Duluth, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

195
FXUS63 KDLH 051750
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1250 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Localized rain and snow showers today. Quick and minor snow
  accumulations most likely for the Borderland and Arrowhead.
  Snow showers last into Monday afternoon.

- Locally higher snowfall totals of 2-5" along the South Shore
  late tonight into Monday morning.

- Seasonably cold temperatures Tuesday morning being a few
  degrees either side of Zero.

- Next chance of precipitation Wednesday with a potential
  rain/snow mix.

- Extended Period Heads up: 40-60% chance of heavy precipitation
  primarily for Northwest Wisconsin Sunday April 12 to Monday
  April 13.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

A bit of a reprieve from the last several days of active weather
early this morning. Skies are trying to clear as yesterday`s system
pulls off to the east, with some lingering gusty northwest winds and
light snow around Lake Superior tapering off through this morning.

Weak ridging embedded within the upper level flow ahead of an
incoming clipper system will try its best to allow for some WAA
today, bringing high temperatures back above freezing into the 30s
and low 40s. Don`t get too comfortable though, as that
aforementioned clipper system is expected to push another wave of
precipitation into the Northland through this afternoon. Those warm
surface temperatures should lend themselves to steep low level lapse
rates and decent MUCAPE which could make for some more convective-y
precipitation, especially while the sun is up. At the earliest,
Koochiching County could see rain/snow showers beginning around noon
with precipitation then expanding and pushing southeast through the
afternoon and early evening, arriving into Hayward/Phillips in the 4-
6pm timeframe. There is some uncertainty on exactly where the
rain/snow line could end up as that will be influenced by just how
far north the noticeable WAA gets and the effects of dynamic cooling
once showers get going. With this forecast update, we have greater
coverage of rain showers during the afternoon outside of the MN
Arrowhead, with snow not becoming the dominant precipitation type
until later in the evening. Generally expecting a couple hundreds of
rain with a trace to 1" of snow by midnight Monday.  For those that
do see snow, quick reductions in visibility could be possible.

A second wave of upper level vorticity should push another round of
precipitation into the area going into Monday, this time mostly snow
as CAA wins the temperature battle. Arriving into northern MN early
Monday morning (12-3AM) and then pushing across the lake into NW WI
(2-5AM) this push should be somewhat more successful at snow
accumulation, though lingering warm surface temperatures from this
afternoon could initially play a limiting factor. Areas along
the Borderlands and MN Arrowhead could pick up a quick 0.5-2" by
sunrise Monday, and amounts along the South Shore could be
locally boosted by northwest winds giving a terrain bump to
several hours of more intense rates. 1-5" are possible in the
higher terrain of Bayfield, Ashland, and Iron County, greatest
in northern Iron County where a Winter Weather Advisory may be
needed. An extra diurnal boost Monday afternoon could lead to a
widespread afternoon strato-cumulus cloud field popping up for
several hours with some light snow showers possible for most
folks. The best synoptic support in that timeframe will be
moving over north-central to NE WI, where more robust snow
showers to near snow squalls could be possible.

Behind Monday`s precipitation, high pressure builds in quickly
bringing clear skies. Alongside robust CAA, temperatures should tank
into Tuesday morning. There is a 30-60% chance for low temperatures
to fall below zero for parts of NE MN Tuesday morning, and most of
the area will likely be in the single digits except those in very
close proximity to Lake Superior. The chill shouldn`t last for long
though, with afternoon highs returning above freezing.

An upper level cut off low and attending vort max look to barrel
down the Canadian Rockies into Wednesday, joining forces with
another weak surface low pressure system pulling gulf moisture up
the central Plains. This should be the catalyst for our next chance
of precipitation beginning Tuesday night and continuing on/off through
Thursday.  Mother Nature, the wiseacre that she is, is keeping the
meteorologists guessing as to whether this system will be winter or
spring themed. Latest trends, especially in the GEFS, have been
nudging the surface low pressure system further south - bringing sub-
freezing temperatures and areas of snow into the Northland. At the
moment, it looks like precipitation types could start as snow into
Wednesday morning and then switch over to a rain/snow mix Wednesday
and into Thursday. However, uncertainty remains high and storm
tracks are still adjusting in both placement and timing.

Looking ahead, we should generally see a warming trend into the
weekend with highs in the 40s and 50s and overnight lows starting to
play with the freezing line by Sunday/Monday. This should kick off
another round of thawing and snowmelt across the Northland (and
maybe nudge the leaf-out line a little closer). Late next weekend
into the week of April 13, longer range guidance suggests the
potential for a corridor of precipitation to set up from Texas to
the Great Lakes. The CPC 8-14 day hazard outlook puts much of the
Northland in a 20-60% risk area of heavy precipitation April 12-13
(greater chance in NW WI). In this timeframe, periodic rounds of
locally heavy rain and thunderstorms are possible, but uncertainty
is high as to whether or not that would actually get as far north as
our area. If it does, it could enhance area streamflow and river
levels, especially if combined with snowmelt (most likely for MN
Arrowhead and portions of the South Shore). Hydrologic ensemble
output does show the potential (5-50% chance) for some rivers along
the South Shore to rise near action stage in this timeframe.
Something to keep an eye on!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

VFR conditions prevail early this afternoon ahead of incoming
rain and snow showers later this afternoon and especially this
evening to overnight hours. Expect a period of MVFR ceilings
through tonight as a clipper passes overhead. Winds will shift
from westerly this afternoon to northerly from 06-12Z tonight.
Expect gusty northerly winds through Monday daytime. Scattered
to broken low-end VFR to high-end MVFR ceilings last through
much of Monday behind the clipper. Snow showers tomorrow are
likely for the South Shore and Arrowhead.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEARSHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

North to northwest winds return Monday, gusting again
20-30knots so Small Craft Advisories have again been issued late
tonight through Monday afternoon. Peak winds are most likely
Monday morning into midday, and then those winds should start to
weaken Monday afternoon. Elevated wave heights linger last along
the South Shore Monday evening. Tuesday should feature mostly
weak winds, becoming southerly through the day. With those south
winds, there still could be some stronger gusts up to 20 knots
between Grand Portage and Isle Royale.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM CDT Monday for
     LSZ140>146.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM CDT Monday for LSZ147-
     148-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Levens
AVIATION...NLy
MARINE...NLy