Bloomington, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

575
FXUS63 KMPX 120936
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
436 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple rounds of rain through Friday afternoon. Rainfall
  totals of 1-2" most likely, with upwards of 4" possible.

- Heaviest rain currently expected over central MN, though
  further shifts in the heaviest rainfall axis are still
  possible.

- Active pattern will continue, with a brief break in rain
  chances during the day on Saturday, but continuous rain
  chances return Saturday night through the middle of next week,
  with additional chances for strong/severe storms and heavy
  rain as well.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 431 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

A frontal boundary has remained stalled over northern Iowa through
the night, with on/off over running showers impacting southern MN
through the night. The main instability gradient has remained in
Iowa, with the stronger convection remaining down there through the
night as a result. As we go through the day, this front will nudge
north, with the HREF mean mlCAPE showing this front getting about as
far north as the US-14 corridor in southern MN. The Marginal Risk in
the D1 SPC convective outlook basically brackets where this front is
expected to settle into today. We do see from the HREF the potential
for a few strong cells this afternoon along the boundary in south
central MN, though the more robust severe signal from the HREF is
over from central SoDak down into Nebraska, where mlCAPE values will
be more 2000-3000 j/kg as opposed to our 1000-1500 j/kg.

For tonight, the main concern turns to the heavy rain risk. A
shortwave near the ND/SD border will kick off the convection, but
where it goes from there is still uncertain. The h85 & h7 warm front
will be laid out across central MN, but the surface warm front
and its stronger instability will still be down across southern
MN. The WPC QPF follows the forcing, with the heaviest QPF
falling across central MN, along the aforementioned h85/h7
forcing. However, the 06z HRRR and RRFS shifted south with the
heaviest precip as they drive the storms that develop in the
Dakotas more into the instability gradient. A good rule of
thumb for forecasting convection in the warm season is to lean
toward the instability. The WPC QPF was already doing this, but
the HRRR/RRFS would suggest we could see QPF shift south closer
to the TC metro if storms react more to the instability than
the forcing. QPF wise, this still looks to be a widespread band
of 1-3" of rain, with some 4-5" amounts possible as well.
However, with antecedent conditions not overly saturated, for us
to see much of a flash flood threat, we need to see something
like the 6z HRRR with the heavy precip axis coming through the
Twin Cities metro, which would setup an urban flooding scenario.

Going into Friday, although we are only in a general thunder, there
does look to be a sneaky severe weather setup in southeast MN. The
HREF shows southeast MN remaining to the east of the cold front in
the warm sector, with dewpoints in the mid 60s and highs in the
lower to possibly mid 80s. This results in mlCAPE values again
pushing 1500 j/kg. The big limiting factor for Friday is the
wind field along the front looks rather baggy, with convergence
weak, but you can`t sleep on the potential for a few feisty
storms on Friday as well down toward Faribault and Albert Lea.

For the weekend and beyond, it looks very active, with this front
continuing to bounce around the region. EPS mean h2 winds show that
the upper jet will remain parked across the northern CONUS, which
means we will get a steady stream of shortwaves and potential foci
for convection. The day on Saturday still looks dry, but by Saturday
night the GEM & ECMWF are already showing the potential for another
LLJ WAA type convection setup and we`re off and running with pretty
much continuous chances for precip through pretty much all of next
week. There isn`t great model agreement on any time period on when
any of these waves will impact the area, but we`ll basically be
primed for strong to severe storms and heavy rainfall for any sort
of organized system we are able to pull together. All we can say is
you can turn those sprinklers off.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Showers southeast of the TAF sites this morning, but expect
them to lift north today and tonight. Vis reductions due to
smoke and local fog this morning before rain becomes more
prevalent though the afternoon. Thunderstorm potential increases
this evening into the overnight hours.

KMSP...Haze/smoke is possible this morning with some smoke and
lower visibilities around. Shower activity will remain south of
KMSP this morning, but activity will begin to return this
afternoon. More robust thunderstorm activity is possible
tonight, but models outlooks have a lot of variability with the
location of showers and thunderstorms today. The best chance
currently is to the north of KMSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...RA/MVFR likely, chc TSRA/IFR early. Wind ENE 5-10 kts.
SAT...MVFR clouds/-RA with IFR possible early, then VFR. Wind E
5-10 kts.
SUN...VFR with MVFR possible. Wind SE at 10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...Borghoff