Warren, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
|
NWS Forecast for Warren MI
National Weather Service Forecast for:
Warren MI
Issued by: National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac, MI |
Updated: 9:13 pm EDT Jul 25, 2025 |
|
Overnight
 Chance T-storms
|
Saturday
 Chance T-storms then Showers Likely
|
Saturday Night
 Showers Likely
|
Sunday
 Mostly Sunny
|
Sunday Night
 Mostly Clear
|
Monday
 Sunny then Chance T-storms
|
Monday Night
 Chance T-storms then Mostly Clear
|
Tuesday
 Sunny
|
Tuesday Night
 Partly Cloudy
|
Lo 69 °F |
Hi 85 °F |
Lo 71 °F |
Hi 89 °F |
Lo 72 °F |
Hi 93 °F |
Lo 73 °F |
Hi 91 °F |
Lo 68 °F |
|
Hazardous Weather Outlook
Overnight
|
A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 69. Light east northeast wind. Chance of precipitation is 40%. |
Saturday
|
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1pm, then showers likely between 1pm and 2pm, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 85. Calm wind becoming south southeast around 6 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. |
Saturday Night
|
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 9pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 9pm and 11pm, then a chance of showers after 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. West southwest wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. |
Sunday
|
Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. West southwest wind around 6 mph. |
Sunday Night
|
Mostly clear, with a low around 72. Light and variable wind. |
Monday
|
A chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 93. Chance of precipitation is 30%. |
Monday Night
|
A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 8pm. Mostly clear, with a low around 73. Chance of precipitation is 30%. |
Tuesday
|
Sunny, with a high near 91. |
Tuesday Night
|
Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. |
Wednesday
|
A chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 82. |
Wednesday Night
|
Partly cloudy, with a low around 61. |
Thursday
|
Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. |
Thursday Night
|
Mostly clear, with a low around 58. |
Friday
|
Sunny, with a high near 80. |
Forecast from NOAA-NWS
for Warren MI.
|
Weather Forecast Discussion
321
FXUS63 KDTX 260428
AFDDTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1228 AM EDT Sat Jul 26 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are likely as
activity moves in from the Midwest early Saturday continuing through
Saturday night. A few storms could approach severe wind intensity,
however torrential rainfall and localized flooding remain the
primary hazard.
- Heat and humidity build Sunday and Monday as high temperatures
return to the lower 90s with heat index near 100 through early next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms across far southern Lower Mi
will attempt to lift northward into metro Detroit overnight amidst a
broad region of low to mid level moisture advection. Model soundings
have some degree of indication in the expansion of an MVFR based
stratus deck during the early morning hours. A more pronounced mid
level short wave is forecast to track from Iowa early this morning
and across Se Mi this afternoon, supporting an increase in coverage
and intensity of afternoon showers and thunderstorms within a deep
moist environment.
For DTW/D21 Convection...Showers and scattered thunderstorms now
approaching metro will affect the region through at least the first
couple hours of the TAF period. There is a potential for more
widespread convection today. While the timing carries some degree of
uncertainty, the most likely time period for a convective response
will be tied to the approach of a mid level short wave, mid
afternoon to early evening.
THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* Moderate in ceilings aob 5000 feet tonight and Saturday.
* Low in thunderstorms this morning. Moderate this afternoon and
evening.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 PM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025
DISCUSSION...
A nearly stalled frontal boundary is the forecast focus as it wavers
over southern Lower Mi this weekend. Associated convective potential
and heavy rainfall are highlights, although temporal and spatial
details remain challenging to pin down.
So far today, the front is leaking slowly southward under
considerable mid and high clouds south of I-69. Signs of a modest
air mass contrast are more visible farther north where the Tri
Cities and northern Thumb enjoy sun and lower humidity. HREF mean
surface Td and MSLP show minor additional southward dry air
advection as the surface trough settles toward the Ohio border, but
not until later this evening under the last bit of confluent flow
aloft. That means a late afternoon and evening time window remains
open for ongoing showers and thunderstorms to increase coverage,
although in a general weakly forced environment with adequate
instability. With some thinning of mid/high clouds, press time meso
analysis suggests slight overachievement on HREF output that shows
mean MLCAPE struggling to hold 1000 J/kg through late afternoon and
early evening peak heating. What is not lacking is moisture as shown
in the impressive 12Z DTX sounding that measured 1.82 inch PW, that
is still on the northern fringe of the near 2.25 inch moisture axis
centered near the IN/OH border. Clusters of surface based convection
along and south of the front may end up lacking organization for
severe intensity but will be fully capable of heavy rainfall and
localized flooding through the evening, focused mainly along and
south of the I-96/I-94 corridor.
A transition to nocturnal/elevated convection is clarified slightly
by the short wave/MCV hybrid moving across the central Plains this
afternoon, which is expected to continue eastward tonight. It
combines with a slight backing of larger scale flow aloft to
initiate a northward shift of the surface front toward the I-69
corridor Saturday morning. This should in turn favor a general track
of convective clusters farther north from the Midwest toward central
Lower Mi. After that, details are iffy on coverage/longevity and
arrival timing ranging from after 12Z Saturday through the afternoon
while transitioning back to surface based convection. One thing that
is not changing is the magnitude of the larger scale moisture axis
still up near 2.25 inch PW in HREF mean projections Saturday and
Saturday night. Potential heavy rainfall and flooding remain the
primary hazard in this pattern, although shorter timeframes will be
needed to identify higher risk areas. A Marginal Risk for severe
storms also continues mainly south of M-59 down toward the surface
based instability axis projected south of the Ohio border Saturday
afternoon and evening where precip loaded damaging wind is possible
from any stronger multicell clusters.
Passage of the MCV augmented mid level wave facilitates another
southward shift of the surface front Saturday night. Nebulous high
pressure follows over Lower Mi Sunday but with minimal air mass
change as T/Td guidance hold near 90 and lower 70s respectively.
Heat and humidity then build even more by Monday as SW flow
increases ahead of the next northern Ontario low pressure and
frontal system for mid week.
MARINE...
A surface cold front remains stalled between Lake St Clair and Lake
Erie while weak surface high pressure (1018mb) tracks across the
northern Great Lakes. Combination of these features maintains light
northerly flow and dry weather for Lake Huron through tonight. The
front is denoted by both a shift to southwest flow and a developing
band of inland showers/embedded thunderstorms. This convection will
expand east through the evening with impacts mostly confined to Lake
St Clair and western Lake Erie. Heavy rain is the main threat,
although an isolated wind gust over 30 knots cannot be ruled out
this evening. The high drifts into Ontario overnight with winds
becoming ESE by early Saturday morning, and eventually SW as the
front lifts back north as a warm front during the day. This expands
storm chances up through Saginaw Bay and adjacent open waters of
Lake Huron. Isolated strong to severe storms will again be possible
Saturday afternoon-evening, capable of wind gusts over 40 knots and
large hail over an inch. Building high pressure over southeast CONUS
helps to limit precipitation chances for Sunday by establishing a
capping inversion, although a full pattern shift is not expected
until Tuesday of next week.
HYDROLOGY...
A weak but moisture laden front stalls near the Ohio border tonight
while serving as the focus for showers and thunderstorms. Locally
heavy rainfall is likely under any storm given the still humid
airmass in place, although focusing activity mainly along and south
of the I-96/I-94 corridor. The front lifts back north Saturday as
warm front ushering hot and humid conditions back over the entire
region. The anomalously moist airmass overspreads the region while
still carrying PW around 2" in addition to warm cloud depths
supporting efficient rainfall rates. An upper level wave moving out
of the Plains and into the Great Lakes generates at least scattered
showers and storms focused in the afternoon-evening Saturday. There
remains forecast uncertainty on timing, location, and duration of
storms, although rainfall rate in excess of 2"/hr is likely under
the strongest storms. Localized flooding is possible, especially in
urban and low lying/flood prone areas. More impactful flooding is
possible should storms train over the same locations.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....SC
DISCUSSION...BT
MARINE.......MV
HYDROLOGY....BT
You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.
View a Different U.S. Forecast Discussion Location
(In alphabetical order by state)
|
|
|
|