minnesota
along a frontal boundary. The 09.00z MPX sounding shows a strong
cap (~24C at 800mb), but the profile out of ABR is more
favorable with considerably cooler temperatures aloft. The
convection that has managed to develop near KAXN has overcome
what capping does exist (although it`s been slow to intensify),
but appears that it`s becoming more organized. Anticipating
this line to fill in to the south over the next couple of hours
and continue to move to the northeast through early morning. A
Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued, with the main threats
being large hail initially before transitioning to more of a
damaging wind threat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 317 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025

A fairly extensive stratocumulus deck has lingered across
central-southern MN and western WI throughout the day in the
wake of early morning convection. In addition, this cloud cover
has generally remained north of a warm front wobbling over the
MN/IA border which has had a hard time pushing northward through
the day today. This has not only kept instability from rising
higher than expected but has also kept temps/dewpoints/heat
index values lower than expected. The first result of this has
been the early cancellation of all heat advisory headlines
across the WFO MPX coverage area. The next result has been lower
CAPE/higher CINH across the area, evidenced by showers trying
to move into southern MN from the FSD area that has been
weakening while shifting eastward and racing away from the
nearly north-south oriented cold front over the far eastern
Dakotas.

Nevertheless, there is still sufficient instability in advance
of the cold front per SPC analysis, including MUCAPE in the
4000-5000 j/kg range, over the southern 1/3 of MN that
additional storms could take advantage of later this evening
into the overnight hours should deep layer shear better align
with the progression of the surface cold front. There is still
plenty of uncertainty as to whether thunderstorms that develop
this evening over the eastern Dakotas and progress eastward
across central-southern MN can become surface based to tap into
the high instability. So while there is little doubt that
thunderstorms will develop this evening, thus having PoPs into
the Likely category, it is a matter of the storm strength and
them being elevated vs surface-based, which if surface-based,
they could then tap into the low-level MUCAPE and the strong
low-level jetting and bulk shear. So, overall a conditional and
uncertain scenario for severe weather is expected tonight. The
main hazard still looks to be damaging wind gusts, but large
hail and a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

The precipitation will have pushed through the bulk of the
coverage area by daybreak Saturday morning with only a few
generic (non- severe) thunderstorms possible by that point as
the cold front makes continued progress eastward through the day
Saturday. This will drop the precip chances across the area
from west to east and also make for cooler and less humid
conditions across the coverage area. Highs will only range from
the upper 70s to mid 80s on Saturday.

For next week, very similar day-to-day conditions are expected
with very few chances for precipitation. In fact, many
locations may well experience no precipitation for the entire
week. This is due to generally high pressure prevailing at the
surface, even despite the arrival of a frontal boundary midweek
that looks mainly dry, and weak ridging aloft to keep
appreciable trough axes away from the area. Highs will remain in
the upper 70s to mid 80s range with tolerable humidity levels.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sat Aug 9 2025

The first 6 or so hours of the period will be dealing with
ongoing TSRA across most of the sites with the exception of
AXN/RWF, with storms generally arriving earlier in the west and
later in the east. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions are possible as
storms move through, with VFR returning quickly behind the cold
front as skies clear out by the second half of the period. Winds
will shift towards 240-270 and weaken below 7kts behind the
front as well. We may need some short term AMDs to handle the
convection as the storms move through as we have yet to see the
line fully materialize along the cold front.

KMSP...Compared to the 00z TAF, the main change is a slight
timing difference in the TEMPO group for TSRA. We may see brief
MVFR/IFR conditions from TSRA. Otherwise we improve to FEW250
by 22-23z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind SW 5kts.
MON...VFR. Wind W 5kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts.
&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Dye
DISCUSSION...JPC
AVIATION...TDH