Duluth, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

050
FXUS63 KDLH 230207
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
807 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy freezing fog and rime ice on the North Shore into
  tonight.

- Light snow accumulations up to one inch along the Canadian
  border tonight.

- Gusty northwest winds on Tuesday.

- Messy winter storm with mixed precipitation possible for
  Christmas and Friday, with the potential for travel impacts.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 805 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Bumped up wind gusts slightly along the North Shore due to an
increasing signal in high resolution weather models for wind
gusts in excess of 35 mph Tuesday morning into early afternoon.
The reason for this increase is due to a combination of a tight
pressure gradient in the wake of a passing cold front and cold
advection behind the front pooling up colder air against the
higher terrain of the North Shore that should then accelerate
winds downslope into lower terrain. The potential for persistent
gusts of 45+ mph remains below 50% with this update, so have
held off on any Wind Advisory issuance. However, if this wind
gust signal continues to increase, a Wind Advisory may be
needed.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Moisture advection off Lake Superior continues to create areas
of freezing fog and rime ice on trees and elevated surfaces
along the higher terrain of the North Shore. Webcams indicate
lowered visibilities in the Sawtooth Mountains, and these
conditions are expected to persist through the evening. A shift
in the wind direction tonight will eventually help clear these
obstructions as a clipper system moves across the region from
the west.

This clipper system has trended slightly further north in recent
model runs, meaning the bulk of the accumulating snow will be
confined to areas right along the Canadian border. Total snow
accumulations through Tuesday morning are expected to be between
one quarter of an inch and one inch for the Borderlands. While
some high-resolution models have hinted at a window for mixed
precipitation or freezing drizzle, the probability has dropped
significantly, and the forecast currently favors primarily light
snow for the northernmost counties.

Behind the departing clipper, a tighter pressure gradient will
develop on Tuesday morning, leading to a period of brisk
northwest winds. Gusts between 25 and 35 mph are possible,
particularly along the North Shore where downslope enhancement
can occur. A warming trend then takes hold for Wednesday and
Thursday as an upper-level ridge builds over the central United
States. Afternoon high temperatures will likely reach the mid-
twenties to low thirties across much of the Northland. A weak
disturbance may pass through on Wednesday morning, though most
precipitation is currently projected to fall over the open
waters of Lake Superior and toward the Upper Peninsula of
Michigan.

Attention remains focused on a potentially impactful and messy
weather system arriving late on Christmas Day and continuing
through Friday. A push of warm air aloft will likely create a
melting layer, introducing the threat of multiple precipitation
types including rain, freezing rain, and heavy wet snow.
Significant uncertainty remains regarding the exact track of
this system, which will dictate where the heaviest accumulations
and most dangerous ice potential occur. Despite PWATs projected
to be in the 99th percentile, current indications suggest that
while snow amounts may be light for much of the region. The
Arrowhead, however, could see higher totals due to terrain and
lake enhancement. Another clipper system may follow closely
behind this storm for the weekend, potentially bringing
additional mixed precipitation to the Northland. Uncertainty in
this system is very high and will depend on how the Christmas
system develops. Global models show the following system also
not having a lot of moisture, which will limit accumulations.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 525 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Seeing mainly VFR cloud bases early this evening, with the
exception being some BKN IFR ceilings with onshore flow at DLH
and some fog/low ceilings along the North Shore. Light snow
showers are expected across far northern Minnesota later this
evening into part of the overnight hours. Have mention of the
best timing potential for this light snow in the INL TAF. Expect
accumulations to be less than one inch. There is a 20% chance to
see some stray snow at HIB, but potential was too low to include
in the TAF. Expect IFR ceilings to arrive behind the snow
tonight into early Tuesday morning for INL and HIB, though IFR
ceilings could briefly reach DLH and HYR Tuesday morning, as
well. Widespread MVFR elsewhere, with ceilings gradually
improving and scattering out to VFR towards midday and afternoon
Tuesday.

Lighter ESE winds this evening veer to westerly tonight and
northwesterly on Tuesday while increasing with gusts of 15-25 kt
for most later tonight into Tuesday along with the veering
winds. DLH gusts could push towards 30 kt, with gusts to around
35 kt along the North Shore daytime Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 805 PM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

There is an increasing signal in higher resolution weather
models for very gusty northwest winds developing along the
North Shore within a few miles of the shoreline in the wake of a
passing cold front Tuesday morning into early afternoon, with
some enhancement due to downslope flow off of the higher terrain
of the North Shore. This has increased confidence for gale-
force wind gusts to 50-60% from Silver Bay to Grand Portage
where a Gale Watch has been issued. The remainder of the
forecast for the nearshore zones of western Lake Superior
remains unchanged.

Previous Discussion: An easterly wind of 10 to 15 knots will
persist through this evening with waves of 1 to 2 feet. Winds
will turn southwest after midnight and then northwest by Tuesday
morning. Strong northwest winds are expected Tuesday with gusts
up to 30 knots, and potentially up to 35 knots near Grand
Marais. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all nearshore
zones. Waves will build to 3 to 5 feet in the Apostle Islands
on Tuesday before subsiding Tuesday night.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 4 PM CST Tuesday for LSZ121-
     143>148-150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 9 AM CST Tuesday for
     LSZ140>142.
     Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon for
     LSZ140>142.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Rothstein
DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...Rothstein
MARINE...Rothstein