Warren, Michigan 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

780
FXUS63 KDTX 090344
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1144 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet weather through the rest of the work week with temperatures
  near normal.

- There is a chance of frost tonight, Wednesday night and Thursday
  night particularly away from Lake Huron.

- Precipitation chances return for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...

High pressure will expand across Lower Michigan from the northwest
during the course of the day Wednesday. Ample dry air associated
with this high will support mainly clear skies. There will be a
slight increase in west-northwest wind to 10 to 12 knots by
Wednesday afternoon with the growth of the daytime mixed layer.

For DTW/D21 Convection... No thunderstorms expected.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 329 PM EDT Tue Oct 8 2024

DISCUSSION...

A passing shortwave around upper low pressure near James Bay may
bring a few light showers to the tip of the Thumb late today into
tonight with some continuation into Wednesday morning as
temperatures/cloud depth support very minor lake effect activity
(most of which will remain east). Otherwise, mainly clear skies
further south and west with areas of frost developing late tonight,
especially over northwest portions of the forecast area. Further
south, patchy frost will possible into the M-59 corridor region.

High pressure will then build into the area Wednesday and Thursday.
Another frosty night can be expected Wednesday night with the clear
and calm conditions associated with this high pressure. Milder
overnight temperatures can be expected late this week as southwest
flow ensues in the wake of this passing high pressure. Maximum
temperatures will range in the 60s within this weather regime and
climb briefly into the 70s on Friday in advance of the next cold
front which will settle south through the region overnight Friday
night.

This front will be largely dry, but increased rain chances will
exist into the latter half of the weekend as a much stronger cold
front is driven through the area as an influx of northern stream
shortwave energy leads to strong high falls. A continued push of
shortwave/jet energy will then dig out a prominent upper level
trough over the area into early next week. This will bring cooler
readings with highs in the 50s Sunday into Monday and lows back into
the 30s during the same time frame.

MARINE...

Cool northwesterly flow prevails over the warmer lake waters of Lake
Huron which has maintained elevated mixing depths and over lake
instability. Sustained northwest flow around 20 knots with gusts of
25 knots, isolated 30 knots, will persist through the bulk of the
day tomorrow. Lake effect rain showers also remain possible this
afternoon and evening across the southern Lake Huron basin, where a
very low chance for an isolated waterspout will also exist.

Wind direction will veer a little more northerly through tomorrow,
which will result in elevated wave heights across portions of the
Thumb. A Small Craft Advisory will go in effect from the outer
Saginaw Bay to Port Sanilac as wave heights breach the four ft.
threshold. High pressure then builds in over the Great Lakes through
Thursday morning, relaxing wind speeds and diminishing the higher
end gust potential.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT Wednesday for MIZ047-048-053-054-
     060>062.

Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Wednesday to 4 AM EDT Thursday for
     LHZ421-442.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Wednesday to 4 AM EDT Thursday for
     LHZ441.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
DISCUSSION...DG
MARINE.......AM


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