Brooklyn Park, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

648
FXUS63 KMPX 142038
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
338 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple chances for thunderstorms & showers through early next
  week.

- Primary concern will be heavy rainfall, but a severe threat
  will be possible during this period.

- A trend to a drier, cooler pattern setting in by the middle of
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Areas of isolated showers have developed over the last few hours.
These are primarily light & have often been virga, but there is more
meaningful rain to fall over the next several days. Temperatures
have been slow to warm up today with broken to overcast clouds
overhead. High temperatures will top out in the lower 80s for most
of us. A better chance for isolated showers to move through this
evening from W MN into W WI. There is a marginal risk for hail, but
there is a remnant MCV that may provide a local enhancement to the
shear profile, which could lead to a locally higher threat of a
strong/severe storm across portions of southwestern Minnesota this
evening. A brief dry stretch will occur overnight before another
round of isolated showers early Friday morning.

On Friday, there will be an increasing chance for rain over the
afternoon and into the evening hours, but most should stay dry
during business hours. The most notable change will be the increase
in moisture & humidity. How bad will it be? Our forecast has surface
dew points increasing into the lower 70s Friday afternoon. Add in
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s & it`ll be a warm one! Our
attention will turn to the "main event" of this forecast period
Friday night through Monday morning. The influx of moisture & a
parade of shortwaves will fuel the multiple rounds of thunderstorms
and showers between Friday night & Monday morning.

Friday evening through Saturday morning will be the first round of
convection. A mid-level jet streak on top of the northern edge of
the ridge will provide broad ascent across the Upper Midwest. The
kicker will arrive in the form of a weak mid-level shortwave trough
that`ll be embedded within the jet. The significant influx of
moisture will allow strong instability to pool along & south of the
frontal boundary. This shortwave should kick start convection Friday
evening across portions of Minnesota, where a Marginal risk (1 of 5)
is in place. Recent trends in guidance support convection congealing
into an MCS as it moves into Wisconsin - increasing the potential
for damaging winds in the process. The SPC introduced a Slight risk
(level 2 of 5) over western & central Wisconsin for the increased
wind threat with an MCS. The latest HRRR would suggest a northern
Wisconsin would experience the round of severe late Friday while an
MCS moves through MN into W WI Saturday morning... There is a lot of
uncertainty on what exactly unfolds but there is a decent signal for
severe given the large amounts of CAPE & adequate bulk shear. The
heavy rainfall threat will begin to increase in addition to the
severe threat. Heavy rain will be a bigger concern the later we get
into the weekend. Friday night - Saturday AM looks like things
should move, but given high PW values of 1.75" to 2.0", any
convection will likely be able to produce efficient rainfall while
having a plenty of additional "fuel".

Saturday should dry out during the late morning thru mid afternoon
hours for most folks. There is likely to be some isolated showery-
storm garbage somewhere given the stationary boundary directly
overhead. Another round of convection will be triggered by a less
impressive shortwave Saturday night. This will likely be more of a
heavy rain threat than severe - but SPC day 3 has a Marginal Risk.
There is uncertainty today on where storms will track over the next
three days, it wouldn`t surprise me if at some point there will be a
need for a flash flood watch once forecast confidence increases to a
point where we can identify an area of concern. Sunday will will be
similar to Saturday with a chance of scattered thunderstorms
throughout the day but a better signal for sustained showers &
storms overnight into Monday morning. To me this is the best chance
for heavy rain & potential flash flooding as things stand as of 3PM
Thursday afternoon. There is a better defined wave that`ll move
through and push out the boundary by Monday afternoon. Given the
long duration w/multiple rounds of storms/showers - there could be
several areas that receive 1 to 3" by Monday morning with locally
higher amounts of 3 to 5" not out of the realm of possibility.
Looking past Monday, there is a signal that we`ll a drier & cooler
(or less humid) pattern will take hold by the middle of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 106 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

Tricky TAF period with respect to nuisance passing SHRA/TSRA
this evening and potentially during the early morning hours.
Short-term models have mostly hinted at a 18z-00z 6-hour window
from west to east across the TAF sites, but while some echoes
do show up on KMPX radar, some sites in the eastern Dakotas into
SW MN have reported nothing or just a few sprinkles. Still,
going into the afternoon-evening hours, the potential is there
for some showers to grow into ones that produce TS or some brief
mod/heavy rain so did include the mention for this afternoon-
evening. It is the overnight that has much less confidence to
mention due to a wide spread in model solution timing/location.
Thus, will monitor radar trends and adjust the thinking as
needed. Breezy SE winds this afternoon will diminish to 5-10kts
overnight into tomorrow.

KMSP...Still advertising a chance of showers for late this
afternoon into this evening but the showers approaching from the
west continue to diminish as they shift east. The bigger
question is whether any additional showers/storms develop late
evening into the early morning hours. That is a viable
possibility but there is too much model uncertainty to even add
a PROB30 at this time. Will need to see how this current round
evolves and then if any additional convection develops upstream
from the terminal before going ahead with adding another round
of precipitation to the TAF.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...Mainly VFR. Chc MVFR/-TSRA early. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
SUN...Mainly VFR. Chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind E 10-15 kts.
MON...Mainly VFR. Chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind shifting from S to W to
N, around 10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...JPC