Brooklyn Center, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

809
FXUS63 KMPX 230807
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
307 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Extreme heat has ended with temperatures returning to near
  or slightly below average this week.

- A few strong storms possible this afternoon across southeast
  Minnesota into western Wisconsin.

- Stormy pattern returns for the middle of the week, with heavy
  rain possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

The main story for today is a cold front which has reached near
I-35 early this morning and will push into western Wisconsin and
southeast Minnesota through the day. This front has brought an
end to the extreme heat and will usher in much more comfortable
temperatures for most of the week, with highs generally in the
middle to upper 70s and lows in the 50s and 60s through
Thursday. This front has also been responsible for scattered
showers and storms overnight with the bulk of the forcing
shifting into northeast MN early this morning. Another round of
storms will likely fire along the front later this afternoon as
it enters far southern Minnesota and into western and central
Wisconsin. A few storms may clip eastern portions of the local
forecast area around Red Wing and Eau Claire, but most of this
activity should stay focused further south and east into Iowa
and southern Wisconsin.

The surface frontal boundary will eventually stall near I-80 on
Tuesday and then slowly lift back north toward I-90 by
Wednesday evening. Meanwhile several disturbances will track
across the area within broad southwesterly upper flow, which
will likely set the stage for a rather active thunderstorm
pattern through the middle of the week. Given the relative
subtle and transient nature of these disturbances, timing exact
rain chances will be tricky, with several chances for storms
likely between roughly midnight Tuesday night through midnight
Thursday. Ingredients for heavy rain rates are looking
impressive, particularly Wednesday night when precipitable water
values could approach 2 inches and thermal/moisture profiles
look very favorable for tropical-like rainfall rates. This could
lead to several inches of rain in some areas, particularly
if/where any training of storms occur, which appears possible.
Will need to keep an eye on how things evolve through the week
to get a more detailed idea of the heavy rain and flooding
threat, as well as any severe thunderstorm potential.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1249 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Showers/thunderstorms developing over western MN will drift NE,
potentially impacting a number of TAF sites through the
overnight hours with brief MVFR-worthy conditions. Higher
confidence in the TSRA impacting TAF sites as allowed several
PROB30s to be converted to TEMPOs for the first 6-9 hrs of some
TAFs. Otherwise, confidence remains fairly low on the occurrence
of TSRA at sites during the afternoon-evening hours, so have
been more judicious on that side. Otherwise, as the cold front
responsible for the storms shifts east, ceilings will likely
drop to MVFR range for much of the morning into mid-afternoon
hours before clearing prevails. Some storms may impact EAU late
in the period but confidence too low to include at this point.
Winds will remain generally NW, with sustained speeds in the
10-15kt range with higher gusts.

KMSP...VFR with LLWS conditions to start, but LLWS conditions
abate shortly after initialization. Only concern for
precipitation comes during the middle-to-late portions of the
morning push as some storms over western MN may make a run for
eastern MN after sunrise. With the frontal passage, ceilings are
likely to drop to MVFR range late morning followed by ceilings
lifting/clearing going into the afternoon hours.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...SHRA/MVFR. Chc TSRA. Wind E 5-15kts.
THU...SHRA/MVFR. Chc TSRA. Wind E 5-15kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind variable 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...DPH
AVIATION...JPC