Duluth, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

885
FXUS63 KDLH 140002
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
602 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light showers taper off this evening with much of northwest
  Wisconsin remaining dry.

- High pressure will bring dry conditions for Thursday through
  Saturday along with well above normal temperatures.

- Chances increasing for an area of low pressure to affect the
  region next week with snow possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 148 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024

Weak low pressure was observed early this afternoon along the
Buffalo Ridge in eastern South Dakota with a more organized area
of low pressure to the south in northwestern Kansas at the end
of an occluded front. An area of showers was seen on radar
extending from central Minnesota into north-central Minnesota.
Activity has shown a weakening trend over the past few hours in
association with a decrease in frontogenesis over the region.
CAMs still try to blossom the shower activity up as the
afternoon progresses, but confidence on this is decreasing with
the downward frontogenesis trend. Any showers that do form will
taper off this evening with mainly dry conditions returning for
the early morning hours.

High pressure then builds in for Thursday and Friday along with
upper level ridging. This will lead to increasing temperatures
with highs in the 40s Thursday and Friday with some 50s in
southern areas by Saturday. These temperatures will be around 10
to 15 degrees above normal. Overnight lows will also be on the
warm side with readings generally remaining in the 30s each
night. Normal lows this time of year are in the middle to lower
20s.

A weak shortwave and upper low will pass through the region for
Saturday night into Sunday. While there will be chances for
light rain during this period, around 10-40%, chances have been
decreasing as the system looks to be a bit drier than previous
runs. Any rainfall amounts will only be around a few hundredths
of an inch, highest along the International Border. With the low
tracking to the north of the Northland and high pressure quickly
arriving behind it, there will be no cool down behind this
system with highs Sunday and Monday remaining in the 40s and
lower 50s.

Attention then turns to a possible system that may affect much
of the Central CONUS into the Great Lakes for much of next week.
A deep trough will bring an area of low pressure from the
Southern Plains into the western Great Lakes during the middle
portion of next week. ECMWF and GFS cluster analysis has begun
to tighten over the last 12 to 24 hours with clustering focusing
on the Iowa area. The GEFS still has much more spread than the
ECMWF with possible low locations ranging from northern Oklahoma
to northern Wisconsin by 12z Tuesday. A track to the south of
the Northland to the east would put us on the backside of the
system with cooler air pushing into the Upper Midwest during
this time period. Still much too early to talk specifics, but a
period of precipitation will be possible next week with the
potential for snowfall with it as well. With the warm air in
place leading up to this, there is very high uncertainty on how
much snow may occur, if any, but there is the potential for
accumulating snow somewhere in the Northern Plains to Upper
Midwest with this system.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 554 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024

A north to south oriented band of light rain is moving eastward
across the Northland this evening, with a mix of IFR and MVFR
cigs at MN terminals. This band will continue eastward this
evening, decreasing in coverage and intensity through 06Z.
Localized fog is possible overnight, but for now have not
included vis reductions at any forecast site. Expect lower cigs
to remain over the area through Thursday.

At HYR, cigs lower to around 3kft around 12Z, but rain coverage
is expected to decrease and rain chances are too low to include
at this time.

Winds remain light and variable through the forecast period for
all terminals.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 148 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024

Winds will continue to diminish tonight out of the southeast at
5 to 10 knots and then turn northeasterly Thursday at 5 to 15
knots. Variable winds are then expected for Thursday night into
Friday at around 10 knots or less. Southeast winds are expected
to ramp up on Saturday to 10 to 20 knots with stronger westerly
winds on Sunday. Conditions Sunday will likely be hazardous to
small craft.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BJH
AVIATION...HA
MARINE...BJH